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Old 10-26-2020, 12:38 PM   #21
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Now TX. This one is just so interesting. First the fact that we all know – They are busting the doors down in early voting. The first state to hit over 80% of the 2016 vote, and I believe the first state that has had several counties that have surpassed the total 2016 vote.
Big picture, I think this is really good news for Dems. The regular rule is that high turnout helps Dems. Saw that sort of backwards in some Iowa polling for Greenfield, but I still think the higher the turnout the better. This is not by accident. Beto and many other ground operations have been working on registration and turnout for 4 years. And it is paying off. I believe the county where Austin is, has 97% of the population as registered voters. That’s pretty astounding.
So what other positive signs are there?

For this, we gotta look at county level results
Let’s look at the highest turnout counties first and compare 2016 to 2018 midterm results
Hays – Trump won by 1 point here in 2018. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by 15 points (16 point swing)
Denton – Trump won by 20 points in 2016. In 2018 Cruz beat Beto by 8 points. (12 points swing)
Williamson - Trump won by 10 points in 2016. In 2018 Beto beat Cruz here by almost 3. (13 point swing)

Now a few others
Collin Co. north of Dallas - Trump won by 16.5 in 2016. In 2018 Cruz won by 6 points (10.5 point swing)
Tarrant, west of Dallas - Trump won by 9 points in 2016, Beto won in 2018 by just under 1. (9.7 swing)
So we are seeing “red” counties swinging at an average of about 13 points. Trump won TX by 9, so this is a good margin to see, if Biden can match Beto’s numbers. One could argue that he probably can’t, since Beto is a TX native fighting a Senate race. But he was also going against a TX native, and one of the biggest names in the Senate. One could also argue that Biden could outperform these numbers, because a lot of registration and work has been done since 2018 to turn out even more Dems.
In large Blue metro areas, Beto also outperformed Clinton.
Harris (Houston) – Clinton won by 12.5 points. Beto won by 16.7 (4 point boost)
Dallas – Clinton won by 26.3. Beto won by 33 points (about a 6.5 point boost)

So make note of these counties, and take a look at the returns coming in on election night, which should come in early from TX. If Biden is matching or beating Beto’s numbers in the red counties (Hays, Denton, Williamson, etc..) and also getting a slightly higher boost than Beto got in Dallas, Houston, and to a lesser extent Austin. Then Biden has a good shot at taking the state.
One bit of troubling news is that the Dem rich vote of south TX is lagging behind the rest of the state in ballots cast. This is where the Biden campaign in focusing on with advertising right now, and I hope it picks up!

A couple other things. Very hard to do mail in voting in TX. You need an excuse there. So only 880K mail ins have been received out of the 702 million votes cast. This will make it good on election night to avoid an initial red or blue "mirage"

Also, the younger vote. Up 24% for 18-39 year olds.
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Old 10-26-2020, 12:59 PM   #22
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We could be heading for a 2nd Amy Corona Barrett super spreader event this afternoon...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/polit...ote/index.html
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:07 PM   #23
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Trump +4 in Texas per the NYT today.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:09 PM   #24
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Trump +4 in Texas per the NYT today.
Oil matters.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:27 PM   #25
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1) it’s Texas, oil isn’t why it’s going red

2) Florida is going red, I parlay my bet of Cam Newton’s performance by week 9 with this
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:38 PM   #26
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Florida will not go for Biden. The GOP will do everything they can to keep it red.

It’s going to come down to PA

Which is why Amy is being confirmed so quickly so the SC can hear the vote by mail case again that they literally just punted on back to the state courts decision
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:41 PM   #27
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It’s less even about what the parties can do.

Floridians are selfish bandwagoners and want to believe the pandemic isn’t real and that masks are dumb and that they can go back to their daily lives. In south Florida. Predominantly blue area. As in, for a blue victory in Florida Florida will be relying more and more on the liberalization of Orlando, because Palm Beach is going red and there’s a whole lotta Cubans in Miami that are chewing up the “Biden is a socialist” thing.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:48 PM   #28
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It’s less even about what the parties can do.

Floridians are selfish bandwagoners and want to believe the pandemic isn’t real and that masks are dumb and that they can go back to their daily lives. In south Florida. Predominantly blue area. As in, for a blue victory in Florida Florida will be relying more and more on the liberalization of Orlando, because Palm Beach is going red and there’s a whole lotta Cubans in Miami that are chewing up the “Biden is a socialist” thing.
Palm Beach went to Clinton by almost 16 points. Agreed on the Cuban thing.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:48 PM   #29
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I appreciate all the thoughtful work/analysis done by womanfish, but I really believe it's in everyone's best interest to write off Florida. That state is a shit show in the best of circumstances and while it would be a pleasant surprise for it to go blue in a week, I really doubt it. Also, The Villages is ten kinds of creepy groupthink, I cannot imagine for the life of me wanting to live out my last years on earth in that godforsaken community.

Texas - if this was the year that Barack Obama was running, I think that he'd take Texas. It's a large enough state that you can get over the line by relying on momentum if you're keeping close enough a week or two out. However, I don't think that Biden can close it out and it's a more likely flip in 4-8 years. That flip IS coming.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:50 PM   #30
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Florida will not go for Biden. The GOP will do everything they can to keep it red.

It’s going to come down to PA

Which is why Amy is being confirmed so quickly so the SC can hear the vote by mail case again that they literally just punted on back to the state courts decision
PA will go for Biden. I think if Biden gets more a "statement" win, then it comes down to NC and AZ. It will also mean that on election night, it won't matter if PA is counting ballots for another week if either or both of these go blue.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:53 PM   #31
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I appreciate all the thoughtful work/analysis done by womanfish, but I really believe it's in everyone's best interest to write off Florida. That state is a shit show in the best of circumstances and while it would be a pleasant surprise for it to go blue in a week, I really doubt it. Also, The Villages is ten kinds of creepy groupthink, I cannot imagine for the life of me wanting to live out my last years on earth in that godforsaken community.

Texas - if this was the year that Barack Obama was running, I think that he'd take Texas. It's a large enough state that you can get over the line by relying on momentum if you're keeping close enough a week or two out. However, I don't think that Biden can close it out and it's a more likely flip in 4-8 years. That flip IS coming.
TX's future worries me though. Biden is doing so well because he is seen as a moderate, honest, down to earth kind of candidate that Texans and midwesterners can get on board with. Oh yeah, and he's a white male.

I'm worried about future candidates and if they will have even close to the same appeal in these areas, that for the foreseeable future will determine the outcome of the election.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:55 PM   #32
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I'm bullish on AZ and to a lesser extent IA for Biden, but not so much NC. I think voter suppression, scare tactics and outright throwing ballots in the trash will offset any Democratic gains and it'll be a headache like Georgia.

That should be enough though. You absolutely cannot convince me that Trump has a chance in the three states that matter most. He will be crushed there and will have to rely on making a mess of the others.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:56 PM   #33
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I still stand by my earlier predictions that Biden will take FL and GA. TX I'm not as optimistic about, even as there are signs that he has a reasonable shot. I also think he will take NC/MI/WI/PA/AZ. but that's more solid ground.

I'm hoping I can say Told ya so! about FL come Nov. 4th. And hell, you won't even be mad at me.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:00 PM   #34
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US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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I'm bullish on AZ and to a lesser extent IA for Biden, but not so much NC. I think voter suppression, scare tactics and outright throwing ballots in the trash will offset any Democratic gains and it'll be a headache like Georgia.

That should be enough though. You absolutely cannot convince me that Trump has a chance in the three states that matter most. He will be crushed there and will have to rely on making a mess of the others.


This is about where I fall. TX is a dream, and, sure, maybe. FL is a fetid fever swamp filled with angry northerners who hated their lives on Long Island and expected palm trees to make it better, but it didn’t, so now what do they do? Fuck ‘em.

NC has a blue governor, and is apparently not a voting shitshow like GA. I feel cautiously good about this one.

IA has lots of uneducated whites, but nice is big there, and one of the many things you can say about Trump is that he is very much not nice at all. Other than their evangelical base, these are not pitchforky conservatives you get in the true South. Kind of same with Ohio, but southern OH has its “by any means necessary” pitchforked conservatives.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:02 PM   #35
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We've hit 61.3 million votes nationally - TX has hit almost 7.4 million (84% of 2016), FL just cleared 6 million (68% of 2016)
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:03 PM   #36
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We've hit 61.3 million votes nationally - TX has hit almost 7.4 million (84% of 2016), FL just cleared 6 million (68% of 2016)


This HAS to be good for Biden though, yes? The whole reason HRC lost was undecided broke for Trump and a lot of folks stayed home. Higher turnouts are always better for D’s, yes?

They don’t seem to be staying home.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:03 PM   #37
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This is about where I fall. TX is a dream, and, sure, maybe. FL is a fetid fever swamp filled with angry northerners who hated their lives on Long Island and expected palm trees to make it better, but it didn’t, so now what do they do? Fuck ‘em.

NC has a blue governor, and is apparently not a voting shitshow like GA. I feel cautiously good about this one.

IA has lots of uneducated whites, but nice is big there, and one of the many things you can say about Trump is that he is very much not nice at all. Other than their evangelical base, these are not pitchforky conservatives you get in the true South. Kind of same with Ohio, but southern OH has its “by any means necessary” pitchforked conservatives.
I keep forgetting about IA. I'm hopeful there, but Trumps +10 win there is a big mountain to climb. But they are much more open to vote across party lines than many other states.
Ohio, I've pretty much given up on this time. I'd say Trump by 2 or so.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:04 PM   #38
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TX's future worries me though. Biden is doing so well because he is seen as a moderate, honest, down to earth kind of candidate that Texans and midwesterners can get on board with. Oh yeah, and he's a white male.

I'm worried about future candidates and if they will have even close to the same appeal in these areas, that for the foreseeable future will determine the outcome of the election.
It's fair point, but Texas is really a case of overwhelming demographic death for the Republicans. A lot of (more) progressive people moving to TX from California, a growing Hispanic population, a younger population than many other states. It's a matter of time. Best case for me is in 4 years, but could take 12.

My prediction is Biden takes all the Clinton states plus WI/PA/MI/AZ/NC. If there are additional states, in my mind they'd be IA, GA. I don't see any other states flipping, but I would take each and every one of them with glee!
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:04 PM   #39
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Palm Beach went to Clinton by almost 16 points. Agreed on the Cuban thing.


Palm Beach County is where I’m originally from. Florida has a youth retention issue - people like me do not stay. We move to New York or whatever. It’s always +15-20. My point was a little poorly written, I don’t believe it’s going to swing for Trump - I mean to say it’s “going red” as in rather “it is reddening”. But that’s supposed to be the chunk of the population that forms the dem base. People here have lost their damn minds man.
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Old 10-26-2020, 02:06 PM   #40
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This HAS to be good for Biden though, yes? The whole reason HRC lost was undecided broke for Trump and a lot of folks stayed home. Higher turnouts are always better for D’s, yes?

They don’t seem to be staying home.


In Florida I can say every single family member and family friend has voted enthusiastically and voted early... for Trump.

Including people who typically don’t have opinions.
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