US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

[Irvine511]

Really, tho, it’s unpacking the courts. Because McConnell and Co have been packing them for years.

Might makes right. That’s how it goes now.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Also, while we're continuing to rant about things, if the Democrats win, can there be a new law/regulation/whatever that bans politicians from firing guns in their political ads? 'Cause there's one for this asshole Jason Lewis who's running up in Minnesota (seriously, if you aren't familiar with him, read up, he's a real piece of work), and his wife's in it with him, and he's going on about how he'll protect the police and people's Second Amendment rights and blah, blah, blah.

And then at the end he's firing a gun as a way to prove how determined he is to defend that stuff. It's obnoxious as hell and if I have to see it one more time I'm going to throw something at my screen. At this point I just mute the TV whenever it comes on. It just screams threatening, and given we're in a time when we've got people actively plotting to kidnap governors and whatnot, the last thing we need is some jackass firing guns in their political ads to show how "tough" they are.

ETA:; Found the ad, here it is:

https://twitter.com/LewisForMN/status/1319125528276881408

 

[anitram]

Ok there Dollarama James Bond.

 

[womanfish]

Go Bloomie!

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1321050753839124482

New: Bloomberg funding a last-minute TV blitz in TEXAS & OHIO to boost Biden in the biggest red states.

~$15 million in a week. Main theme is Trump’s covid failure. Big Spanish-language component in TX.

His polling found Trump w/tiny leads in both states

 

[Hewson]

His polling found Trump w/tiny hands on both arms

Fixed

 

[Irvine511]

Go, Bloombie. Go!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/...ce=articleShare#click=https://t.co/vCI8NxhytY

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Hey GOP your Hillary obsession is in need of some psychological intervention. Among so many other things that are.

 

[womanfish]

So I'm hearing that Dems that have been working on the ground in TX are saying that their target for voter turnout is getting as near to 12 million as possible, and they think that is the magic number to flip the state blue. Right now, they stand at 7.8 million, so it will be a long haul to get near 12 million. But I believe there are still about 56% or more of registered voters that can still cast a ballot.

 

[womanfish]

Good polling so far this morning

Civiqs
GA - Biden +5
PA - Biden +7

FL Atlantic
FL - Biden +2

UNLV Business
NV - Biden +9

 

[womanfish]

oops, double post

 

[womanfish]

feeeeeel the delusion

https://twitter.com/WatchChad/status/1320690991242846209

 

[womanfish]

feeeeeel the delusion

https://twitter.com/WatchChad/status/1320690991242846209

 

[LuckyNumber7]

California will go red, but I’m not certain about VA. That’s a tricky librul style right

[emoji28]

 

[gump]

I really want to see PA get to at least +6 by next Tuesday.

 

[gump]

California will go red, but I’m not certain about VA. That’s a tricky librul style right

[emoji28]

That common 30-point polling error.

 

[womanfish]

I really want to see PA get to at least +6 by next Tuesday.

I think we are already there. There actually has been an upward trend for PA over the last 5 days. Back on the 15th to the 20th, you were seeing a lot of +3's and +5's. Over the last week, taking A and B rated pollsters, the average is +7.

 

[gump]

I think we are already there. There actually has been an upward trend for PA over the last 5 days. Back on the 15th to the 20th, you were seeing a lot of +3's and +5's. Over the last week, taking A and B rated pollsters, the average is +7.

I trust the 538 polling average more on this because they avoid arbitrary criteria for adding or excluding polls, and they show some tightening of the PA race still.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Go. Vote. Win.

https://twitter.com/JustinNBC4/status/1321063036011032577?s=19

 

[DaveC]

everything about the washington basketball team was so much cooler when they were called the bullets.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

You and the majority of our fan base agree.

 

[LemonMelon]

66 million votes with a week to go. Should hit 50% of 2016 in the next couple days.

 

[womanfish]

I trust the 538 polling average more on this because they avoid arbitrary criteria for adding or excluding polls, and they show some tightening of the PA race still.

View attachment 12665

oh yeah, me too. I'm using 538. My point was that the average is still being pulled down by some poorer polling a week or two ago. Recent polls (post debate) seem to be settling right around +7.
So I guess Biden's monumental blunder of talking about transitioning from fossil fuels really hurt him in PA.

I also really like The Economist. I think that G Elliott Morris is an even better analyst than Nate Silver. He has quite a few issues with how 538 does their calculations. So I like to look at both and sort of see how they agree and differ. Right now, they have PA at +6.8. That's closer to what i think the real number is. But we will see. Here's the link to Economists PA page.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/pennsylvania


But yes, i agree it would be great to see the overall average tick up over the week.

Today is last day of early voting in PA, so after today... we just have to wait and see what happens on Election Day.

 

[womanfish]

Go. Vote. Win.

https://twitter.com/JustinNBC4/status/1321063036011032577?s=19

Will Biden win by 60 or 70 points...??

 

[anitram]

His polling found Trump w/tiny leads in both states

Bloomberg's internal polling is impeccable so if he sees that TX and OH are within reach, I believe it.

A lot of people shat on him for not spending more $ but frankly he's a shrewd businessman and I 100% believe that his internal polling outfit which he built by poaching from the best has this in the bag for Biden. Why throw $ if/when not needed - he didn't become filthy rich by doing so.

These last minute buys could be crucial. He can afford to spend even more $, should do so.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Will Biden win by 60 or 70 points...??

Well 2016 was 85 sooooo

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Will Biden win by 60 or 70 points...??

85 in dc for sure

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I would not be shocked if DC was 90+. If you're here and you're pro trump you're likely registered somewhere else.

 

[gump]

Kavanaugh is not even trying to hide his partisanship. Incredible stuff.

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1320933212005294081

[TWEET]1320933212005294081[/TWEET]

Not to mention that he was on George W Bush's legal team that managed to get votes added to the count by Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[womanfish]

Well 2016 was 85 sooooo

oh shit, i knew it was overwhelming, but I haven't paid much attention to the results there.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Nobody does