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Old 10-31-2020, 08:46 PM   #461
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Selzer Iowa poll +7 for Trump. Would be silly to discount this.


It’s presently unnerving me.
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Old 10-31-2020, 08:53 PM   #462
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Selzer Iowa poll +7 for Trump. Would be silly to discount this.


It’s silly to be discounting any poll, including Trafalgar.
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Old 10-31-2020, 09:13 PM   #463
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I slot that poll alongside the +17 Biden Wisconsin poll as "interesting but just one poll."
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Old 10-31-2020, 09:47 PM   #464
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US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
It’s silly to be discounting any poll, including Trafalgar.


Not that silly, considering that they are literally a GOP pollster and they gets us into pretty significant conflict of interest issues (contrary to, say, Rasmussen).
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Old 10-31-2020, 09:50 PM   #465
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I slot that poll alongside the +17 Biden Wisconsin poll as "interesting but just one poll."


Yeah, that’s the way I’m looking at it.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:00 PM   #466
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Not that silly, considering that they are literally a GOP pollster and they gets us into pretty significant conflict of interest issues (contrary to, say, Rasmussen).


But there does remain a valid argument about their polling style’s ability to capture honest answers.

Yes, they are literally a self-serving result style poll. I agree. But also they use tactics that are unusual and bring to light a question of accuracy versus precision. One might argue that they do more accurately capture honesty in trump voters.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:26 PM   #467
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Originally Posted by MrsSpringsteen View Post
Obama is on now, starting to rip into Orange super spreader. I just can't get enough of that.

He's jealous of covid's media coverage. A repeat, but a good one.

Did no one come to his birthday parties when he was a kid?
I was reading some highlights of his speech earlier. That birthday party line is gold .

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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
Selzer Iowa poll +7 for Trump. Would be silly to discount this.
Ughhhhh . Come on, Iowa. Be smart.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:30 PM   #468
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But there does remain a valid argument about their polling style’s ability to capture honest answers.

Yes, they are literally a self-serving result style poll. I agree. But also they use tactics that are unusual and bring to light a question of accuracy versus precision. One might argue that they do more accurately capture honesty in trump voters.


My main question regarding partisan polling is not so much that their methodology may be flawed - it generally is in some way - but rather the fact that we don’t know whether they are releasing all the polling they are doing as opposed to only polls with a good result for whomever they represent.

I also don’t really buy into the idea of the “shy Trump voter”, which seems to be what outfits like Trafalgar purportedly want. I think the explanation of Trump’s overperformance of his polls in 2016 are not that mysterious - education weighting and normal polling errors in what was a pretty tight race in the end. Also, Trump underperformed his polls in the GOP primaries, which often gets forgotten by those who believe that theory (not saying you do). To be more precise, I don’t think there is evidence that there are more “shy Trump voters” than there are “shy Biden voters”, so trying to “capture honesty” strikes me as a subjective gray zone that the pollster can use to justify results that ultimately serve their bottom line more than accuracy.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:37 PM   #469
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When a minority of voters gets power they will use that power to disenfranchise the voters.

It’s terrifying.
If Biden wins TX and the Republicans manage to keep control of the statehouse. They are going to fucking tear that state up with crazy laws and gerrymandering like we've never seen.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:45 PM   #470
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I slot that poll alongside the +17 Biden Wisconsin poll as "interesting but just one poll."
Exactly the right take. Very good pollsters stick to their methodology, and if they get a crazy result - (ie ABC's WI +17 or CNN national poll, Biden +16, Quinnipiac FL Biden +11) they release it. They don't jimmy the numbers to get closer in line with other pollsters.

This is the opposite of Trafalgar. They are consistently a far right outlier, and the brief look at the crosstabs of one of their polls (which they took down very quickly) was so bad that The Economist and 538 removed them, The person running Trafalgar is also a right wing racist, so that doesn't do much to help their standing. 538 has been in talks with Trafalgar to put them back in the mix.

So I don't think its wrong to dismiss the high quality pollsters that occasionally release a large outlier to the left. So I also don't think it's wrong to view the Selzer poll as an outlier. They get thrown in the average and we move on. Unless we think it's more reasonable that highly rated Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Emerson and NYT/Sienna are all off by 6 to 12 points?
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:02 AM   #471
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My main question regarding partisan polling is not so much that their methodology may be flawed - it generally is in some way - but rather the fact that we don’t know whether they are releasing all the polling they are doing as opposed to only polls with a good result for whomever they represent.

I also don’t really buy into the idea of the “shy Trump voter”, which seems to be what outfits like Trafalgar purportedly want. I think the explanation of Trump’s overperformance of his polls in 2016 are not that mysterious - education weighting and normal polling errors in what was a pretty tight race in the end. Also, Trump underperformed his polls in the GOP primaries, which often gets forgotten by those who believe that theory (not saying you do). To be more precise, I don’t think there is evidence that there are more “shy Trump voters” than there are “shy Biden voters”, so trying to “capture honesty” strikes me as a subjective gray zone that the pollster can use to justify results that ultimately serve their bottom line more than accuracy.


You won’t have to dig very deep into 2016 and more recently to see that I agree with you entirely about the polls and it being closer than anyone wanted to believe in 2016.

But I disagree about shy trump vs Biden voters. We are polarized at this point. Yes there might be shy former trump voters who are voting and not admitting they’ve changed allegiances, but in general it’s a very common (in my experience) thing to see where wealthier folks know what they’re doing is wrong but they do it anyways. So they don’t go out there saying they’re voting for trump but they in fact are, and I do 100% believe that they’re more likely to admit it in anonymous text or online poll than on the phone.

What I’m not following is what the value is for Trafalgar to get a self-serving but inaccurate poll. They as a polling firm have no incentive for that. Short of agent orange wanting an ego boost, the best place to be in polling if you’re not waaaay up IMO is in fact to be trailing ever so slightly behind in the polls. To me, that gives a voter more reason to show up. I think it was bad for clinton to be way up the whole time and then have a lead slip to small digits because it gave Trump voters momentum and probably caught Clinton non-voters off guard who thought it was in the bag.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:13 AM   #472
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Ok, sorry, one more point to make on the Selzer poll.

First, you would have to believe the Trump somehow gained 7 points over 1 month in Iowa (Since Selzer's last poll) while almost every other pollster was trending the other way.

Then, more telling is the Senate race. Selzer had Greenfield up by 3 points in last month's Selzer poll. And now, you guessed it, a 7 point shift, mirroring the 7 point shift in the national race.

This makes me thinks something more likely changed in the methodology or sample, than anything else. Or this was just truly an outlier at the outside edge of the Margin of Error.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:21 AM   #473
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Yeah, I was reading through some of the comments on these Twitter links regarding the Iowa poll and a lot of people seem to be suspicious of the polling here, and wondering if there is some type of data not being included or something wonky with the numbers or whatever. Here's a couple in case anyone wants to scroll through as well and see what's up:

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/statu...06792971841536

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/statu...89996395024384

Needless to say, I sincerely hope and pray that this is an outlier.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:23 AM   #474
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You won’t have to dig very deep into 2016 and more recently to see that I agree with you entirely about the polls and it being closer than anyone wanted to believe in 2016.

But I disagree about shy trump vs Biden voters. We are polarized at this point. Yes there might be shy former trump voters who are voting and not admitting they’ve changed allegiances, but in general it’s a very common (in my experience) thing to see where wealthier folks know what they’re doing is wrong but they do it anyways. So they don’t go out there saying they’re voting for trump but they in fact are, and I do 100% believe that they’re more likely to admit it in anonymous text or online poll than on the phone.

What I’m not following is what the value is for Trafalgar to get a self-serving but inaccurate poll. They as a polling firm have no incentive for that. Short of agent orange wanting an ego boost, the best place to be in polling if you’re not waaaay up IMO is in fact to be trailing ever so slightly behind in the polls. To me, that gives a voter more reason to show up. I think it was bad for clinton to be way up the whole time and then have a lead slip to small digits because it gave Trump voters momentum and probably caught Clinton non-voters off guard who thought it was in the bag.
Very good discussion here. This is my thought on the shy Trump voter. I do agree a little, that there are definitely more wealthy people in more liberal areas that probably don't tell their friends or neighbors that they are voting for Trump. But I also think this is the same for Biden voters this time around. I'm in a conservative area of a red state. I know who my blue dot neighbors are by talking with them, but I think many Biden voters are just plain scared of having some sort of trouble happen to their home or property if they put a Biden sign out.

The other reason I don't believe there is any significant number of shy Trump voters, is that you would see it reflected in the Senate, House and district level races, since Trump is not the candidate.
Those races would stay more red, even while Biden looked stronger. But we see Senate races in AZ, CO, NC, Maine, IA, GA etc all in big trouble for Repub candidates, And we see a LOT of blue swing all the way down the ticket.
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:45 AM   #475
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As for Trafalgar, I think Robert Calahy is an attention seeking knob. He's ALL over Fox News, stirring up Twitter battles, and branding himself as some sort of guru that is the only one that can see the shy Trump voter. So my guess is that since he got lucky and got MI/WI/PA much closer than other polling outfits, he is going for it again this time in hopes that something crazy happens, and he will be the messiah of polling. But more likely is that polls are fairly close to what we are seeing in the average, and he goes down as a someone that flubbed into a notoriety.

They also do polls FOR other firms and for PAC's. They are paid for these polls, and then the organizations and PAC's take these polls to GOP groups to get them to open their checkbooks. That is most likely the biggest driver and why they poll SO often.
(The reason they got kicked off of 538 is because they weren't disclosing when they were doing these type of polls for PAC's, since 538 marks these as partisan polls)
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Old 11-01-2020, 12:54 AM   #476
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Here's the problem with this batch of right-wing pollsters and RCP who showcases them.

https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/...73012206571521

So RCP now has AZ with Trump in the lead 3 days from election day. Giving the public the idea that Trump is raging back and has the wind at his back!!!

Well, guess what, out of the weekly average, 3 of the 6 polls were far right pollsters - Trafalgar, Rasmussen and Susquehanna.

538 has the AZ race at Biden +3.2 which has been almost unchanged for a month
The Economist has the race at Biden +2.9
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:05 AM   #477
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ABC/WAPO just dropped new polls

PA - Biden +7
FL - Trump +2

Looking more and more like NC may be the back breaker for Trump. It reports early in the night and has moved up about 1.5 points over the last month, and has enormous early turnout - 94% of their 2016 total vote.

If Biden wins NC, he can lose IA, OH, FL, GA, TX and yes even PA AND AZ, and still win 275 to 263
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:47 AM   #478
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It's always been about the three blue wall states (PA, MI, WI), with another swing state for cushion. If it's AZ, NC, GA, doesn't really matter, but the earlier it reports, the better.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:54 AM   #479
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Does anyone have a preferred results website to keep open on Tuesday? It’s not just Trump v Biden, it’s the House, Senate and 11 Governorships going on too. Ideally something clear and concise. Spoilt for choice on sites offering commentary but somewhere to check all current results at a glance would be good.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:53 AM   #480
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Does anyone have a preferred results website to keep open on Tuesday? It’s not just Trump v Biden, it’s the House, Senate and 11 Governorships going on too. Ideally something clear and concise. Spoilt for choice on sites offering commentary but somewhere to check all current results at a glance would be good.
I've liked the Guardian site in the past, and NYTimes.
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