US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

[dazzledbylight]

A heads up as far as NC goes...

NPR's Election Coverage - the first hour (7PM- 8PM EST) will be hosted by NYC's own Brian Lerher.
He just mentioned last night (like Georgia previously) - NC also has been counting their early ballots. Their polls close at 7:30PM. So results also might be in early.

 

[dazzledbylight]

i just checked the 2016 election day thread - not much talk about exit polls, surprisingly. it's an entertaining read, in the way that the video of the tacoma-narrows bridge collapsing is entertaining.

https://www.u2interference.com/foru...idential-election-thread-part-xvi-220386.html

I was at Rockefeller Center's Election Night Coverage in '16 as I also had been for both of Obama's Victories
I didn't have a smartphone with a WiFi data yet, and there was no free WiFi for my tablet.
Was w you all in spirit.
I didn't get to read the posts till a day or so later.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

@Moonlit Angel-Bobby Orr is said to be one of the greatest hockey players of all time.

My Mom met him once in an elevator, she loved to tell that story.

 

[dazzledbylight]

[TWEET]1322214250413215744[/TWEET]

The tipping point may be behind us already.

Not necessarily.

 

[anitram]

https://twitter.com/ericswalwell/status/1322161334696386560?s=21

Let’s get it done.

 

[gump]

https://twitter.com/ericswalwell/status/1322161334696386560?s=21

Let’s get it done.

That was awesome.

 

[womanfish]

Average lead for Biden (unless otherwise noted) in 11 battlegrounds - A rated pollsters ONLY over the last 2 weeks.

AZ - 5
FL - 3.7
GA - 1.8
IA - 2
MI - 9.3
NV - 6
NC - 2.2
OH - Trump +3 - only 1 poll
PA - 6
TX - Trump +2.5
WI - 9.25

 

[LemonMelon]

It would be a reasonably close race with an off chance of a landslide under fair circumstances. Alas.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Lincoln Project posted this. One of the few good things to come out of this whole debacle is The Lincoln Project.


Jared Kushner in 30 Years.

 

[womanfish]

It would be a reasonably close race with an off chance of a landslide under fair circumstances. Alas.

I believe that 538 has a Biden landslide (10+ national vote win) at 30% chance.

But since the EC is more important.
They also have Biden winning over 400 electoral votes as the third most likely outcome out of all of their simulations. I think 360ish is second most likely, and 305 or so is the most likely.

 

[DaveC]

friendly reminder that most of the lincoln project's founders are bush (both) era republicans. the architects of devastating wars that killed scores of innocent people. the same people funding these clever viral videos and memes actively fought against rights for anyone other than straight white christian men for decades. they may despise trump now but that doesn't make them good people. remember they were initially against trump because of the damage he was doing to their party.

the lincoln project is not on our side, this is purely a "the enemy of my enemy" situation.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/davidmweissman/status/1322180481245417477?s=19


It is possible for people to change. And when they start rethinking their world view in general, it can turn into an avalanche where you begin to question everything about what you used to believe was right.

Dismissing everyone from The Lincoln Project, or just republicans in general who have stood up and jumped ship, would be a mistake

 

[DaveC]

Dismissing everyone from The Lincoln Project, or just republicans in general who have stood up and jumped ship, would be a mistake

i agree completely, which is why i didn't go nearly this far in my post.

i'm talking about the founders and major funders of this specific group. let's not give them too much credit. they're not doing this to do a good thing, they're doing this to take back control of the GOP from the trumpists.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Generally speaking - for the love of God please don't get your wallet inspected by the fucking Lincoln Project.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Generally speaking - for the love of God please don't get your wallet inspected by the fucking Lincoln Project.

Whatcha mean? Did I miss something??


Also, Brett Favre is swinging for Trump. No surprise there.

 

[Irvine511]

i agree completely, which is why i didn't go nearly this far in my post.

i'm talking about the founders and major funders of this specific group. let's not give them too much credit. they're not doing this to do a good thing, they're doing this to take back control of the GOP from the trumpists.

Also, they genuinely believe Trump is a would-be autocrat and presents an existential threat to American democracy. He walks and talks and looks and has the taste level of a second rate Eastern European dictator, and would, if he could, jail his opponents and murder journalists.

This isn’t to say they don’t still hold bad policy beliefs, but they do put country over party.

 

[gump]

Biden hit 90% on the 538 forecast for the first time today. This is looking more like 2012 than 2016 (though Obama had an EC advantage despite being just a couple of points ahead in the National polls).

 

[DaveC]

Brett Favre is swinging for Trump.

this seems like a poor deal for brett's wife

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Hiyoooooooooo

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1322386340508508162?s=19

If Tuesday truly is the end of the stupidest timeline, at least they're going out with the stupidest made up story yet.

 

[mikal]

Whatcha mean? Did I miss something??


Also, Brett Favre is swinging for Trump. No surprise there.

Just another late game INT.

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1322386340508508162?s=19

If Tuesday truly is the end of the stupidest timeline, at least they're going out with the stupidest made up story yet.

seriously hilarious. 3 weeks ago Bannon said he had a treasure trove of documents that would sink Hunter/Joe Biden. No release. A Hunter Biden dossier was spread all over right wing social media early this week. It was debunked within hours. Dainty li'l Tucker and his lost and then suddenly found documents, that are... just sitting on his desk I guess. Now a what? A fourth laptop?

When Ted Fucking Cruz tells you that this shit doesn't move one vote, then maybe you should just stop making yourself look even more stupid than you already are.

 

[womanfish]

Almost 89 million votes in. Keep your eye on the TX numbers as they do all night voting last night through Saturday. Keeping my fingers crossed for 12 million or close to it after election day.

If anyone wants to keep tabs on the very most up to date vote totals, you can go here

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC

It's a little step ahead of the US Elections project.

 

[womanfish]

Again, I think it's important to remember the vote share and not just the vote margin when we look at the polls. Remember, Clinton won 48% of the popular vote and Trump 46%. Biden's current national vote share is 52% - Trump's current national share is 43%

I'm going to round the numbers here for the states. (538 polling averages)

AZ - 49%
FL - 49%
GA - 48%
IA - 47%
MI - 52%
NV - 50%
NC - 49%
OH - 46%
PA - 50%
TX - 47%
WI - 52%

Trump's highest vote share in any of these states is 47%

If we give Biden the states he is 50 or over in he wins - 280 to 225
If we give Biden the states he is 49 or over in he wins - 335 to 203
If we give Biden the states he is 48 or over in he wins - 351 to 187

Since Trump does reach 47% in some of these states, I'm cutting it off at 48%. This may help to put what is happening in perspective. Trump has 47% share in IA, GA, and TX. But two of these states are setting off the charts turnout records. Which may bring us some surprises.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

this seems like a poor deal for brett's wife

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1322386340508508162?s=19

If Tuesday truly is the end of the stupidest timeline, at least they're going out with the stupidest made up story yet.

The lengths they're going over these mysterious laptops and e-mails...it's hilarious and sad all at the same time. Let. It. Go.

I'm enjoying the snark in the comments below.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Trump in Green Bay-"There will be no heating in the winter, no air conditioning in the summer, and no electricity" if Biden wins.

Wtaf, people get hypothermia and pass out from the heat and expose themselves to covid to listen to this buffoon.

 

[anitram]

Trump in Green Bay-"There will be no heating in the winter, no air conditioning in the summer, and no electricity" if Biden wins.

Is Biden Amish?

 

[gump]

Don’t forget all the buildings he would rebuild with tiny windows.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Those tiny windowed buildings are gonna be hot as shit without any AC

 

[anitram]

Sounds architecturally delightful!

Given what’s happening with early voting in Miami-Dade, I’m even more sure Florida is a lost cause. I’d written it off long ago but the problematic turnout there is really not good.