US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

[womanfish]

Wasserman's most likely places to flip to Biden from 2016

1. Nebraska's 2nd CD
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. North Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Maine's 2nd CD
11. Iowa
12. Ohio

I think this is pretty spot on, except I would move Maine's 2nd up above the number 8 position.

 

[womanfish]

It's always been about the three blue wall states (PA, MI, WI), with another swing state for cushion. If it's AZ, NC, GA, doesn't really matter, but the earlier it reports, the better.

yup. I think we will see NC results first, then GA, and AZ shortly after. Luckily these three states will have pretty quick returns. As will FL, which could be a celebration or swift kick in the balls. Also OH, which may very well stay red, but if Trump only takes it by 1 or 2 points, it will be a good night.

 

[monkeyskin]

I've liked the Guardian site in the past, and NYTimes.

Cheers bud.

 

[womanfish]

National Average Lead 3 Days to Election Day

2000: Bush +2
2004: Bush +2.3
2008: Obama +6.4
2012: Obama +0.5
2016: Clinton +2.9
2020: Biden: +8.7

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Blurbbbbbb stop averaging polls 4 the luv of gawd.

Pls stop world. It’s a bad habit.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Haven't read the article yet, but I've seen the reports about Dr. Fauci's interview with the Washington Post. Apparently puts it all out there about Trump's mishandling of covid, well at least more than he ever has previously.

The timing of it does create the appearance that it's just political on his part. He has had plenty of time to be that candid.

 

[gump]

The strong polling in AZ these past couple of days gives Biden a more clear Plan B if PA is troublesome: AZ + NE-2 get him to 270.

 

[phanan]

The last NYT polls are out this morning.

AZ - Biden +6
PA - Biden +6
FL - Biden +3
WI - Biden +11!

Great results...

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

2024 Election futures are up.

You can have John Cena at +50000
The Rock is +5000 (as is Ted Cruz)

 

[anitram]

2024 Election futures are up.

You can have John Cena at +50000
The Rock is +5000 (as is Ted Cruz)

Is Ye up there too?

I think we are basically where we have been all along. Florida will be a nail biter and will come down to turnout and turnout only.

I am pretty confident that midwestern blue wall will go back to Biden in any event + Arizona. Would be fantastic to add on Georgia and NC.

More importantly the Senate races look fairly good and stable. Collins has crept up too much for my liking in the last week or so but I think that even if she’s within striking distance, ranked voting in Maine really hurts her.

Anybody planning their dinner/snacks for Tuesday? I am trying to think of something delicious in case of victory but that isn’t too gross to vomit at midnight if need be.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Is Ye up there too?

All Sports
8:23 AM
U.S. 2024 Presidential Election
SelectionOdds
Odds to Win the 2024 Presidential Election

Kamala Harris
+300
Nikki Haley
+600
Joe Biden
+700
Mike Pence
+800
Andrew Yang
+1000
Bernie Sanders
+1200
Pete Buttigieg
+1600
Beto O'Rourke
+2000
Stacey Abrams
+2000
Michelle Obama
+2000
Tim Scott
+2000
Mark Cuban
+2500
Elizabeth Warren
+2500
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
+2500
Andrew Cuomo
+2500
Donald Trump Sr.
+3300
John Kasich
+3300
Michael Bloomberg
+3300
Cory Booker
+3300
Amy Klobuchar
+3300
Josh Hawley
+4000
Gretchen Whitmer
+4000
Sherrod Brown
+4000
Deval Patrick
+4000
Ted Cruz
+5000
Dwayne Johnson
+5000
Tom Cotton
+5000
Michael Bennet
+5000
Hillary Clinton
+5000
Kanye West
+5150
Tulsi Gabbard
+6600
Paul Ryan
+6600
Val Demmings
+6600
Oprah Winfrey
+6600
Jon Stewart
+6600
Dan Crenshaw
+6600
Kristi Noem
+6900
Ivanka Trump
+10000
Donald Trump Jr.
+10000
Candace Owens
+10000
Ben Shapiro
+10000
Meghan Markle
+10000
George Clooney
+10000
Ron DeSantis
+12500
Jared Kushner
+15000
Elon Musk
+15000
Tom Steyer
+15000
Tammy Baldwin
+15000
Tammy Duckworth
+15000
LeBron James
+15000
Kirsten Gillibrand
+15000
Gavin Newsom
+15000
Jamie Dimon
+15000
Eric Holder
+15000
Julian Castro
+15000
Bob Iger
+15000
Howard Schultz
+15000
Eric Garcetti
+15000
Rand Paul
+15000
Mike Pompeo
+15000
Condoleezza Rice
+15000
Mitt Romney
+15000
Lindsey Graham
+20000
Tommy Tuberville
+20000
Chelsea Clinton
+20000
Nancy Pelosi
+20000
Jeff Flake
+20000
Charlie Baker
+20000
Greg Abbott
+20000
Bill Gates
+20000
Mark Zuckerberg
+20000
Joe Kennedy III
+20000
George P. Bush
+20000
Kayleigh McEnany
+25000
Clay Travis
+50000
Dana White
+50000
John Cena
+50000
Joe Rogan
+50000
Mitch McConnell
+50000

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I think it's clear that the only person who can win on Tuesday is Joe Biden.

If Trump is going to pull it out, which I'm not discounting, it will be in an extremely tight race that likely lasts weeks and involves the Supreme Court.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1322679224692604928

 

[gump]

This guy is seriously the worst.

[TWEET]1322899819661303808[/TWEET]

 

[Irvine511]

This guy is seriously the worst.

[TWEET]1322899819661303808[/TWEET]

I like Connery as an actor, of course, but I’m sure he and Trump hold similar views on the appropriateness of slapping women.

It’s fine so long as it’s not a closed fist.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Past on?

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

And of course Trump would praise Connery (if it's even true that he helped with his golf course). He views every single human being through the narcissistic lens of how much they praise him, how much they do for him, how much they don't contradict him.

And if they don't conform to that standard, he goes on the attack and he's a grudge holding dog with a bone. He's still got a grudge against Obama over that WH correspondents' dinner. How dare that black man joke about him, at a dinner where everyone jokes about attendees.

 

[Hewson]

All Sports
8:23 AM
U.S. 2024 Presidential Election
SelectionOdds
Odds to Win the 2024 Presidential Election

Kamala Harris
+300
Nikki Haley
+600
Joe Biden
+700
Mike Pence
+800
Andrew Yang
+1000
Bernie Sanders
+1200
Pete Buttigieg
+1600
Beto O'Rourke
+2000
Stacey Abrams
+2000
Michelle Obama
+2000
Tim Scott
+2000
Mark Cuban
+2500
Elizabeth Warren
+2500
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
+2500
Andrew Cuomo
+2500
Donald Trump Sr.
+3300
John Kasich
+3300
Michael Bloomberg
+3300
Cory Booker
+3300
Amy Klobuchar
+3300
Josh Hawley
+4000
Gretchen Whitmer
+4000
Sherrod Brown
+4000
Deval Patrick
+4000
Ted Cruz
+5000
Dwayne Johnson
+5000
Tom Cotton
+5000
Michael Bennet
+5000
Hillary Clinton
+5000
Kanye West
+5150
Tulsi Gabbard
+6600
Paul Ryan
+6600
Val Demmings
+6600
Oprah Winfrey
+6600
Jon Stewart
+6600
Dan Crenshaw
+6600
Kristi Noem
+6900
Ivanka Trump
+10000
Donald Trump Jr.
+10000
Candace Owens
+10000
Ben Shapiro
+10000
Meghan Markle
+10000
George Clooney
+10000
Ron DeSantis
+12500
Jared Kushner
+15000
Elon Musk
+15000
Tom Steyer
+15000
Tammy Baldwin
+15000
Tammy Duckworth
+15000
LeBron James
+15000
Kirsten Gillibrand
+15000
Gavin Newsom
+15000
Jamie Dimon
+15000
Eric Holder
+15000
Julian Castro
+15000
Bob Iger
+15000
Howard Schultz
+15000
Eric Garcetti
+15000
Rand Paul
+15000
Mike Pompeo
+15000
Condoleezza Rice
+15000
Mitt Romney
+15000
Lindsey Graham
+20000
Tommy Tuberville
+20000
Chelsea Clinton
+20000
Nancy Pelosi
+20000
Jeff Flake
+20000
Charlie Baker
+20000
Greg Abbott
+20000
Bill Gates
+20000
Mark Zuckerberg
+20000
Joe Kennedy III
+20000
George P. Bush
+20000
Kayleigh McEnany
+25000
Clay Travis
+50000
Dana White
+50000
John Cena
+50000
Joe Rogan
+50000
Mitch McConnell
+50000

Give me Meghan Markle for $1,000...easy money.

 

[Hewson]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1322679224692604928

I'd love to see Trump on a basketball court, would probably look as smooth with the ball as Bono circa 2001.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'd love to see Trump on a basketball court, would probably look as smooth with the ball as Bono circa 2001.

https://youtu.be/zk2PtczRFRw

Form's not bad, actually.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

He would look good in the shorts

 

[anitram]

Way too early in the morning to bring out that photo.

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/nhannahjones/status/1322897791132250113?s=21

Asking so much sacrifice out of the community that already has so little in comparison to others.

I hope whatever BS they endure is light Tuesday.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

 

[womanfish]

Blurbbbbbb stop averaging polls 4 the luv of gawd.

Pls stop world. It’s a bad habit.

I think it's important to look back at past elections to kind of give us some perspective.

2012 is particularly interesting.
Obama on up .5 nationally, but wins WI by 7, MI by 9 and PA by 3. Those state numbers look pretty damn familiar...
So polls were off by more in 2012 than in 2016, just the other way.

Sorry, numbers are about the only thing that keeps me calm in these anxious days.

 

[LemonMelon]

Trump actively praised violence and voter suppression on his Twitter this morning, so that's something.

 

[Hewson]

He would look good in the shorts

View attachment 12673

I literally just finished eating and popped back on here to see this.

 

[Hewson]

https://youtu.be/zk2PtczRFRw

Form's not bad, actually.

"You get paper towels, and you get paper towels, and you get paper towels....."

"...EVERYBODY GETS PAPER TOWELS!!!!"

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/1322695902360969216

Cause you know, Lady G always follows this advice.

 

[Irvine511]

Ralston has called NV based on the early vote. It’s not a swing state. HRC won and Biden is expected to win. But what happened in NV showed no surprises, and the voting going pretty much as predicted. We will have to see if there’s some biblical surge of red on Election Day (still won’t change NV), but it sounds like predictions and polling are looking reasonably accurate.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

And keeping in mind that NPAs will break life for Biden this year, and that a lot of people left Vegas because of COVID and job loss.