US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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I didn't mail my ballot. I dropped it in the indoor dropbox right outside the town clerk's office. First week in October.

I checked the status of it online yesterday, it's been accepted. Some places do signature verification, so it's important to check the status of your mail in ballot.
 
She's a Republican

Lisa Kennedy Montgomery (born September 8, 1972)(referred to as Kennedy) is an American political commentator, radio personality, author, and former MTV VJ. As of January 2015, she is the host of Kennedy on the Fox Business Network. Kennedy occasionally hosts Outnumbered on the Fox News Channel, and is a frequent panelist on that network's show The Five. She was the host of MTV's now-defunct daily late-night alternative-rock program Alternative Nation throughout much of the 1990s.

Sorry didn't remove the numbers

Kennedy is a libertarian and a registered Republican.[10]

She is a supporter of same-sex marriage,[23][24] and officiated at the wedding of fellow Fox contributor Guy Benson to fiancé Adam Wise.[25][26] She also supports privatized Social Security.[27] She opposes the "war on drugs" and bureaucratic regulation.[28] She is critical of neoconservatism.[29]

At MTV's 1993 Rock 'n' Roll Inaugural Ball for Bill Clinton, she chanted, "Nixon now! Nixon now!" whenever the Clintons went on stage.[30] Along with being a fan of Richard Nixon, she supported Dan Quayle and Bob Dole.[31] She was a speaker at the 1996 Republican National Convention.[32]

She later abandoned social conservatism, saying, "Social conservatism was really bringing me down, and I realized, as time went on, that I wasn't a Bush conservative. I was really a libertarian."[28][33] She was first introduced to libertarianism when Kurt Loder suggested she read Ayn Rand's Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology.[34] She actively supported Gary Johnson in both the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections.[35]

In March 2012, Reason published an article by Kennedy saying atheism is a religion on par with theistic religions.[36]
 
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Shouldn’t be hard to tell but my major concern is that Dems have gone all in on the mail and that Trump plans to say forgetaboutit


I mean he’s literally saying it out loud. He’s done so from the beginning.

The thing is, they've always counted votes after election night. This entire premise that election night is IT is insanity. I don't even think the first states to certify their votes do so until the end of next week, with others taking much longer. Counting has absolutely gone on beyond election day, for God's sake it's not CNN/Fox/NBC, etc who certify votes.

The court can interfere insofar as placing limits on how long to count, what ballots can be counted (based on various technicalities) and so on. And even that is borderline unconstitutional but the notion that even THIS SCOTUS would come out and put some sort of arbitrary deadline at midnight EST on the 4th is outright insanity. They could possibly interfere in some limited fashion concerning recounts or invalidating some ballots, etc but to flat out stop dozens of states from counting is not a thing.
 
Yep I discovered Kennedy on FBN last year while flipping channels, was pretty surprised to see that's where she ended up.
But I thoroughly enjoyed how she handled Rude-Y last night. She may be a Republican, but she knows a creep and a liar when she smells one.
 
The thing is, they've always counted votes after election night. This entire premise that election night is IT is insanity. I don't even think the first states to certify their votes do so until the end of next week, with others taking much longer. Counting has absolutely gone on beyond election day, for God's sake it's not CNN/Fox/NBC, etc who certify votes.



The court can interfere insofar as placing limits on how long to count, what ballots can be counted (based on various technicalities) and so on. And even that is borderline unconstitutional but the notion that even THIS SCOTUS would come out and put some sort of arbitrary deadline at midnight EST on the 4th is outright insanity. They could possibly interfere in some limited fashion concerning recounts or invalidating some ballots, etc but to flat out stop dozens of states from counting is not a thing.



Agree. It’s never been the networks who certify votes. They’re going off projections but most of the voting doesn’t actually get completed for weeks.

Doesn’t it take CA two weeks to get every vote counted?

I really hope the media doesn’t start playing this up like it’s some new issue. Tomorrow there’ll be a NYT cover story about “Shouldn’t all votes be counted on Election Day???????”

Trump will (and already is) complaining about it and making it a issue

Next will be the GOP to claim this is some New Democratic hoax / deep state plot to get rid of Trump

State GOP may very well claim its rigged and force issues to the courts and the House Of Reps

The media needs to be calling this bullshit out right now.
 
I can absolutely see them trying to steal the election if we are down to a single state like PA or WI or FL. But I just don't believe they would bother if Trump is outta there by a landslide. The GOP will be cannibalizing itself about 5 seconds after Trump loses. Those "brave" souls like Sasse, Romney will abandon him immediately and will have exactly zero vested interest in continuing to support his insanity. Then you have a slew of R Senators up for re-election in 2022, and among them Murkowski, Rubio, etc who will be looking out for their own hide. It's in almost no Republican's best interest, to they extent they want to stay in DC, to take up a sure loser of a cause. I also don't see Roberts or Alito attaching themselves to this bad of a stench, and Roberts may be able to force the hand of Coney Barrett at this stage as well.

So I get Headache's concern that the Dems are getting cute/cocky with states that are real toss ups or worse, but in a way you kind of have to. The more states that are in your column, no matter how narrowly, the lesser a chance that litigation resolves this.

Would the American public stand by and watch Trump take the election by refusing to count votes in a dozen states that would reveal him to be a loser, by a landslide? I mean, that really beggars belief.
 
Agree. It’s never been the networks who certify votes. They’re going off projections but most of the voting doesn’t actually get completed for weeks.

Doesn’t it take CA two weeks to get every vote counted?

I really hope the media doesn’t start playing this up like it’s some new issue. Tomorrow there’ll be a NYT cover story about “Shouldn’t all votes be counted on Election Day???????”

Trump will (and already is) complaining about it and making it a issue

Next will be the GOP to claim this is some New Democratic hoax / deep state plot to get rid of Trump

State GOP may very well claim its rigged and force issues to the courts and the House Of Reps

The media needs to be calling this bullshit out right now.

Most states have FIVE WEEKS!! to certify the ballots. Remember California numbers coming in a month after election day?

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1321521134676922370
 
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Says a lot about our country and the nervousness of Dems, that the consensus is - Trump has Ohio wrapped up, and he's up 1.5 in the polls. But every other story you see is about whether Biden will lose PA, when he's up 6 in the polls. :|
 
Says a lot about our country and the nervousness of Dems, that the consensus is - Trump has Ohio wrapped up, and he's up 1.5 in the polls. But every other story you see is about whether Biden will lose PA, when he's up 6 in the polls. :|

In 2016, I went back to work after a year-long maternity leave the day before the election. My GC, an American, joked with me that it was good timing because if Donald Trump wins the next day the world will self-combust and I’ll only have had to come to the office for 2 days. We laughed about it.

:|

Those scars are deep.
 
Again I really think you should stop counting margins less than a week before the election and start focusing on how many people say they are going to vote for a specific candidate.
 
Poor Tucker Carlson. And how are we supposed to vote by Mail if Tucker’s super secret Hunter Biden evidence gets stolen!!!
 
Poor Tucker Carlson. And how are we supposed to vote by Mail if Tucker’s super secret Hunter Biden evidence gets stolen!!!

No worries, it was FedEx or UPS who stole his “evidence” (of which no copies exist?).
 
Poor Tucker Carlson. And how are we supposed to vote by Mail if Tucker’s super secret Hunter Biden evidence gets stolen!!!

I went to look to see what this is about, and oh, my god, this is hilarious. What a sad little tool.

Thanks for the further info on Kennedy, by the way, people. I do kinda remember her from back in the day, I've heard about her a bit, but I didn't know a lot about her aside from the fact she worked for MTV.
 
You’re missing the point. A poll that says 48-43-2-7 isn’t a 5 point gap. There’s no use in thinking he’s up 5 in that poll. Waste of time.

ah, sorry, I thought you were talking about my OH and PA post. Definitely a waste of time on that one. Was hoping for something a bit more substantive from a pretty respected WI polling house.
 
So in between work, i'll post a little polling info.

National polls today - and there were a LOT. Averaged out at Biden +9.9

Highest poll - +19
Lowest poll - Trump +1 (You're a treasure Rasmussen)

Only two higher quality live caller polls have been done since the last debate.
Those were Biden +11 and Biden +12

This falls in line with what Nate Silver and Wasserman were saying the district polls they are seeing might reflect nationally.

Anyway. Biden as stable as ever.

Some state stuff later on.
 
Anyone else watch Miles Taylor on Chris Cuomo last night? He is Anonymous.

Of course he's just a "disgruntled former staffer", just like everyone else who tells the truth about Trump. Trump says he should be prosecuted, lol.

Sadly nothing he said about Trump on Chris Cuomo's show was surprising to me.
 
Just saw a Trump ad on tv. The audio is Biden saying he is going to raise taxes, then it just cuts off. Obviously editing out on people making over 400 K a year.

This is an official Trump ad, not a pac ad. They are desperate.
 
New Marist poll of FL puts Biden +4. Nice to see Biden getting slightly better numbers here before election day. But we all know it gonna be really tight. I would be surprised if the margin is greater than 2-2.5 in the end.

Looking at early voting numbers


Democrats 2,991,015 - 40.5
Republicans 2,784,101 - 37.7

No Party Affiliation 1,509,179 - 20.4
TOTAL 7,380,071

My best guess on where the vote for each candidate stands right now, taking crossover votes ( R to D, D to R) and independent votes by what polls are saying they are doing (being conservative here on this numberr)

Biden - 53.5
Trump - 45

Now we just have to see how election day plays out.

It's going to be brutal to see Biden up by like 10 or 15 points with mail-ins counted first, and then watch as Trump slowly creeps up, just hoping it holds. :|
 
General polling question. Obviously we know pollsters have adjusted based on how 2016 turned out. I'm wondering if perhaps they have OVER adjusted, thereby inflating how Trump is doing in certain areas. Thoughts?

Combined with unprecedented turnout thus far, this could be a bloodbath if the case.
 
I definitely think that is possible. One possibility is that polls aren't accurately depicting how Independents will vote and therefore any conclusions based on the # of ballots received so far from independents/non-affiliated could be materially off. The other is that I haven't seen anything concrete regarding how many of the early votes are comprised of individuals who were going to vote on Nov 3 but for COVID or other reasons vs how many of them are voters who typically do not vote.

Tuesday is going to be wild either way.
 
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