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Old 10-30-2020, 03:53 PM   #381
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That’s a devastating poll.

I have never understood the concept of undecided voters who end up deciding the weekend prior to an election. It’s strange enough under normal circumstances but when one of your options is Donald Trump, who in the world doesn’t have a strongly positive or negative reaction immediately? Nevertheless, these people do exist. And they tend to be swept up in last minute momentum, so it’s far more likely than not that they will break in favour of Biden.

I have to admit I don’t really remember Election Day 2016 too clearly, except for when the calamity about to hit us became obvious. Anyone here recall what the exit polls were like? I distinctly remember the shocked reactions of the pundits on tv generally which leads me to believe that exit polls didn’t clearly point to Trump - and how could they, given the tiny split in 3 states that handed him the victory.


this is a bracing read:

https://www.vulture.com/article/elec...385.1530293108
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:09 PM   #382
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This is from Pinellas co., where I used to live, and that I said a few days ago is a bellwether county for FL.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...58972993269765
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:11 PM   #383
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LM with a nice "if you think Trump is getting PA might as well call all 50 states for him".

I'm glad I was not online that day!
And with the tipping point calculations being what they are, nothing has changed in four years!
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:15 PM   #384
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the president has no legal authority to order any state to stop counting ballots, except for maybe DC. the question there though is if R-controlled states would listen to him anyways and subsequently order the count to stop, because they most likely will be legally able to do that.
Legally that's absolutely true.

But I don't see him issuing a black-and-white edict from the Oval Office to stop counting. Though he is fully capable and stupid enough to suggest this, I think what's much more likely is him declaring, as soon as practicable on the night of the 3rd/4th that states with mail-in voting are posting highly suspicious numbers of ballots/unbelievable rates of return, that his poll watchers have observed countless irregularities and dozens of buses full of Mexicans and Guatemalans being driven to the polls from God knows where, vague stories of Republicans who were forced to submit provisional ballots and other such stories. And take that and proclaim that everyone has to step back until we can "figure out what the hell is going on" and get "to the bottom of what's going on" and that will absolutely be enough for his insane supporters to start heading to state capitols with pitchforks.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:16 PM   #385
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This is from Pinellas co., where I used to live, and that I said a few days ago is a bellwether county for FL.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...58972993269765
The most potentially harmful demographics for Trump in this election, ranked:

1. White suburban moms
2. Disenfranchised southern blacks
3. The elderly
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:18 PM   #386
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You know as I read that, I thought that it's worse reliving that day now, because we know what he is capable of. At least back in 2016 there was the off chance that he uses the Presidency to grift (totally happened) while serious, if amoral people run the country.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:27 PM   #387
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The most potentially harmful demographics for Trump in this election, ranked:

1. White suburban moms
2. Disenfranchised southern blacks
3. The elderly
Maybe seniors up to number 2 as FL and PA have the two highest elderly populations in the country.

And i'll add two more

4. 18-30 year old vote if the numbers we are seeing hold
5. New voters and non voters from 2016 (not a demographic really, but one that seems to be a substantial group)
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:34 PM   #388
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ngl, a small part of me would like to see him try this "i'm not leaving" gambit, because at 12:01pm on january 20th, president biden/pelosi will just order the secret service to remove the trespassers from the restricted area of the white house. how dope would it be to see them literally get thrown out of the white house at the end of all this.
A part of me as well, particularly as a NYC'r I'd SO love to see that!

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For you Americans or anyone living in the US at the moment, what do you feel would happen if he took the view that this must go through the courts, Dem cheating is out of control, they won't count past midnight, etc. Is there a tipping point scenario? I would imagine there would be a different response if they were challenging the votes in one state as opposed to claiming widespread cheating in half a dozen states?
If real shit is pulled - there is serious talk beginning of a general strike by the unions.

from The Guardian
Quote:

"Maloney, president of the Rochester-Genesee Valley Area Labor Federation, said his 100,000-member group adopted the resolution to get people discussing the idea – from local unions to the AFL-CIO, the nation’s main labor federation which represents more than 12.5 million people"
While they are focused on last minute GOTV, more of the unions across the country are now talking about a general strike as a "break glass in emergency" situation.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:37 PM   #389
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:40 PM   #390
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ngl, a small part of me would like to see him try this "i'm not leaving" gambit, because at 12:01pm on january 20th, president biden/pelosi will just order the secret service to remove the trespassers from the restricted area of the white house. how dope would it be to see them literally get thrown out of the white house at the end of all this.
I have been longing for a scenario like that for some time now. It'd be great if his time in office ended in the most humiliating way imaginable, the kind that gets played on a constant loop on TV and becomes a lasting image of the embarrassment that was his presidency.

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Wow, I feel such a loss of respect for a person I've always admired. His right of course, but I just don't get it.

Bobby Orr endorsed Donald Trump for president in a newspaper ad

October 30, 2020 | 12:57 PM

Bruins legend and Hockey Hall of Famer Bobby Orr says he’s supporting Donald Trump for president.

Orr, a Florida resident, made the endorsement in an ad in Friday’s edition of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper. A note at the bottom says “Paid for by Bobby Orr.”


“When I look at America during these turbulent times, I keep trying to separate style from substance, fact from fiction,” Orr wrote. “This much I know. Our current President has had to operate under extremely difficult conditions over these past several years. In addition, no leader anywhere signed up with the idea that dealing with a worldwide pandemic would be a part of their mandate. The attacks on our president have been unrelenting since the day he took office. Despite that, President Trump has delivered for all American people, regardless of race, gender, or station in life.
I'm not familiar with this guy, but, okay, first off, regarding his last sentence, the hell kind of crack is he on?

Second, uh, yeah, dude, I'm sure there's lots of things presidents in general don't sign up for when taking this job. Like terrorist attacks. Or world wars. Or extreme natural disasters that affect a great deal of the country. Or things of that sort. I imagine most, if not all, of them hope their time in office is relatively calm and uneventful. It's how they deal with those extraordinary moments when they happen that matters.

And I'd remind him that Trump was given a heads up about a potential pandemic, and even had an entire staff and playbook in place that the previous administration had prepared in order to help him manage it better should it happen. And yet he fucked that up on a grand scale.

Also, he can spare me the crap about Trump being "attacked" since the day he took office. 1) Every president has gone through that-hell, some of them have been assassinated, or come close to being assassinated. Trump wanted to be president, his supporters wanted it, this is what comes with the job. Suck it up and deal.

And 2) Considering Trump himself spent virtually all of Obama's presidency fanning the flames of racist birther crap against him, and considering how much shit Obama and his family got from people who couldn't deal with the fact we had a black guy in office, Orr can frankly sit down and be quiet.

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Even Walmart is taking guns and ammo out of their stores in some states.

I never thought I'd live to see such times, honestly wish I hadn't.
And the big reason people are worried about violence is because the guy in charge couldn't just shut his fucking mouth and let our elections run smoothly. In a year where we were already dealing with a lot of stress and anxiety, he decided, "Hey, let's just up the ante!"

Fucking asshole. He can't leave soon enough.

That said, however, while all the concerns about Trump contesting the results are valid, if it does turn out to be a blowout, and if any attempts he makes to contest the results don't wind up going anywhere, who here wonders about the likelihood of Trump trying to flee the country? 'Cause he has also spent the last month on the campaign trail talking about how he may never return to certain states if he loses and whatnot. He knows his goose is cooked in terms of him facing a mountain of legal troubles once he leaves. I truly wouldn't put it past him to try and get out of here and go to a country where he can hide out, too.

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let's just say we all had a stressful day and leave it at that
All I mainly remember of the 2016 election is sitting here that night and begging states to start turning blue, and becoming increasingly horrified as the night went on.

I try not to think about that night if I can help it.

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These morons still don't understand the concept of a lag. Hospitalizations in the midwest and places like El Paso are reaching alarming levels, mortality will follow. Not at the rates we saw in the spring, but a surge in deaths is coming.
There's also the fact that even if people survive this, it's still a problem. It's still a tough virus to deal with, and many survivors have reported lingering health effects afterwards, some of which may be permanent.

But psh, who cares about those pesky facts and logic, right?
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:41 PM   #391
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A heads up as far as NC goes...

NPR's Election Coverage - the first hour (7PM- 8PM EST) will be hosted by NYC's own Brian Lerher.
He just mentioned last night (like Georgia previously) - NC also has been counting their early ballots. Their polls close at 7:30PM. So results also might be in early.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:56 PM   #392
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i just checked the 2016 election day thread - not much talk about exit polls, surprisingly. it's an entertaining read, in the way that the video of the tacoma-narrows bridge collapsing is entertaining.

https://www.u2interference.com/forum...vi-220386.html
I was at Rockefeller Center's Election Night Coverage in '16 as I also had been for both of Obama's Victories
I didn't have a smartphone with a WiFi data yet, and there was no free WiFi for my tablet.
Was w you all in spirit.
I didn't get to read the posts till a day or so later.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:57 PM   #393
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@Moonlit Angel-Bobby Orr is said to be one of the greatest hockey players of all time.

My Mom met him once in an elevator, she loved to tell that story.
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Old 10-30-2020, 04:58 PM   #394
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Not necessarily.
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Old 10-30-2020, 05:52 PM   #395
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https://twitter.com/ericswalwell/sta...696386560?s=21

Let’s get it done.
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Old 10-30-2020, 06:17 PM   #396
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That was awesome.
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Old 10-30-2020, 06:25 PM   #397
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Average lead for Biden (unless otherwise noted) in 11 battlegrounds - A rated pollsters ONLY over the last 2 weeks.

AZ - 5
FL - 3.7
GA - 1.8
IA - 2
MI - 9.3
NV - 6
NC - 2.2
OH - Trump +3 - only 1 poll
PA - 6
TX - Trump +2.5
WI - 9.25
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Old 10-30-2020, 06:36 PM   #398
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It would be a reasonably close race with an off chance of a landslide under fair circumstances. Alas.
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Old 10-30-2020, 07:15 PM   #399
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Lincoln Project posted this. One of the few good things to come out of this whole debacle is The Lincoln Project.


Jared Kushner in 30 Years.


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Old 10-30-2020, 07:42 PM   #400
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It would be a reasonably close race with an off chance of a landslide under fair circumstances. Alas.
I believe that 538 has a Biden landslide (10+ national vote win) at 30% chance.

But since the EC is more important.
They also have Biden winning over 400 electoral votes as the third most likely outcome out of all of their simulations. I think 360ish is second most likely, and 305 or so is the most likely.
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