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Old 10-28-2020, 02:48 PM   #221
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Jared Kushner bragged in April that Trump was taking the country 'back from the doctors'
As an android, Jared has no need for doctors, so this stance absolutely makes sense.
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Old 10-28-2020, 02:52 PM   #222
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"Melania, what's the web address for Porn Hub?"
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Old 10-28-2020, 03:27 PM   #223
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This is so ridiculous. This is a good polling house, but why would you release a poll with 8% (or maybe 7??)
And then this persons take about undecideds going to Trump. Consistent polls have shown undecideds are breaking to Biden by about 30 points. Independents in the midwest have a 30 point unfavorable of Trump.

These are people just begging for some kind of attention or replies or an "I told you so" after election day.

ABC, another A pollster had it +17 in WI today.

I'm treating these both as outliers, average them together, and you get Biden +11 and I'll leave it at that.
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Old 10-28-2020, 03:35 PM   #224
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As an android, Jared has no need for doctors, so this stance absolutely makes sense.
I love how he said "the most dangerous people around the President are over confident idiots".

1. The President is the biggest over confident idiot to ever occupy the WH.

2. Jared is an over confident idiot. Ivanka too.
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Old 10-28-2020, 03:35 PM   #225
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The only October Surprise that would have made a difference is a fullproof COVID-19 vaccine. The pharmaceutical companies looked at the ramifications of rushing something out and told him to go fuck himself. Then cases skyrocketed. That's all she wrote.
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Old 10-28-2020, 03:44 PM   #226
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This is so ridiculous. This is a good polling house, but why would you release a poll with 8% (or maybe 7??)

And then this persons take about undecideds going to Trump. Consistent polls have shown undecideds are breaking to Biden by about 30 points. Independents in the midwest have a 30 point unfavorable of Trump.



These are people just begging for some kind of attention or replies or an "I told you so" after election day.



ABC, another A pollster had it +17 in WI today.



I'm treating these both as outliers, average them together, and you get Biden +11 and I'll leave it at that.


Favorability numbers are not a gradient. We live in a very polarized and binary time. If Trump was 60% unfavorable, the other 40% might love him with no gap whatsoever. Additionally, if Joe Biden is 30% unfavorable, there could be overlap where someone thinks both candidates are unfavorable, so a Trump unfavorable might still vote for him.

I think it is a very safe conservative approach to assume that anyone at this point who will not say who they are voting for is voting for Donald Trump. Which is actually why I would have a greater confidence in this election than in 2016. Joe Biden has shown in a lot of Paul’s ability to crack 48% - in a battleground state, that’s usually enough where you typically don’t see both candidates get over that value. Clinton consistently failed to reach these polling numbers in polls she led. The loan exception to that I believe was PA, where the results were shocking to say the least.

But yeah, I would venture to say the majority of the blame in 2016 was people who didn’t show up to vote. I sure as hell don’t think that peopl hadn’t made their minds up until the day of the election regardless of what they claim. These people were just too shy to admit their own selfishness and greed.
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Old 10-28-2020, 04:28 PM   #227
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Shouldn’t be hard to tell but my major concern is that Dems have gone all in on the mail and that Trump plans to say forgetaboutit


https://twitter.com/nielslesniewski/...886992384?s=21

I mean he’s literally saying it out loud. He’s done so from the beginning.
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Old 10-28-2020, 04:33 PM   #228
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I just hope the Democratic party has a plan to counter attack all the BS after Biden wins other than feeling outraged. I’m actually less worried about the election results and more worried about Trump getting away with cheating.
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Old 10-28-2020, 04:42 PM   #229
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https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1321500882865999874

whereas special advisor to the president rat fucker just comes right out and says the crazy qanon shit publicly.
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Old 10-28-2020, 04:45 PM   #230
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I think the distinctive Dem advantage in AZ is that it has a tiny rural population compared to the Midwest, so they are left with the suburban Republicans that the GOP is hemorrhaging.
Regarding the rural voters, that's another thing-I know some GOP members kinda tried to distance themselves a bit from Trump's attacks on mail-in ballots this year because so many of their voters came from rural areas, and Trump's attempts to screw with mail-in votes would've hurt rural voters-aka, potential GOP supporters'-chances of getting their votes in. It would be rather hilarious (in a, "My god, you guys are beyond pathetic" sort of way) if his attacks on mail-in voting came back to bite him and his party in the ass on that front, by ultimately having made it harder for their own supporters to vote for them.

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I just hope the Democratic party has a plan to counter attack all the BS after Biden wins other than feeling outraged. I’m actually less worried about the election results and more worried about Trump getting away with cheating.
This. Fight like hell on this. Do not give them even an inch to claim any kind of unearned victory. I know there's been talk about how Biden's team has some great lawyers on hand and whatnot, though, so between that, and the fact they've raised so much money and have some big donors on their side, as well as some pretty prominent Republicans, I'm hoping that will make it easier for them to fight whatever nonsense Trump tries to pull.
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Old 10-28-2020, 04:52 PM   #231
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Honestly I hope whatever "plan" Dems have include mass demonstrations to call for all the votes to be counted, because relying solely on the judicial system...um.... will not work. A general strike should not be off the table if it is clear that Trump is trying to steal the election and the Supreme Court is willing to go with it.
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Old 10-28-2020, 05:24 PM   #232
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Those mass demonstrations better include people going on strike and shutting down everything. Kinda like the TSA years ago that got the government shutdown to end.

Trump and the GOP are banking on mass protests but they’re also assuming that after a few weeks, maybe a month people will just accept nothing can be done and go back to work and get on with their lives.

It can’t just be a march. It has to have a real financial impact.
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Old 10-28-2020, 05:31 PM   #233
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Very good polling day for Biden today. I will post later, cause I have to do actual work.

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Old 10-28-2020, 05:53 PM   #234
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One thing I find interesting in the 538 pick-your-own-adventure simulator is that if Biden wins Maine's 2nd congressional district, which is kind of a toss up but poll averages show him 4 points ahead (with little polling, to be sure), his odds of winning the election go all the way up to 97% (I think mostly because it's a bellwether of how the white working class in the midwest is likely to vote). NH is similar to some extent - winning it increases Biden's odds by 5 points. I'll be watching if any weird things are happening there early in the evening next Tuesday.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:06 PM   #235
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SCOTUS decided that they would let their new conservative superhero get up to speed before they decided to not let Pennsylvania count votes that should legally be counted.

This can not be said enough

1. It must be a blowout
2. DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOT.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:09 PM   #236
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So apparently Giuliani flipped out during an interview on Fox Business Network.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...070119082.html

And this is the guy people think is believable and trustworthy when it comes to all this Biden stuff. Incredible.
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:17 PM   #237
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So apparently Giuliani flipped out during an interview on Fox Business Network.



https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...070119082.html



And this is the guy people think is believable and trustworthy when it comes to all this Biden stuff. Incredible.
Hold on... that's MTV Kennedy?
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:19 PM   #238
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Yes I believe she is MTV Kennedy
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:20 PM   #239
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Alternative Nation to Fox Business is a hell of a leap
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Old 10-28-2020, 06:21 PM   #240
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