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Old 10-20-2020, 08:01 AM   #661
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I will not feel confident that Biden is going to win until probably around mid March 2021


Every time I see a tightening poll I start to feel nauseous...like that NC Senate one this morning from ABC.
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Old 10-20-2020, 08:37 AM   #662
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Two weeks...
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Old 10-20-2020, 08:45 AM   #663
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Every time I see a tightening poll I start to feel nauseous...like that NC Senate one this morning from ABC.
For reals.


And before anyone comes in with a "ehrmagad it'z different naw?"

I KNOW.

PTSD doesn't need to make sense.

I am going to be nervous as fuck until the job is done for two main reasons;

1. Never underestimate the stupidity of the America electorate.

2. Never underestimate the Party or Trump's ability and willingness to cheat and/or accept foreign interference.
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Old 10-20-2020, 09:17 AM   #664
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Polls mean nothing to me, and I'm very nervous too. Cult followers, and the fact that Trump will lie cheat and steal for as long as he can before leaving the country to avoid criminal prosecution.

Another good Biden ad

https://twitter.com/i/status/1318342919305166850
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Old 10-20-2020, 09:18 AM   #665
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I think what is more important than the public polls over the next couple of weeks is the behaviour of key republicans. They for sure know what the internals are and are calculating how to best approach the outcome of Nov 3. If you see more and more of them jumping off the ship, then you'll know the writing is most likely on the wall. We've already seen stories about Trump keeping a blacklist of everyone who comes out against him (for retribution purposes) - these people are total opportunists and wouldn't be shitting on a cult leader UNLESS they were fairly certain he's done.
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:23 PM   #666
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
For reals.


And before anyone comes in with a "ehrmagad it'z different naw?"

I KNOW.

PTSD doesn't need to make sense.

I am going to be nervous as fuck until the job is done for two main reasons;

1. Never underestimate the stupidity of the America electorate.

2. Never underestimate the Party or Trump's ability and willingness to cheat and/or accept foreign interference.
Yeah. I'm way too nervous. usually the numbers will give me something to distract me from my utter terror that I feel every day. But today's polling sucks, so I guess its terror for me.

Anyone have any clue as to why the tracking polls - USC and IBD have almost all vanished from 538?? They are they today and IBD 3 days ago and that's it. Very odd.

Also odd, what the hell is with the IBD number today? +3?? This is a tracking poll, so you almost always see slow declines or increases over a week or two. This dropped 5 points in 3 days? Don't know whats up with them.
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:26 PM   #667
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I think what is more important than the public polls over the next couple of weeks is the behaviour of key republicans. They for sure know what the internals are and are calculating how to best approach the outcome of Nov 3. If you see more and more of them jumping off the ship, then you'll know the writing is most likely on the wall. We've already seen stories about Trump keeping a blacklist of everyone who comes out against him (for retribution purposes) - these people are total opportunists and wouldn't be shitting on a cult leader UNLESS they were fairly certain he's done.
Yeaaaa but a lot of these same rats had jumped ship in 2016 as well.

I know in hindsight the signs should have been there, but nobody outside of the most ardent trump fan boys thought he'd win in 2016. Even Trump thought he was going to lose.
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:26 PM   #668
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But today's polling sucks, so I guess its terror for me.
Well, this is an interesting one:
From Rasmussen Reports:
OHIO: Biden 48%, Trump 47%

Yes, it's within the margin of error, but it is Rasmussen stating that Biden is ahead. In Ohio.
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Old 10-20-2020, 01:43 PM   #669
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Well, this is an interesting one:
From Rasmussen Reports:
OHIO: Biden 48%, Trump 47%

Yes, it's within the margin of error, but it is Rasmussen stating that Biden is ahead. In Ohio.
hmmmm... and now A Rasmussen with Biden +3 in PA.

Rasmussen may be doing some last minute adjustments to make sure their pollster rating doesn't get destroyed after the election.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:05 PM   #670
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Was hoping today’s NYT Georgia poll would show some progress for Biden, but it’s a dead heat still. Not surprising of course, but would have liked some movement.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:08 PM   #671
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Yeaaaa but a lot of these same rats had jumped ship in 2016 as well.

I know in hindsight the signs should have been there, but nobody outside of the most ardent trump fan boys thought he'd win in 2016. Even Trump thought he was going to lose.


i agree with this. i do.

but. Hillary had problems.

1. Comey was such a torpedo where she was most vulnerable -- that sunk her as much as anything (keeping in mind, of course, that she still won the PV).

2. there was always a creeping fear that i felt during the primaries when she failed to put Bernie away sooner, even as she handily won debates against him. a lot of Bernie '16 votes were anti-Hillary votes, some due to misogyny, some due to a feeling that folks were told it was "her turn" and she was being forced on us. the fact that Bernie was as much of a factor as he was should have been an indicator that something wasn't quite right with her campaign and her as a candidate.

in contrast, once Biden won SC, he trounced Bernie and set turnout records, the kinds we were promised Bernie would provide. it turns out it wasn't so much that Bernie had wide appeal or was a particularly talented politician or had popular ideas, but that people really hated Hillary Clinton.

people can continue to hate the Democrats and "elites" and liberals or whatever, but it's difficult to see Biden engendering the kind of personalized dislike that Hillary did.

but also, who the fuck knows.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:18 PM   #672
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i agree with this. i do.

but. Hillary had problems.

1. Comey was such a torpedo where she was most vulnerable -- that sunk her as much as anything (keeping in mind, of course, that she still won the PV).

2. there was always a creeping fear that i felt during the primaries when she failed to put Bernie away sooner, even as she handily won debates against him. a lot of Bernie '16 votes were anti-Hillary votes, some due to misogyny, some due to a feeling that folks were told it was "her turn" and she was being forced on us. the fact that Bernie was as much of a factor as he was should have been an indicator that something wasn't quite right with her campaign and her as a candidate.

in contrast, once Biden won SC, he trounced Bernie and set turnout records, the kinds we were promised Bernie would provide. it turns out it wasn't so much that Bernie had wide appeal or was a particularly talented politician or had popular ideas, but that people really hated Hillary Clinton.

people can continue to hate the Democrats and "elites" and liberals or whatever, but it's difficult to see Biden engendering the kind of personalized dislike that Hillary did.

but also, who the fuck knows.
I agree with all of this.

And yet...
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:25 PM   #673
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i agree with this. i do.

but. Hillary had problems.

1. Comey was such a torpedo where she was most vulnerable -- that sunk her as much as anything (keeping in mind, of course, that she still won the PV).

2. there was always a creeping fear that i felt during the primaries when she failed to put Bernie away sooner, even as she handily won debates against him. a lot of Bernie '16 votes were anti-Hillary votes, some due to misogyny, some due to a feeling that folks were told it was "her turn" and she was being forced on us. the fact that Bernie was as much of a factor as he was should have been an indicator that something wasn't quite right with her campaign and her as a candidate.

in contrast, once Biden won SC, he trounced Bernie and set turnout records, the kinds we were promised Bernie would provide. it turns out it wasn't so much that Bernie had wide appeal or was a particularly talented politician or had popular ideas, but that people really hated Hillary Clinton.

people can continue to hate the Democrats and "elites" and liberals or whatever, but it's difficult to see Biden engendering the kind of personalized dislike that Hillary did.

but also, who the fuck knows.
Just to piggy back here a bit. But I also am well aware of Headache's issue with saying how this isn't like 2016... So I'm not taking these numbers as a - hell yeah, Trump is toast!! But there are some really interesting numbers on here. Like Dave W says, the senior number but even more striking is the share of vote that each candidate is getting this time compared to 2016. Biden's share is 7 points higher than Clinton's was in final polling in 2016. Trump's is 1 point higher.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...55816195203074
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:30 PM   #674
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he really should be toast. like, if it were any other candidate, we'd be like: "toast."

i guess it's the perceived fanaticism of the "shoot someone on 5th Avenue" crowd combined with the willingness of the GOP to cheat that makes it feel so unsettling.

i will predict, however, that Trump will not win the popular vote. which should tell us something.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:53 PM   #675
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he really should be toast. like, if it were any other candidate, we'd be like: "toast."

i guess it's the perceived fanaticism of the "shoot someone on 5th Avenue" crowd combined with the willingness of the GOP to cheat that makes it feel so unsettling.

i will predict, however, that Trump will not win the popular vote. which should tell us something.
Well he definitely won't win the popular vote. My hope is that instead of Clinton winning by 2.5% or whatever it was, That Joe wins closer to 7-8% or higher. Which in all conventional wisdom would mean an EC win. But we will see just how far the shitty EC system can be stretched.
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Old 10-20-2020, 03:15 PM   #676
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https://youtu.be/LAUbsx5iUFk


Televangelist Pat Robertson reported on “The 700 Club” today that he had been told by God that President Donald Trump will be reelected … and his reelection will bring about start of the End Times.

Yes he is still around, he's 90. Wasn't the start of the End Times four years ago?
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Old 10-20-2020, 03:21 PM   #677
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Also, a side note. You will hear a LOT about Republican voter registration advantage over the next couple weeks. This is another thing, like early returns, doesn't mean much. Poll pros see no clear relationship with these numbers as indicative of how votes will come in.

I also am really shocked by the total lack of attention given Independent voters/votes so far as we see early numbers come in. Trump won independents by anywhere from 5 to 12 points depending on what exit poll source you look at. That would average out around 9 points. Polls from 2016 had Trump winning independents by around 7, so they were pretty spot on.
Right now Biden is winning independents by a similar amount, probably more by most polling.

So when we see 2 million Dem Votes and 1.5 million Rep votes and 700k Indy votes. The margin that Biden is pulling independent votes by is pretty important to take into account. They are around 34% of the electorate, and about 25% in a place like FL. So I think it's important to keep in mind.
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Old 10-20-2020, 03:35 PM   #678
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in contrast, once Biden won SC, he trounced Bernie and set turnout records, the kinds we were promised Bernie would provide. it turns out it wasn't so much that Bernie had wide appeal or was a particularly talented politician or had popular ideas, but that people really hated Hillary Clinton.

people can continue to hate the Democrats and "elites" and liberals or whatever, but it's difficult to see Biden engendering the kind of personalized dislike that Hillary did.
I totally agree - Hillary Clinton was actually as unique a character as Trump, just in a different way. A woman who dared to have ambition and an opinion and for that, she was unbearable to a large segment of the population.

I think that in 2020, it also helped that progressive Democrats had other options in addition to Bernie - Elizabeth Warren being the most obvious one, but also Julian Castro + Andrew Yang who is a bit of an asterisk policy-wise. That peeled off voters from Bernie who aren't your typical Bernie-bros and don't fit that demographic but ARE genuinely to the left of Biden & co. All of those candidates and Bernie himself coalesced around Biden and I think largely managed to bring their supporters with them, in the name of the greater good.

I am very certain that the popular vote margin will be significantly higher than last time, in favour of Biden. And ultimately I think that will drag him over the line if things become really tight in the end. Let's not forget that all of these states like NC, GA, IA, TX are the cherry on top.
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Old 10-20-2020, 03:48 PM   #679
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Hillary Clinton was generally beloved in the public eye... the tactics the GOP and subsequently Trump used to tarnish her name were carefully calculated over time.

I mean, they’re literally doing the same thing to Biden, who was also generally *liked* if not loved. Except there isn’t anything they can make up about him, so instead they’re going after his children lol
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Old 10-20-2020, 03:50 PM   #680
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President Trump on Tuesday called on Attorney General William Barr to “appoint somebody” to launch an investigation into his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his son Hunter before Election Day, now just two weeks away.

“We’ve got to get the attorney general to act,” Trump said in a telephone interview with “Fox & Friends” when asked whether a special prosecutor should be appointed to probe unverified allegations against the Bidens. “He’s got to act. And he’s got to act fast. He’s got to appoint somebody. This is major corruption, and this has to be known about before the election.”
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