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Old 10-26-2020, 02:06 PM   #41
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I keep forgetting about IA. I'm hopeful there, but Trumps +10 win there is a big mountain to climb. But they are much more open to vote across party lines than many other states.
Ohio, I've pretty much given up on this time. I'd say Trump by 2 or so.


Obama won IA bigly, twice. That gives me hope.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:08 PM   #42
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This HAS to be good for Biden though, yes? The whole reason HRC lost was undecided broke for Trump and a lot of folks stayed home. Higher turnouts are always better for D’s, yes?

They don’t seem to be staying home.
I say yes. That was the problem in 2016. Low turnout overall, and especially Clinton in key areas. Beto has said that TX isn't so much a red state, as a non-voting state. Well, they now are the biggest voting state in the country, 1 million more than California who has 10 million more people,

Polls do take turnout into their calculations. But very high turnout could make the polls wonky. Especially state polling.

The biggest chance that TX, FL, and NC to go to Biden. Unprecedented turnout.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:28 PM   #43
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It's fair point, but Texas is really a case of overwhelming demographic death for the Republicans. .. a growing Hispanic population!
That's why its Trump territory...
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:32 PM   #44
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This Texas poll is a bit of a bummer - I was expecting a Biden -1 or -2. Worth noting that NYT/Siena also underestimated Latino support for Beto in 2018, and that seems to be the main reason behind their result. Still, a long shot (and no, it has nothing to do with oil, most of the interviews were carried out before the debate).

A lot hinges on PA, of course, but as a worst-case fall back option, Biden can theoretically win with AZ/MI/WI even if he loses FL/PA. He would need to win NE-2, but seems to be a clear favorite there. A 270-268 win, but a win still (Republicans would immediately paralyze a Biden administration due to a "lack of mandate", never mind a large-scale popular vote win).

AZ is a tricky one; it doesn't correlate much with PA but could with FL, so who knows. If NYT/Siena is right in how Latino support for Biden is weaker than for Hilary, AZ could be a tough one to crack, especially if Trump is really +4 in TX.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:40 PM   #45
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Every single "success" this cretin has ever had is via birth or marriage. What a condescending privileged creep.


Jared Kushner Says African-Americans Must ‘Want to Be Successful’


By Jennifer Jacobs and Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou
October 26, 2020, 10:04 AM EDT

President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner said Black people must “want to be successful” in order for the administration’s policies to help them.

“One thing we’ve seen in a lot of the Black community, which is mostly Democrat, is that President Trump’s policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they’re complaining about,” Kushner said Monday on “Fox & Friends.” “But he can’t want them to be successful more than they want to be successful.”


Kushner’s remarks drew criticism on Twitter, where Democrats said he was implying that many Black people don’t want to be successful.

“Jared Kushner was born into wealth and he married into wealth. He’s never had to ‘want’ success, let alone earn it. All he’s had to do is be in the right place at the right time,” Representative Gerry Connolly, a Virginia Democrat, tweeted. “This is a breathtaking insult to the hardworking people who actually make this country great.”


Trump’s campaign believes he’s drawing more Black support for his re-election than in his 2016 run, thanks to policies including a law he signed reducing prison sentences for nonviolent offenders, increased spending for historically Black colleges and universities and new tax benefits for investors in low-income communities.

White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany issued a statement saying “internet trolls” had taken Kushner’s remarks out of context.

“From criminal justice reform and record HBCU funding to record low Black unemployment and record high income increases, there is simply no disputing that President Trump accomplished what Democrats merely talked about,” McEnany said.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:44 PM   #46
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Looking at the electoral map, I'm a bit more cautious in my predictions/projections.

I'm going to go ahead and assume that Texas and Georgia will go for Trump.

For the sake of my own sanity, I'm also going to assume Florida goes for Trump.

I will also assume that Ohio and Iowa go for Trump.

Perhaps I shouldn't count eggs yet, but I will assume that Biden has Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania looks a little closer in the polls, so I'm not taking it for granted.

So, with those assumptions, the remaining undecideds would be Pennsylvania(20 EC votes), North Carolina(15 EC votes), Arizona(11 EC votes), Nevada(6 EC vote, and I can't take it for granted because of the lack of polling), and ME-2(1 EC vote).

If all of that is true, that puts the EC score at 253-232 in favor of Biden.

Even with this more conservative projection, Pennsylvania alone would put Biden over the top. So could North Carolina+Nevada. So would Arizona+Nevada. Meanwhile, Trump would need three out of Pennsylvania/North Carolina/Arizona/Nevada to get over the hump.

But this all comes with two big caveats:

1. The Biden does in fact have Michigan and Wisconsin wrapped up. After 2016, thinking that we have those states in the bag gives me PTSD.

2. Biden winning by a narrow margin with 270-274 EC Votes would make it much more like likely that Trump would try some shenanigans to win. Which is why if Biden won all four of the states in question and finished with 305, we could all sleep much easier.

In any case, if Biden pulls out Florida or Ohio or Iowa or Georgia or Texas, it's just gravy.

On a personal note, as native and resident of southern Ohio, it makes me sad that we seem to have forsaken our status as a swing state and become something more akin to a red state. I really don't understand it. We went for Obama twice and now this? Think of this - if Biden wins the election but loses Ohio, he would be the first president since JFK in 1960 to win the presidency without Ohio.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:47 PM   #47
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Every single "success" this cretin has ever had is via birth or marriage. What a condescending privileged creep.


Jared Kushner Says African-Americans Must ‘Want to Be Successful’
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/sta...23973651472387
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:47 PM   #48
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Trump gaining in polls in 9 of 12 swing states per USA Today

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ls/6037687002/
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:00 PM   #49
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POLITICS
By Hayley Miller
10/26/2020 01:45 PM ET


Jared Kushner, a top aide and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, appeared to mock Black Lives Matter activists on Monday, claiming many people who spoke out against George Floyd’s death in May were simply “virtue signaling.”

“Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade asked Kushner about working with rapper Ice Cube ― who has faced backlash for spreading baseless QAnon conspiracy theories on social media ― on the Trump administration’s “Platinum Plan” for Black communities.


“So, look, there’s been a lot of discussion about the issues that were needed in the Black community for the last year, but particularly it intensified after the George Floyd situation,” Kushner said. “And, you know, you saw a lot of people that were just virtue signaling.

“They’d go on Instagram and cry or, you know, they’d put a slogan on their jersey or write something on a basketball court,” he continued, appearing to refer to athletes such as those in the NBA and WNBA who made Black Lives Matter activism a centerpiece of their seasons.

Kushner claimed such activism was “doing more to polarize the country than it was to bring people forward.”
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:31 PM   #50
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Trump gaining in polls in 9 of 12 swing states per USA Today

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ls/6037687002/
This is where polling averages can be sort of dangerous when just put out with a headline like this, to a public that doesn't really understand how the averages work.
Trumps (small) upward trend across some of the swing states could be from better recent polling, or from older weak polls dropping out of the average.

Also, the fact that IA, GA, TX and OH are even being mentioned shows the strong position that Biden is in. These weren't even states to consider battlegrounds a couple months ago, IA and OH, only about one month ago.

Also, as we've discussed a lot around here, there are lots of partisan polls out recently. Yes this swings both ways, but cherry picking a couple of those out in this article doesn't really reflect reality.

That said, it could be helpful for Dems to see this and get their asses to the polls, or it could give unmotivated Reps, motivation if they think Trump is coming back.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:33 PM   #51
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HuffPost

POLITICS
By Hayley Miller
10/26/2020 01:45 PM ET


Jared Kushner, a top aide and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, appeared to mock Black Lives Matter activists on Monday, claiming many people who spoke out against George Floyd’s death in May were simply “virtue signaling.”

“Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade asked Kushner about working with rapper Ice Cube ― who has faced backlash for spreading baseless QAnon conspiracy theories on social media ― on the Trump administration’s “Platinum Plan” for Black communities.


“So, look, there’s been a lot of discussion about the issues that were needed in the Black community for the last year, but particularly it intensified after the George Floyd situation,” Kushner said. “And, you know, you saw a lot of people that were just virtue signaling.

“They’d go on Instagram and cry or, you know, they’d put a slogan on their jersey or write something on a basketball court,” he continued, appearing to refer to athletes such as those in the NBA and WNBA who made Black Lives Matter activism a centerpiece of their seasons.

Kushner claimed such activism was “doing more to polarize the country than it was to bring people forward.”
He's a peach.
Completely in touch with the common person.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:34 PM   #52
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That said, it could be helpful for Dems to see this and get their asses to the polls, or it could give unmotivated Reps, motivation if they think Trump is coming back.
Although the polls give me ongoing heartburn, I don't mind them for this reason. The entire Trump supporter cohort is convinced he is going to win by a landslide and that Joe has a small lead like Hillary did, but it's because of shy Trump voters that will overwhelm voting polls next Tuesday. If they are happy believing this, great.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:35 PM   #53
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So I looked at the polling for GA and TX over the last week and a half. (tighter time frame than the overall avg.)

Pretty much TX - Trump +3 and GA - tied.

Could be reality, as I think about the universal shift thing again. A 5 point universal shift for Biden in the south would mean TX - Trump +4, GA - tied, NC - Biden +2, and FL (if we want to call them a southern state) Biden +3.7

One thing that gives me some solace in TX, is that UT Tyler polls have been very accurate in TX polling in the past. They have Biden +3.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:36 PM   #54
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I don’t understand why Iowa or Ohio are shocking for being in play. They and Florida should be viewed properly as swing states.

Texas and Georgia on the other hand... and primarily Georgia, because I think there’s no hope for Texas.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:37 PM   #55
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He's a peach.
Completely in touch with the common person.
He really ought to have some humility, especially considering his father's criminal record. Jared might also have plenty of skeletons in his closet regarding the properties he owns, I've read about that. And who knows what else.

Who is more despicable, Don Jr or Jared? Discuss
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:40 PM   #56
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I gave up on OH a while ago. I don't even consider it to be a swing state. Could it get dragged over the line in a tsunami election? Sure. But I put the odds of that happening well below FL and GA at this point.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:45 PM   #57
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Who is more despicable, Don Jr or Jared? Discuss
Need to break it out into categories, but to me, Jared by a country mile.

Creepier? JARED by a landslide (is he even human?)
Higher-than-a-kite: DON JR.
Stupider? DON JR. (this handicaps the remainder of the categories for him)
More nakedly ambitious? JARED
More evil? JARED (Don Jr. too stupid to formulate the worst policies of the administration)
More amoral? JARED
Fuller of himself? JARED (Don Jr. is the classical case of low self-esteem/daddy issues)
More out of touch? JARED (Lots of stories about DJT being raised by Ivana and her Czech father and DJT living somewhat of a normal life with them, too bad he went all in on Trump)
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:04 PM   #58
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Just what we all needed in these awful times-Cher singing about Joe Biden

https://youtu.be/wYzrGxtBfzA
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:14 PM   #59
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Biden back up to 9.4 nationally.

Today
+12
+9
+7
+12.5
+7
+14
Avg. +10.25

Rasmussen - Trump +1
Add in this one - today's average is 8.6

Also, just so you are aware - Insider Advantage is another Rasmussen/Trafalgar type pollster. In case you popped over to 538 and saw a Trump +3 in PA.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:15 PM   #60
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Obama won IA bigly, twice. That gives me hope.
My mom said she's been seeing a lot of Biden signs around here lately. Course, while my town is part of the most conservative district here, I think it's also more liberal compared to many of the other towns here, so...

And there was an article I read the other day talking about how Iowans are fed up with the GOP's mishandling of the virus. Governor Reynolds isn't on the ballot, but her approval ratings aren't great, and they quoted a Republican in the article who refused to vote for Ernst after she said she didn't believe the numbers on the virus.

So. Yeah. Who knows. It still stuns me how we went from supporting Obama twice (and remember we were also one of the earliest states to legalize same-sex marriage) to taking a hard swerve towards Trump, but yeah, I'm hoping like hell we don't make that mistake twice.

I'm not even going to try and make any predictions regarding polls because, well, first off, I suck at math, and second, I'm afraid that any predictions I make would jinx everything . I'll just happily take any promising news regarding the polls and hope and pray for the best, pretty much.

This is going to be a crazy stressful week, to be sure.
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