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Old 11-02-2020, 10:04 PM   #681
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Originally Posted by mikal View Post
Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.

CNN, because I think John King does a decent job and I like their map graphics. It’s enough to make me put up with Wolf Blitzer.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:07 PM   #682
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If Florida goes blue, I'm watching Fox News for sure.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:15 PM   #683
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https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...041906176?s=09
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:23 PM   #684
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Originally Posted by LemonMelon View Post
If Florida goes blue, I'm watching Fox News for sure.


https://youtu.be/eQLV7nqD3CA
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:39 PM   #685
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
The Arizona polls today are all making me nauseous.

But I think that Mark Kelly has it in the bag and will drag Biden over the line in the end.
Don't worry about AZ.
Maricopa Co. alone has 1.7 million early votes. That's 70% of the entire STATE total in 2016. Pima Co. is at about 110% of their 2016 total.
A voter tsunami like this isn't because Republicans are so fired up. Trump's base is fired up, but he has a ceiling and it has been hit. These numbers come from the energy of change and first time and sporadic voters coming out because they are fed up.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:41 PM   #686
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I roll with Rachel
absolutely. I will only switch over to Fox every time a state is called for Biden.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:42 PM   #687
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Could you imagine Fox News ever looking like this now? Outwardly seeding doubt that Trump would *lose* a state?!?
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:20 PM   #688
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I'm only poll nerd with not much data crunching experience.

But I took a look at Sumter Co. FL early voting totals. Wasserman says that Trump needs to get 66-67 in Sumter to be on track to win the state. Because it is so deep red, it would foreshadow shifts around the state in the more rural deep red areas. He won it by 69% in 2016.

I know it's the early vote, BUT they are almost maxed out on the total number of registered voters already, so it's close to what the end number will be.

Right now, if I take the latest crosstab data from Nate Silver on FL, which seem pretty conservative, it shows Reps with a party ID 89-9 and Dems are at 91-7, giving Dems a +2 crossover vote. They also have Ind. at 5-6 points to Biden.

So i plugged those numbers into the current vote totals and Trump is at 63.5 and Biden at 36.5. That is a really significant shift and puts Trump far short of what he needs in the reddest parts of the state.

A good sign I hope....
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:27 PM   #689
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Pete seems to genuinely enjoy toying with Fox News hosts

https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/st...219380225?s=19

https://twitter.com/kennyedit/status...662138885?s=19
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:30 PM   #690
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So right now, Biden has a better chance at winning MT, than Trump has at winning PA.

We got this people.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilve...68474249826304

Charlie Cook, who is pretty cautious not one for wild predictions, says that a landslide is a probable outcome.
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:42 PM   #691
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I'm just blown away that we're going to hit 100m votes going into election day. I thought we would land somewhere around the 50-60% mark of 2016's total, but we're going to be at 72% or thereabouts. That's 39% of the voting age population before election day; we hit 55.5% in 2016.
That's genuinely fantastic . It's kind of crazy that it's taking something like this to bring out the voters in that high of numbers, but hey, I'll take any good news I can get.

Quote:
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Wow, just saw early vote is 53 Female, 44 Male. That is very good news for Biden if that gap continues. I guess the men are too busy running buses off the highway in their tiny penis trucks.
Also good news (and LOL at "tiny penis trucks").

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikal View Post
Random poll of Interference:

What network will you all be watching tomorrow night? I feel like MSNBC would be like listening to your team’s radio announcers. Lol.
I'm watching Stephen Colbert's election special. At least that will have some comedy with it. Otherwise, I'm probably just going to read my updates online.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gump View Post
MSNBC and the internet for sure.

Here’s something to pass the time:

Attachment 12679

I got: Illegal aliens will erase stay at home moms.
I got, "Antifas eradicate our saviour Donald J. Trump".

Well, then .
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:20 AM   #692
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it's finally election day.

don't fuck this up, america.
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:34 AM   #693
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US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

Extremely anecdotally, but reality seems to be dawning on the few Trumpers in my FB feed.

(ie, “no matter who is president, Jesus is King”)
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:53 AM   #694
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Extremely anecdotally, but reality seems to be dawning on the few Trumpers in my FB feed.

(ie, “no matter who is president, Jesus is King”)


You have weird friends
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:55 AM   #695
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US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
You have weird friends


In laws.

It’s good to have exposure to many different walks of life, weird or otherwise.
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Old 11-03-2020, 12:58 AM   #696
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it's finally election day.

don't fuck this up, america.


I voted 2 weeks ago, but I live in Washington so it’s not really up to me.

Don’t fuck this up Pennsylvania, Arizona, etc.
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Old 11-03-2020, 01:02 AM   #697
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I voted 2 weeks ago, but I live in Washington so it’s not really up to me.

Don’t fuck this up Pennsylvania, Arizona, etc.


Same, but one week ago.
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Old 11-03-2020, 01:05 AM   #698
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Extremely anecdotally, but reality seems to be dawning on the few Trumpers in my FB feed.

(ie, “no matter who is president, Jesus is King”)


If Jesus actually showed up, Trump would tweet that he draws bigger crowds at his rallies and that he prefers saviors that can actually save themselves.
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Old 11-03-2020, 01:10 AM   #699
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If Jesus actually showed up, Trump would tweet that he draws bigger crowds at his rallies and that he prefers saviors that can actually save themselves.


Or he would invite him to his rally, bring him on stage, and say “this guy! My prophet friend. One time, he helped me make the greatest economy ever. We’d talk all the time, every Sunday, believe me. You know, before me, this guy was going out of style. The democrats want to crucify him all over again! But I made him great again!”
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Old 11-03-2020, 01:13 AM   #700
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It's election day.

From Nate Silver

Our final turnout estimate landed at 158 million, with an 80th percentile range between 147 and 168 million. Compares to 137 million in 2016.

Biden ends at 89.2%. So "favored" rather than "clearly favored".

10% chances happen, but it's a certainly a very solid position for Biden. More to come.

From G. Elliott Morris

I think it’s actually fairly likely that we’ll be able to call the whole election by 9 or 10 PM, based on the shift we see in full results from rural counties and in FL, NC, and VA, which count election day and early/absentee ballots very quickly. Could all be over by midnight.

Chance of winning the electoral college - 96 to 4
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