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Old 11-01-2020, 10:12 AM   #501
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He would look good in the shorts

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Old 11-01-2020, 10:47 AM   #502
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Way too early in the morning to bring out that photo.
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Old 11-01-2020, 10:52 AM   #503
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https://twitter.com/nhannahjones/sta...132250113?s=21

Asking so much sacrifice out of the community that already has so little in comparison to others.

I hope whatever BS they endure is light Tuesday.
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Old 11-01-2020, 10:52 AM   #504
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Old 11-01-2020, 10:58 AM   #505
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
Blurbbbbbb stop averaging polls 4 the luv of gawd.

Pls stop world. It’s a bad habit.
I think it's important to look back at past elections to kind of give us some perspective.

2012 is particularly interesting.
Obama on up .5 nationally, but wins WI by 7, MI by 9 and PA by 3. Those state numbers look pretty damn familiar...
So polls were off by more in 2012 than in 2016, just the other way.

Sorry, numbers are about the only thing that keeps me calm in these anxious days.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:02 AM   #506
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Trump actively praised violence and voter suppression on his Twitter this morning, so that's something.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:17 AM   #507
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He would look good in the shorts

Attachment 12673
I literally just finished eating and popped back on here to see this.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:21 AM   #508
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https://youtu.be/zk2PtczRFRw

Form's not bad, actually.
"You get paper towels, and you get paper towels, and you get paper towels....."



"...EVERYBODY GETS PAPER TOWELS!!!!"

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Old 11-01-2020, 11:26 AM   #509
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https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/1322695902360969216

Cause you know, Lady G always follows this advice.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:54 AM   #510
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US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

Ralston has called NV based on the early vote. It’s not a swing state. HRC won and Biden is expected to win. But what happened in NV showed no surprises, and the voting going pretty much as predicted. We will have to see if there’s some biblical surge of red on Election Day (still won’t change NV), but it sounds like predictions and polling are looking reasonably accurate.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...-voting-blog-3

And keeping in mind that NPAs will break life for Biden this year, and that a lot of people left Vegas because of COVID and job loss.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:21 PM   #511
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Get out the vote rally somewhere in NC, led by a Reverend, said to be peaceful. Police said they had to disperse, then proceeded to pepper spray them.

Kids and people in motorized wheelchairs were hit with pepper spray.

I really want to see an end to all this insanity.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:30 PM   #512
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Trump actively praised violence and voter suppression on his Twitter this morning, so that's something.
As everything else with him, same 💩different day.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:10 PM   #513
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On Monday, November 2, Joe Biden will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to discuss bringing Americans together to address the crises facing the country and winning the battle for the soul of the nation. Additional details to follow.

I think that the Biden team has played this very smart. 80% of the time in the blue wall states, In PA again all day today. Then they made important stops in GA, FL, NC and TX last week, have Obama in PA, FL, GA and NC, and Harris in GA.
The stop in IA this past week and closing out in OH say a lot about how they are feeling about the race, and maybe what their internal data is telling them.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:12 PM   #514
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Or they’re out of their minds
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:17 PM   #515
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couple of cool posts from G. Elliott Morris this morning

Per my average of polls going back to 1948, Trump has set a new record as the first incumbent president to poll below 47% of the national two-party vote every day since June 1st of the election cycle.

Responding to the news that Ralston has called NV for Biden, and how that would effect the probability model for AZ:

If we run our model with the condition that NV always has to be blue, then Biden's chance of winning AZ goes from 75 to 82 and his chance of winning the electoral college is pushed outside the uncertainty interval to 98%

The final point should give even the most nervous and skeptical some piece of mind. If Biden loses PA and ALL other battlegrounds, and just wins AZ, he would still hit 270. (note, I am not including MN, MI, and WI in battlegrounds at this point)
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:36 PM   #516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by womanfish View Post
I think it's important to look back at past elections to kind of give us some perspective.



2012 is particularly interesting.

Obama on up .5 nationally, but wins WI by 7, MI by 9 and PA by 3. Those state numbers look pretty damn familiar...

So polls were off by more in 2012 than in 2016, just the other way.



Sorry, numbers are about the only thing that keeps me calm in these anxious days.


The point is that nobody is “up” by their average. That’s the part that makes the values worthless.

The averages only tell you the direction in which polls were headed. They’re sort of worthless without a set of values across a time axis.
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Old 11-01-2020, 02:48 PM   #517
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https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/st...608449024?s=19
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Old 11-01-2020, 03:07 PM   #518
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https://twitter.com/chucklindell/sta...69722875502593
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Old 11-01-2020, 03:08 PM   #519
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We are now over 95 million votes
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Old 11-01-2020, 03:14 PM   #520
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Here we were thinking it may not be called on Tuesday when he’s going to call it at like 8:25 pm.
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