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Old 11-01-2020, 10:56 PM   #561
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I don't think all your info is correct. It is really hard to find solid consistent info on this subject. But from the best of my knowledge,

PA can not start counting until polls close. Also, PA has said they won't count any mail ins until Wednesday.
GA from what I've heard is counting mail ins now.
WI, MI can NOT start counting until 7am on Nov. 3rd
OH can start counting early, but there seems to be no set time frame.

It would be great if the Gov's of these states had any say, but they don't. It's up to the state legislatures, and I believe all of these are Repub controlled.

From what I have seen though, OH has been surprising in how by the book they are playing things, and MI Gov and Sec of State are top notch and have been laser focused on the balloting.

Good news is that we do have a handful of swing states that will tell us a lot.

If OH goes Biden, it's all over. If he is loses, but only by a point or two, it should point to a strong night for Biden.

If NC goes Biden, it's all over. If Biden loses NC, we may be in for a long and painful process

Unless GA goes Blue, but if not, same long and painful process

Unless TX goes Blue, then the heavens open the light of glory showers upon us.

Same with FL

If AZ goes blue later in the evening, it's pretty much locked up, but if Biden has a terrible night everywhere else, and only pulls a 270 win, then you can bet we will be headed for weeks of battles in several states.
I got my info from Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/When_states_...20#cite_note-3

It says PA, along with MI and WI, can start counting before the polls close. Either way, if PA is choosing to not even start counting the mail-ins until Wednesday, that is annoying to me. Doesn't that play right into Trump's hands? If PA is only counting day-of votes on Tuesday, then it might look like he's ahead there at the end of the night.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:04 PM   #562
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Not sure if this is exactly what you are looking for, but 538 had a pretty comprehensive guide for how votes are being counted/timing:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:13 PM   #563
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That’s a great guide. Means that the majority of polls will close at lunchtime Wednesday here in Aus, not expecting to get any work done that afternoon.

Flashbacks of standing in the office break room watching CNN and confidently stating that Trump will never win just before close of polls. Then came the slow, sick realisation that he was ahead in MI, WI and PA and Clinton wasn’t going to close the gap.

By the time I got home at dinner and the race was called it was like being in a bad dream. Can’t imagine how you all must have psychically felt.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:42 PM   #564
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Not an unlikely map.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistric...14178631110666
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:45 PM   #565
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Originally Posted by gump View Post
Not sure if this is exactly what you are looking for, but 538 had a pretty comprehensive guide for how votes are being counted/timing:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/

Thx 4 the anxiety
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:49 PM   #566
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My “head” would make a map that would look pretty close to this, maybe without OH and TX. Everything on paper tells us it should not be close when it’s all over.

But, man. My gut would not. That 2016 trauma. Still processing.

I’ve been doomscrolling for a week now. It isn’t healthy for politics to be so high stakes like this.

I think the difference is that I never thought Romeny or McCain or even W would actively come after us like Trump will do. He will seek to punish those who did not vote for him, and his voters will love it.
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Old 11-02-2020, 12:22 AM   #567
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I do not think this is going to be a blowout but I do think Biden can win because like 2016, the map is pretty hard for a guy like Trump to win.
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Old 11-02-2020, 01:05 AM   #568
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Trump campaign is like an ongoing real life VEEP episode. One more rally with thousands of people stranded in the cold.
And not to be outdone by their already baffling choice of music at their events (Macho Man, YMCA, You Can’t Always Get What You Want, Fortunate Son, etc) Tonight at a Georgia rally, you could hear REM’s Everybody Hurts, blaring over the speakers.
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Old 11-02-2020, 05:44 AM   #569
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Biden should be the winner.

But it will have to be by a blowout so large that the cheating will not matter. Because they're going to cheat and cheat hard. If it's remotely close, Trump will win because they'll steal it away and there's nobody left in the federal government to do anything about it.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:11 AM   #570
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https://twitter.com/JulieNBCNews/sta...623313920?s=19

Don't let yourself gooooooooooooo
Cause everyyyyybody cries
Everyyyyybody huuuuuuurts... sometimes
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Old 11-02-2020, 07:50 AM   #571
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Old 11-02-2020, 07:53 AM   #572
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Have no explanation for this, just throwing it in for some humor

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Old 11-02-2020, 08:08 AM   #573
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Opa-Locka, Florida(CNN)President Donald Trump suggested to a Florida crowd he may fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after the election, escalating his feud with the nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and providing a window into a potential post-November 3 administration purge.

Speaking after midnight following a full day of campaigning, the President was complaining about news media coverage of Covid-19 when the crowd broke out into a "Fire Fauci" chant.

"Don't tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election," Trump said to cheers. "I appreciate the advice."
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:20 AM   #574
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Here's where I am today:

Reasons to be optimistic:
- Biden is polling much better than Hillary ever did, especially at the end;
- Very few undecided voters left;
- No significant third party candidates that will shave valuable votes off his tally;
- While Biden lacks a great plan B if his plan A (PA) becomes a problem, he has leads in "plan B" states that are not as correlated to each other (AZ, NC, to a lesser extent GA and FL). This is a bit more robust than relying on PA/MI/WI like Hilary did, as they were more prone to common polling errors.
- Pollsters have by and large addressed the 2016 issues regarding educational weighting of white voters, and the 2018 polls were quite accurate in that regard.

Reasons to be pessimistic:
- PA lead is not large enough, and could still be prone to a mid-sized polling error;
- If PA goes for Trump, it's closer to a 50-50 race given the smaller leads in other swing states.
- Unprecedented amount of early voting brings extra uncertainty (we are not sure if polling models handled this particularly well), though this could benefit Biden as well as Trump. But Biden would prefer less uncertainty given his leads.
- Massive disenfranchisement in key states. We saw what happened to GA in 2018. PA remains a huge question mark. And given Republican control of the federal judiciary, there is likely to be a thumb on the scale for Trump (though I can't help wondering if the Republican establishment wouldn't be happy to see him go now that they got their courts - but given the Senatorial races in place it's unlikely).

So all in all, better off than we were 4 years ago, but I would be much more comfortable if the lead in PA was closer to MI or WI.

To keep things in perspective, a Biden landslide in which he wins 400+ electoral votes is probably a bit more likely than a Trump EC win.
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:32 AM   #575
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https://twitter.com/Rob_Flaherty/sta...352639492?s=19
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Old 11-02-2020, 08:37 AM   #576
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Tonight at a Georgia rally, you could hear REM’s Everybody Hurts, blaring over the speakers.
Appropriate since the video is cars stopped on aa freeway.

Just need to photoshop Trump flags on all the cars to update the video for 2020


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Old 11-02-2020, 08:47 AM   #577
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Gee now that truck sure looks familiar

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/artic...a-b0416ee3cc91
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:43 AM   #578
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Washington(CNN)Federal authorities are expected to put back into place a "non-scalable" fence around the entire perimeter of the White House on Monday as law enforcement and other agencies prepare for possible protests surrounding the election, a source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to CNN.

The fence, the same type that was put up during protests this summer, will encompass the Ellipse and Lafayette Square. It will go down 15th Street to Constitution Avenue and then over to 17th Street. The fence will then run up to H Street and across by Lafayette, and then come down 15th Street, the source said.

NBC News was first to report the new fencing. The Secret Service did not respond to a request for comment.
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Old 11-02-2020, 09:56 AM   #579
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finally, scientific proof that Trump supporters are a bunch of Dicks

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Old 11-02-2020, 09:58 AM   #580
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The Karens surprised me, frankly.
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