US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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One other thing to keep in mind poll wise. There has been a wave of very low quality, non-live caller state polling over the last couple weeks. I'm really hoping for some big name, high-rated, live caller state polls in the next week or so. Fox News where are you?!? Fox had some of the best state polls in 2016 accuracy wise. I would love to see another OH poll from them. Definitely an IA, GA, NC and FL would be great. Guess i would throw in AZ too.

It's just hard to get a handle on state polls when we don't have more trusted polls coming in.
 
Just incredible how this validates Q Anon and their deep, sincere concern for children trapped in the clutches of Satan worshipping cannibals like Tom Hanks and, now we know, Hunter Biden.

And just days before the final debate!

They must be on to something.
 
Interesting district level polling.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317893364491161601

We don't know where this is (come on man) But my guess its a deep red state. Kind of goes along with my theory that the gap in national and state polling is due to larger shifts blue in deep red states that will nonetheless, go red overall.

But, I have seen other district polls in swing states that do give me hope that there is something more going on than even the state polls are letting on.
 
Violence is a given at this point.

Imagine the outrage when a President Biden announces a national mask mandate.

Or if we’re into our 5th surge or the first wave and the data / science shows mass lockdowns are needed.

Even without any of that, 40% of the country will believe Biden is running a child trafficking from the White House
 
So the Gulliani laptop thing is falling apart faster than the border wall after a heavy rain.

BREAKING: Hunter Biden was living in California when Rudy Giuliani claims he dropped his laptop off for repair in Delaware. Now Giuliani says he never saw the laptop, but just copies of a hard drive.

Looking at metadata it seems that emails were created after the laptop was supposedly dropped off.

This on top of the confusing and laughable story from the shop owner.

And of course on top of Intelligence Agencies saying that li'l Rudy has been under surveillance for being worked as a Russian asset for the last year or so.
 
I would have expected more from the Russians than engaging an old drunk.
 
Their unifying theory is that Trump supporters are all terrified of going on record as voting for him given that the leftist media is in cahoots with Antifa and being honest with a pollster exposes them to violence. And it’s definitely not just bots - it’s all over right leaning blogs.

I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis. Yeah, the Trump campaign seems to be stuck in 2016, desperately wanting to go back to the days when Trump didn't have a record of his time in office for people to judge him by. There's also the fact that they're trying to pull this sort of bizarre moral high ground/"their side is just as bad, if not worse!" thing, but it's awfully hard to make that stick when your party is batshit insane and getting crueler and more corrupt by the day.
 
I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis. Yeah, the Trump campaign seems to be stuck in 2016, desperately wanting to go back to the days when Trump didn't have a record of his time in office for people to judge him by. There's also the fact that they're trying to pull this sort of bizarre moral high ground/"their side is just as bad, if not worse!" thing, but it's awfully hard to make that stick when your party is batshit insane and getting crueler and more corrupt by the day.



I think there are a lot less proud Trump voters than the Internet makes seem, but I definitely believe in what Id call the “silent minority” (ya know, because the majority never supported him). The silent minority consists of pretty much anyone who claims to be “undecided” but clearly voted for him in 2016 and doesn’t talk about it.

A lot of our parents.
 
I agree with your parents statement. I can see this, but I also think that our parents would tell a pollster they are voting Trump, even if they may not tell their neighbor or friends.
 
Interesting NC voting info on what has come in so far.

Obviously we have to take into consideration the early vote being heavy Dem. But look at that number for Black voters. 1% for Republican!

Also, you can probably split the "unaffiliated" number and split it about 60/40 to Biden.

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1317846783393935360

Also note the "all other parties" returns. This shows what I was predicting. Seeing third parties with 3,4,5% on polls just wasn't gonna happen.

If you split the unaffiliated number 60/40 to Biden - The returns for the state would be 63-36 Biden-Trump. If you split it 55/45 it would be 61.5-38.5 Biden - Trump.
 
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I wouldn’t read too much into early voting. All I can think is republicans are more likely to show up on Election Day in anti-mask fashion whereas democrats are more likely to heed public health warnings and vote alternatively.
 
It does make me wonder, with COVID likely getting worse in the next two weeks, if more people won’t be afraid to go to the polls on Election Day. I know hard core Trump supporters won’t go, but he cannot get elected with hard core supporters only - and Dems will have banked in a lot of their votes at that point.
 
So the Gulliani laptop thing is falling apart faster than the border wall after a heavy rain.
:lol: :lol:

Btw have you seen the 2 part map of how much Wall has actually been built? :lmao:
*First you see a map of ?most of the Mexico/USA border.
*Then the second one zooms in on a (?few) Texas County(ies) Southern/Mexican Border. You see a heavier darkened line drawn along this border about 1/15th the size of the border zoom in that you are looking at! :lmao:
Pathetic!!!!!

I'm very glad no more $$$ and worker power was put into this ridiculousness in the first place. It's just "funny" for all his bluster in -this- case, anyway!
I would have expected more from the Russians than engaging an old drunk.
:lol: :lol:
I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis.
Agreeing with you and wf.

Yahoo just had an article saying that more non-college white men (seems like a bunch might be 30s - 40s) are recently fed up with in the past couple of weeks to finally turn away.

Me? I'm alternating between quietly hopeful and various levels of nervousness. Sometimes both at once.

+s] Higher pollings #s, less Trump signs in previous high sinage areas + more Biden signs, serious lawyering, cyber security continuing to be tuned, high $$$ still in for H/B, Senate & House candidates. High intensely dedicated turn out.

-s] Russia/votes hacking. Militias/white terrorists. It's 2020.

So that's imho. :)

Oh, yeah, the violence. :( Probably going to be some.
I just sure hope it won't be massive, at the least.
I've also heard of liberals who own guns that might carry in legal States to nearby the polls to hopefully just be a visual detterant to any ws, neo-nazis types.
:sigh:
 
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I finally got my absentee ballot!

A chill went through me - this election, this cv19!
I've never needed/wanted to vote by mail. I've never voted early. It's always been pull the lever, now fill in the little ovals and scan on Election Day.

I have to look the ballot over w a fine tooth comb. Read the on-line NYS how to fill.out the ballot guidelines.
Then I'll probably take it to our Bronx Board of Elections drop box. Haven't quite made up my mind on that - here it's seems you can tell your poll worker that you've changed your mind and want to either vote in person, or they'll have a box for the absentee ballots. My area is mostly Democrats, maybe a few Independents etc.

I might split my vote between the Democratic Party, and the Working Families Party - a more progressive party, that I think I signed the petition to get their line on the (then) machine ballots, oh, ? 28 yrs ago or so. Will look up.
 
I wouldn’t read too much into early voting. All I can think is republicans are more likely to show up on Election Day in anti-mask fashion whereas democrats are more likely to heed public health warnings and vote alternatively.

Yeah, the more you look at the early numbers the more confusing it can be. One thing seems for sure and like I wrote in my long winded post before, I think the hardcore Trumpers were/are voting in person early voting.
The regular Trump voters will probably split with some early voting and some Election Day, and old school gop are going to go more on Election Day.

Also, early voting numbers can be hard to glean anything from nationally since some states don’t have party affiliation listed. Biggest takeaway is that we will have very high turnout and that could make a big difference, especially in the closest states like NC, FL, IA, OH, AZ GA and TX. Damn that’s a lot of close states.
 
GA I think is genuinely in play but I’m not holding my breath for Texas lol. I think the black vote in GA might fine well show up in historic numbers there after what happened in 2018.
 
Just a bit here on the sign wars. I live in a suburb of Nashville, about 20 minutes or so out. VERY conservative area, like all places 20 minutes outside a city in Tennessee.
Trump won in my county by 45 points!! In my neighborhood, its been interesting. No Trump signs. I think for the most part, people here try to be... polite about their political signage. So no signs at all up until about a few weeks ago.

Local race signs popped up a couple months ago. The mayoral race has a woman running that has been labeled a "progressive Democrat". One person in our neighborhood said that she won't vote for her because she doesn't know if she will bring a "changing demographic" to our town. :| Yeah.
Anyway, signs for her are everywhere and far outnumber the current mayor. Also, In my hood, I've now seen 5 Biden signs and a few signs that say - We believe in science - black lives matter - womens rights are human rights - LGBTQ pride, etc... So as good as a biden sign.

Interesting to see here, and i am wondering if maybe Biden only loses by like 30 this time around. LOL.
 
TX has hit 4 million votes. Almost 44% of their 2016 total. Holy shit. Could this really happen??!?!??! (knocking on all the wood in my house)
 
Talk about the ultimate example of not knowing what a song means. Sickeningly ironically stupid.


Some folks are born, silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, y'all
But when the taxman comes to the door
Lord, the house looks like a rummage sale, yeah



The Hill.com

Musician John Fogerty lashed out at President Trump on Friday and said he is issuing a cease-and-desist order over the president's campaign using the famous Creedence Clearwater Revival song "Fortunate Son" at events.

"I object to the President using my song, 'Fortunate Son' in any way for his campaign. He is using my words and my voice to portray a message that I do not endorse," the rock icon shared in a statement on Twitter.

"Therefore, I am issuing a 'cease and desist' order. I wrote this song because, as a veteran, I was disgusted that some people were allowed to be excluded from serving our country because they had access to political and financial privilege. I also wrote about wealthy people not paying their fair share of taxes," he continued.

Fogerty added that "Mr. Trump is a prime example of both of these issues. The fact that Mr. Trump also fans the flames of hatred, racism and fear while rewriting recent history, is even more reason to be troubled by his use of my song."
 
It's looking like the earliest a potential pfizer vaccine could begin rollout is in mid to late November.

Which makes me think that the administration knew all along that the earliest time line took it just past election day - and why they've done two things.

a) a desperate plea to get it moved up a few weeks

b) a hard push of the "they'll open everything up right after the election" narrative... to make a coincidental medical breakthrough appear as if it is some kind of deep state ploy to keep the base fired up after an inevitable defeat.
 
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Don’t forget... the president of the United States is totally responsible for the development of a vaccine because he told the capitalist companies to do something they would not have done without his or her instruction.
 
LAS VEGAS (AP) — President Donald Trump sought Monday to buck up his campaign staffers two weeks from Election Day, dismissing the cautionary coronavirus advice of his scientific experts as well as polling showing him trailing Democratic rival Joe Biden across key battleground states.

Trump was facing intense pressure to turn around his campaign, hoping for the type of last-minute surge that revived his candidacy four years ago and plunging into an aggressive travel schedule despite the pandemic. But his lack of a consistent message, the surging virus cases and his attacks on experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci could undermine final efforts to appeal to voters outside of his most loyal base.

Speaking to campaign aides on a conference call, Trump said he believes he’s going to win, allowing that he didn’t have that same sense of confidence two weeks ago when he was hospitalized with COVID-19. One week since returning to the campaign trail, where his handling of the pandemic is a central issue to voters, Trump blasted his government’s own scientists for their criticism of his performance.

“People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots,” Trump said of Fauci, declaring the government’s top infectious disease expert “a disaster.” But Fauci is both respected and popular, and Trump suggested firing the doctor would only create greater controversy. Trump’s rejection of scientific advice on the pandemic has already drawn bipartisan condemnation.

Fauci, in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday, said he was not surprised that Trump contracted the virus after he held large events with few face coverings. Fauci also objected to the president’s campaign using his words in a campaign ad.

“I was worried that he was going to get sick when I saw him in a completely precarious situation of crowded, no separation between people, and almost nobody wearing a mask,” Fauci said of the president.
 
Lol. His closing message is to go to war with Fauci, who is probably twice as popular as he is.
 
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