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Old 10-24-2020, 04:13 PM   #961
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Obama with the best line of the campaign: "Florida man wouldn't even do this stuff".
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Old 10-24-2020, 04:49 PM   #962
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Obama with the best line of the campaign: "Florida man wouldn't even do this stuff".
Lol, I missed that one

Last night I watched The Way I See It on Peacock. It was on MSNBC this past week but I had missed it.

It's about Pete Souza, the official WH photographer for Obama. Such a good show, but it made me even more depressed. And I don't say that lightly or disrespectfully, because I live with depression.
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Old 10-24-2020, 05:00 PM   #963
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I feel this so much.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnnaForFl...75679570911234
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Old 10-24-2020, 05:01 PM   #964
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Nepotism problems I really can't stand nepotism Ken and Barbie

Politico.com


By CAITLIN OPRYSKO

10/24/2020 11:59 AM EDT

Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are threatening to sue the Lincoln Project over billboards the anti-Trump group put up in Times Square assailing them over the White House's coronavirus response.

In a letter to the group posted on Twitter on Friday night, an attorney for the president’s daughter and son-in-law demanded the “false, malicious and defamatory” billboards be taken down.


Marc Kasowitz warned that if the ads stay up, “we will sue you for what will doubtless be enormous compensatory and punitive damages.”

The Lincoln Project was defiant, saying in a scathing public statement that the billboards would stay up.
Oh, no, no, no, no, noooooooo, guys. If your dad/father-in-law gets to go after Hunter Biden and you don't have a peep to say about that, then you don't get to whine about people going after you. Especially since, y'know, you're actually working for this administration and there's no indication Hunter would work for a Biden administration. Fair's fair, so shut up.

Good on the Lincoln Project for not backing down.

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I wish it was 2015 like Trump still thinks it is. Shame for his election chances, and the rest of us, that we're in 2020.
This. I know he and his supporters are grumpy that he has an actual record people get to judge him on now, but tough shit. They wanted him to be president, they got it-and as such, they get everything else that comes with it.

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Obama with the best line of the campaign: "Florida man wouldn't even do this stuff".


Way to keep reminding me of why I miss you so much, Obama.
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Old 10-24-2020, 06:54 PM   #965
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So Biden's polling averages are catering in the past 24 hours because old polls are being deleted, not because new, unfavorable ones are coming in? That's good to know, because even I would have found a half a point drop in 24 hours somewhat troubling.
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:01 PM   #966
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So Biden's polling averages are catering in the past 24 hours
where? he's up slightly over yesterday on RCP and basically flat on 538.
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:19 PM   #967
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where? he's up slightly over yesterday on RCP and basically flat on 538.
He dropped from 9.8 to 9.2 in a day on 538? Maybe it was 48 hours then and I'm misremembering.
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Old 10-24-2020, 08:57 PM   #968
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He dropped from 9.8 to 9.2 in a day on 538? Maybe it was 48 hours then and I'm misremembering.
No you are correct. 538 dropped 9.8 to 9.2 this morning. RCP is a little different. I think they pretty much weight all polls in the last 30 days the same. Where 538 diminishes the strength of the polls over time. It was bound to happen. I mean Biden was having +14's and +16's for a little stretch there. Not something that probably was sustainable.

If you look at the averages of the A and B rated pollsters over the last 10 days you get: (I'm leaving out the daily tracking polls (IBD and USC) cause together they pretty much have averaged +9 for the last week or so)

24th - +9
23rd - +9
22nd - +9
21st - +9
20 - +9.3
19th - +11.5
18th - no polls
17th - no polls
16th - 1 poll - +10
15th - 10.25
14th - +9.5

That puts the average over the last 10 days from higher rated polls at +9.6

So the polling has been pretty steady.
And other than NYT and Quinnipiac over the last few days there hasn't been any big national outfits like Fox News, ABC, CNN, etc...

I would guess we see one last round from the big names this coming week, except for NYT, i think they are done.

Also, the polling could get a little weird, with so many early votes, it's not clear how all polling organizations are dealing with that. Are they counting people that have voted already as Likely Voters? or are they trying to just poll people that haven't voted... hard to say.

Either way, the state level polling has pointed to Biden being at about +9 nationally for over a month now. So it is probably about right what we are seeing. But like I noted earlier, the district level contest polling is looking like it would mean a stronger national lead for Biden. So it really means that we will find out in 10 days which way the wind is blowing.
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Old 10-24-2020, 09:05 PM   #969
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https://twitter.com/AdamBassWCCS/sta...33611685818374

My little state that could!!
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Old 10-24-2020, 09:14 PM   #970
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If Biden can stay around +8 by the end of this, that works for me.
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Old 10-24-2020, 09:36 PM   #971
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Plus, between 30-40% of the electorate has voted already.
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Old 10-24-2020, 10:08 PM   #972
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57 million people having voted a week before Halloween is incredible to me. Right now the assumption is that around 150-160 million will vote, which is a big improvement over 2016 and could make all the difference.
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Old 10-24-2020, 10:29 PM   #973
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I think we should expect an increase over 2016 in voter participation but I think we might be disappointed if we expect records to be broken.
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Old 10-24-2020, 10:52 PM   #974
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That actor playing Trump is a bit too skinny to be a realistic portrayal.
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Old 10-24-2020, 11:01 PM   #975
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So we are approaching 57 million early votes, and I just realized that NY starts voting today! So that will be a really big boost in the numbers coming in. But even in NY, voter suppression is real. Check out this video. Every time you think, ok, this is the end of the line... you are incorrect.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/s...67937626107910
Hey, that's us!!!

My sis voted today! I will vote either next Weds, Thurs or Fri (depends on raininess).

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Lol, I missed that one

Last night I watched The Way I See It on Peacock. It was on MSNBC this past week but I had missed it.

It's about Pete Souza, the official WH photographer for Obama. Such a good show, but it made me even more depressed. And I don't say that lightly or disrespectfully, because I live with depression.
I understand. Heard a lot of interviews w him. Very much looking forward to this! His still photography was wonderful!

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OMFG! Bwaahahahaaaa ! Perfect!
"I got a feeling, a feeling deep inside. Oh, yeah. Oho, yeAH!".

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Oh, no, no, no, no, noooooooo, guys. If your dad/father-in-law gets to go after Hunter Biden and you don't have a peep to say about that, then you don't get to whine about people going after you. Especially since, y'know, you're actually working for this administration and there's no indication Hunter would work for a Biden administration. Fair's fair, so shut up.

Good on the Lincoln Project for not backing down.
THIS. and THIS.
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Old 10-25-2020, 01:11 AM   #976
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https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriff...13505551691785
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Old 10-25-2020, 02:29 AM   #977
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But remember, we're supposed to be sympathetic towards these guys when they get sick!
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Old 10-25-2020, 04:04 AM   #978
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He dropped from 9.8 to 9.2 in a day on 538?
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No you are correct. 538 dropped 9.8 to 9.2 this morning.
9.8 to 9.2...i guess we have different definitions of "cratering".
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Old 10-25-2020, 08:37 AM   #979
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NY Times


Several members of Vice President Mike Pence’s inner circle, including at least four members of his staff, have tested positive for the coronavirus in the past few days, people briefed on the matter said, raising new questions about the safety protocols at the White House, where masks are not routinely worn.

Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for Pence, said that the vice president’s chief of staff, Marc Short, had tested positive. A person briefed on the diagnosis said he received it Saturday.

“Vice President Pence and Mrs. Pence both tested negative for COVID-19 today and remain in good health,” O’Malley said, adding, “While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the vice president will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel.”


The statement did not come from the White House medical unit but instead from a press aide. Two people briefed on the matter said that the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, had sought to keep news of the outbreak from becoming public.

A spokeswoman for Meadows did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

A Trump adviser briefed on the outbreak, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Pence adviser Marty Obst also recently tested positive. Obst’s positive result was earlier in the week. His positive test was first reported by Bloomberg News.

A third person briefed on the developments, who also was not authorized to speak publicly, said that three additional Pence staff members had tested positive. O’Malley did not immediately respond to a question about others who had tested positive.

The decision by Pence, who leads the White House Coronavirus Task Force, to continue campaigning is certain to raise new questions about how seriously the White House is taking the risks to its own staff members and the public from the pandemic that has killed more than 224,000 people in the United States. Short has been among those within the White House who have questioned the extensive lockdowns across the country.
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Old 10-25-2020, 08:59 AM   #980
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Ah shit now our local numbers are going to go up again.
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