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Old 10-18-2020, 01:32 PM   #601
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One other thing to keep in mind poll wise. There has been a wave of very low quality, non-live caller state polling over the last couple weeks. I'm really hoping for some big name, high-rated, live caller state polls in the next week or so. Fox News where are you?!? Fox had some of the best state polls in 2016 accuracy wise. I would love to see another OH poll from them. Definitely an IA, GA, NC and FL would be great. Guess i would throw in AZ too.

It's just hard to get a handle on state polls when we don't have more trusted polls coming in.
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Old 10-18-2020, 01:34 PM   #602
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ffs
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Old 10-18-2020, 02:03 PM   #603
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Just incredible how this validates Q Anon and their deep, sincere concern for children trapped in the clutches of Satan worshipping cannibals like Tom Hanks and, now we know, Hunter Biden.

And just days before the final debate!

They must be on to something.
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Old 10-18-2020, 02:54 PM   #604
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Interesting district level polling.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...93364491161601

We don't know where this is (come on man) But my guess its a deep red state. Kind of goes along with my theory that the gap in national and state polling is due to larger shifts blue in deep red states that will nonetheless, go red overall.

But, I have seen other district polls in swing states that do give me hope that there is something more going on than even the state polls are letting on.
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Old 10-18-2020, 02:55 PM   #605
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And this guy is the best they’ve been able to field in this election cycle so that tells you a lot.
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Old 10-18-2020, 03:33 PM   #606
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Violence is a given at this point.

Imagine the outrage when a President Biden announces a national mask mandate.

Or if we’re into our 5th surge or the first wave and the data / science shows mass lockdowns are needed.

Even without any of that, 40% of the country will believe Biden is running a child trafficking from the White House
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Old 10-18-2020, 05:07 PM   #607
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So the Gulliani laptop thing is falling apart faster than the border wall after a heavy rain.

BREAKING: Hunter Biden was living in California when Rudy Giuliani claims he dropped his laptop off for repair in Delaware. Now Giuliani says he never saw the laptop, but just copies of a hard drive.

Looking at metadata it seems that emails were created after the laptop was supposedly dropped off.

This on top of the confusing and laughable story from the shop owner.

And of course on top of Intelligence Agencies saying that li'l Rudy has been under surveillance for being worked as a Russian asset for the last year or so.
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Old 10-18-2020, 05:53 PM   #608
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I would have expected more from the Russians than engaging an old drunk.
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Old 10-18-2020, 06:10 PM   #609
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Their unifying theory is that Trump supporters are all terrified of going on record as voting for him given that the leftist media is in cahoots with Antifa and being honest with a pollster exposes them to violence. And it’s definitely not just bots - it’s all over right leaning blogs.
I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis. Yeah, the Trump campaign seems to be stuck in 2016, desperately wanting to go back to the days when Trump didn't have a record of his time in office for people to judge him by. There's also the fact that they're trying to pull this sort of bizarre moral high ground/"their side is just as bad, if not worse!" thing, but it's awfully hard to make that stick when your party is batshit insane and getting crueler and more corrupt by the day.
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Old 10-18-2020, 06:14 PM   #610
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US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis. Yeah, the Trump campaign seems to be stuck in 2016, desperately wanting to go back to the days when Trump didn't have a record of his time in office for people to judge him by. There's also the fact that they're trying to pull this sort of bizarre moral high ground/"their side is just as bad, if not worse!" thing, but it's awfully hard to make that stick when your party is batshit insane and getting crueler and more corrupt by the day.


I think there are a lot less proud Trump voters than the Internet makes seem, but I definitely believe in what Id call the “silent minority” (ya know, because the majority never supported him). The silent minority consists of pretty much anyone who claims to be “undecided” but clearly voted for him in 2016 and doesn’t talk about it.

A lot of our parents.
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Old 10-18-2020, 06:34 PM   #611
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I agree with your parents statement. I can see this, but I also think that our parents would tell a pollster they are voting Trump, even if they may not tell their neighbor or friends.
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Old 10-18-2020, 08:29 PM   #612
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Interesting NC voting info on what has come in so far.

Obviously we have to take into consideration the early vote being heavy Dem. But look at that number for Black voters. 1% for Republican!

Also, you can probably split the "unaffiliated" number and split it about 60/40 to Biden.

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/st...46783393935360

Also note the "all other parties" returns. This shows what I was predicting. Seeing third parties with 3,4,5% on polls just wasn't gonna happen.

If you split the unaffiliated number 60/40 to Biden - The returns for the state would be 63-36 Biden-Trump. If you split it 55/45 it would be 61.5-38.5 Biden - Trump.
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Old 10-18-2020, 08:36 PM   #613
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I wouldn’t read too much into early voting. All I can think is republicans are more likely to show up on Election Day in anti-mask fashion whereas democrats are more likely to heed public health warnings and vote alternatively.
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Old 10-18-2020, 09:40 PM   #614
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It does make me wonder, with COVID likely getting worse in the next two weeks, if more people won’t be afraid to go to the polls on Election Day. I know hard core Trump supporters won’t go, but he cannot get elected with hard core supporters only - and Dems will have banked in a lot of their votes at that point.
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:07 PM   #615
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So the Gulliani laptop thing is falling apart faster than the border wall after a heavy rain.


Btw have you seen the 2 part map of how much Wall has actually been built?
*First you see a map of ?most of the Mexico/USA border.
*Then the second one zooms in on a (?few) Texas County(ies) Southern/Mexican Border. You see a heavier darkened line drawn along this border about 1/15th the size of the border zoom in that you are looking at!
Pathetic!!!!!

I'm very glad no more $$$ and worker power was put into this ridiculousness in the first place. It's just "funny" for all his bluster in -this- case, anyway!
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I would have expected more from the Russians than engaging an old drunk.

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Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel View Post
I've always found the whole "afraid to go on record as supporting Trump"/"silent majority" thing questionable simply because I've yet to come across a single Trump supporter that's been silent or afraid to voice their support for the guy. They've always been VERY loud and gleefully obnoxious in proclaiming how much they like him-look at all the hats and shirts and whatnot they proudly wear and display and so on.

Maybe there are some quieter supporters out there, but I'm betting they're few and far between.

I liked womanfish's analysis.
Agreeing with you and wf.

Yahoo just had an article saying that more non-college white men (seems like a bunch might be 30s - 40s) are recently fed up with in the past couple of weeks to finally turn away.

Me? I'm alternating between quietly hopeful and various levels of nervousness. Sometimes both at once.

+s] Higher pollings #s, less Trump signs in previous high sinage areas + more Biden signs, serious lawyering, cyber security continuing to be tuned, high $$$ still in for H/B, Senate & House candidates. High intensely dedicated turn out.

-s] Russia/votes hacking. Militias/white terrorists. It's 2020.

So that's imho.

Oh, yeah, the violence. Probably going to be some.
I just sure hope it won't be massive, at the least.
I've also heard of liberals who own guns that might carry in legal States to nearby the polls to hopefully just be a visual detterant to any ws, neo-nazis types.
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:33 PM   #616
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Jesus fucking Christ. These people are seriously mentally ill.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealWayne...91077266124800
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:34 PM   #617
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I finally got my absentee ballot!

A chill went through me - this election, this cv19!
I've never needed/wanted to vote by mail. I've never voted early. It's always been pull the lever, now fill in the little ovals and scan on Election Day.

I have to look the ballot over w a fine tooth comb. Read the on-line NYS how to fill.out the ballot guidelines.
Then I'll probably take it to our Bronx Board of Elections drop box. Haven't quite made up my mind on that - here it's seems you can tell your poll worker that you've changed your mind and want to either vote in person, or they'll have a box for the absentee ballots. My area is mostly Democrats, maybe a few Independents etc.

I might split my vote between the Democratic Party, and the Working Families Party - a more progressive party, that I think I signed the petition to get their line on the (then) machine ballots, oh, ? 28 yrs ago or so. Will look up.
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:43 PM   #618
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Jesus fucking Christ. These people are seriously mentally ill.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealWayne...91077266124800

Welp, we know some RW'rs will try anything to try and ruin Biden's chances.
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Old 10-18-2020, 11:32 PM   #619
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I wouldn’t read too much into early voting. All I can think is republicans are more likely to show up on Election Day in anti-mask fashion whereas democrats are more likely to heed public health warnings and vote alternatively.
Yeah, the more you look at the early numbers the more confusing it can be. One thing seems for sure and like I wrote in my long winded post before, I think the hardcore Trumpers were/are voting in person early voting.
The regular Trump voters will probably split with some early voting and some Election Day, and old school gop are going to go more on Election Day.

Also, early voting numbers can be hard to glean anything from nationally since some states don’t have party affiliation listed. Biggest takeaway is that we will have very high turnout and that could make a big difference, especially in the closest states like NC, FL, IA, OH, AZ GA and TX. Damn that’s a lot of close states.
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Old 10-18-2020, 11:38 PM   #620
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GA I think is genuinely in play but I’m not holding my breath for Texas lol. I think the black vote in GA might fine well show up in historic numbers there after what happened in 2018.
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