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Old 10-28-2020, 09:42 AM   #181
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https://twitter.com/MattVereen/statu...23007000924160
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:52 AM   #182
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my level of anxiety from now until next tuesday (wednesday? thanksgiving?) will be slowly but surely be increasing to unsustainable levels.

he can not win. our country can not survive another four years of this. i do not want my children to grow up in a land where this is considered normal and okay. he must lose.
I think that is the thing that is getting me. I know how I, and every other Dem felt on election night last time. I can't imagine what would happen to us if Trump won this time.
Trump winning would be something catastrophic, the likes of which we've never seen. I don't think that people are fully grasping the edge of the cliff that our country is standing on.

The Nevada thing is worrisome, but I'm hoping that the pending mail vote will make it look better. I can't see NV going red, but definitely gotta keep our eye on it. Also, keep in mind that in the last NYT poll of NV this week, it showed 7% of Reps voting for Biden. That, along with Ind. votes leaning Biden, give me some reassurance.

We'll make it. But shit, I am just a pile of nerves right now.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:55 AM   #183
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i don't know how much stock i can put into poll numbers changing now that so many people have already voted.
Most of these polls will ask whether people have already voted, and will weigh this accordingly, so that +17 (which seems like an outlier, but still) tries to account for that.

I mean, Wisconsin having the worst COVID outbreak in the country right now probably affects voters' perception of Trump.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:56 AM   #184
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Nate Silver to the rescue:

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Old 10-28-2020, 09:58 AM   #185
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I think the 2016 election creates natural anxiety, and combine that with the GOP literally cheating out in the open, and there’s a sense of hopelessness. Thankfully, the polls are so heavily in Biden’s favor that it would be a catastrophic polling error if he actually lost. And if he does actually win, and Trump still tries to steal it, that may be the tipping point of America saying “enough is enough”.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:58 AM   #186
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Good thread by Nate Silver on NV numbers.


I'm not sure that some of these early-voting comparisons to 2016 make a ton of sense given that much of Biden's edge is thought to come from independents breaking his way, and early voting statistics won't capture that.
For example, Clinton lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads them by 3 points, in an average of the last 6 polls of the state. That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.
In many state/national polls, Biden also gets a slightly higher share of Republicans than Trump does of Democrats. In Nevada polls, for instance, Trump gets 6% of Democrats but Biden gets 9% of Republicans. That's amounts to about a 2 point swing to Biden vs. 2016.

So if you had the same partisan turnout split as in 2016 in Nevada but with this year's partisan breakdown of the vote, Biden would win by ~8 points not ~2 like Clinton. Probably though the split will be a bit worse for Democrats which is why polls have him up ~6 instead.
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Old 10-28-2020, 09:58 AM   #187
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There would be some karmic justice if Trump somehow wins PA, only to see his reelection bid fail because McCain voters went for Biden, giving him Arizona, getting him to 270 electoral votes.
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:05 AM   #188
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More reassurance from Dave Wasserman

PA
So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley.

Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't.


TX
Travis Co., TX (Austin) just hit 470,535 votes cast, surpassing its 2016 total of 468,720 a full week before Election Day.
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:14 AM   #189
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...49476217856000

Arizona is a massive complication in Trump's re-election bid. If Biden carries the state (and he is ahead and there is no real history of the polls in AZ underestimating GOP), it likely means Trump needs to win 2 of MI, PA, & WI. Not just 1.
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:19 AM   #190
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Florida never seems too far out of reach, but there are so many variables involved that no one can ever feel confident about its allegiances, especially if they lived through 2000. Florida will never be easy. But it is entirely possible that it is swept away in a landslide election, more so than Texas.

Ranking my confidence level, greatest to least:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
North Carolina

Iowa
Florida
Georgia
Ohio
Texas
This is a great list. I think I would agree on all counts, except for a couple.

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
North Carolina
Florida
Iowa
Georgia

Texas
Ohio


I think Iowa and GA are about tied in my book. IA is a sleeper for sure. No one is paying attention to Biden's upswing there, since it doesn't have many EV's. But I think my bolded ones are ones I'm pretty confident about them flipping, The last two, very uncertain.
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:21 AM   #191
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Anyone know where to find early voting numbers for PA? US Election project only has PA mail-in ballots returned, nothing from in person early voting.
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:39 AM   #192
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How did these assholes win an election?

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Old 10-28-2020, 10:52 AM   #193
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How did these assholes win an election?



Because a large portion of the population only wants to see the other side suffer, own the libs

They’ll gladly give up everything for a win
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Old 10-28-2020, 10:58 AM   #194
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Hope this helps your nerves a bit... New update from Jon Ralston

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...-voting-blog-3
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Old 10-28-2020, 11:49 AM   #195
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I know that we are all on edge, but all signs indicate that the Trump campaign knows that AZ is out of reach. Even Karl Rove, who feels good about Florida, sees Arizona as a loss for Trump. There is almost no chance of Trump losing Arizona and winning Nevada.
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Old 10-28-2020, 11:56 AM   #196
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The John McCain stuff probably destroyed Arizona for him. Plus an appointed senator going hardline for Trump was a dumb fucking idea, when their beloved senator was at war with Trump. I don’t see Arizona as blue, but that area of the country (NV, Utah, etc.) has repeatedly shown its red folks are not here for Trumpism in the way that the south and Midwest are.
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Old 10-28-2020, 12:07 PM   #197
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I know that we are all on edge, but all signs indicate that the Trump campaign knows that AZ is out of reach. Even Karl Rove, who feels good about Florida, sees Arizona as a loss for Trump. There is almost no chance of Trump losing Arizona and winning Nevada.
And I feel pretty confident that if Biden wins AZ he will not lose the presidency, so there's that.

I agree, it feels like AZ has been flying under the radar but it's a better Plan B than Florida.
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Old 10-28-2020, 12:10 PM   #198
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The John McCain stuff probably destroyed Arizona for him. Plus an appointed senator going hardline for Trump was a dumb fucking idea, when their beloved senator was at war with Trump. I don’t see Arizona as blue, but that area of the country (NV, Utah, etc.) has repeatedly shown its red folks are not here for Trumpism in the way that the south and Midwest are.
I think the distinctive Dem advantage in AZ is that it has a tiny rural population compared to the Midwest, so they are left with the suburban Republicans that the GOP is hemorrhaging.
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Old 10-28-2020, 01:05 PM   #199
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I know that we are all on edge, but all signs indicate that the Trump campaign knows that AZ is out of reach. Even Karl Rove, who feels good about Florida, sees Arizona as a loss for Trump. There is almost no chance of Trump losing Arizona and winning Nevada.
And if there's no chance of Trump winning Nevada, there's no Hillary-won state for him to realistically steal. Which makes his electoral path extremely narrow.

538's "winding path to victory" graphic illustrates this pretty well. With PA as the tipping point, losing AZ is not an option. I often forget how populous that state is; it's a more substantive get than WI.
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Old 10-28-2020, 01:17 PM   #200
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This is good:

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