US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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LuckyNumber7 said:
They’re in way too deep. There’s no hope for the senate. Their only hope for retaining the senate is that they got it right and the polls are not telling the whole picture.

There are zero things they can do to reverse time less than one month from the election.
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Yeah. The GOP is Trump's party, there is no way out. If they lost the hardcore Trump supporters, they'd surely lose Senate seats in places like Iowa, Montana, Georgia and South Carolina. Not to mention House and down ballot races.
 
Moonlit_Angel said:
Problem for the GOP is that at some point, they may not have a choice. If Trump deteriorates further, that may force their hand to make a move.



But of course, if they were capable of being aware of and considering such possibilities, we probably wouldn't be in this mess right now, so...







...wow.
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Trump deteriorating after he won would put Pence in charge and would be a slow demise to Trumpism 1-2 elections afterwards.

I think a decisive Trump loss now can defeat Trumpism once and for all, and it’s imperative that he doesn’t win or die (I think a Covid death would almost assuredly get Pence the victory because there would be soooo many more people willing to vote for what they perceive on short notice as a behaved Trump).
 
I haven’t seen anyone mention Biden’s Gettysburg speech. Gotta say. Just amazing. Groundbreaking in ways. No other candidate including Obama said the things he said about race and justice in America. And not the pie in the sky America that is bellowed about, but facing it in the reality of what America is. Powerful stuff.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Fully speculative here, but the lack of hearing much of anything from Chris Christie makes me think he’s not okay.
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Wasn’t it him who said some people will just have to die?? Hard to feel anything for such a guy who says that yet he can walk into any hospital and get the best treatment possible that any of us would surely not be able to get! It wouldn’t really make me feel anything knowing that he is not ok!
 
Wonder when Trump will actually speak live versus recordings ?
 
Probably going to be another big polling day. Mostly some bigger name state polls coming out.

So far

Emerson - PA Biden +4
Civiqs - TX - Tied
IA - Biden +1

Stay Tuned for NV, OH, and WI later today
 
He's such an entertainer. Just not a funny one:

Enter Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer, who decided to spend Monday night coughing through an interview with Martha MacCallum on Fox News, announcing that the science on Covid is in fact baloney, and with it the science on mask-wearing, too.

That Giuliani is anti-mask is not surprising. He did, after all, spend the last week indoors with the president, sans mask, as he helped Trump prep for the presidential debates. But you’d think Giuliani might soften his stance on masks, considering that since he and Chris Christie were trapped in a room with the president , that Christie has since tested positive for the virus, and that he and the president were both hospitalized.

Giuliani has, at least, taken heed and gotten a test – he confirmed on MacCallum’s show that he is awaiting the results of a second coronavirus test. But the fact the interview took place just two hours after his test (and without the results yet in) did not stop Giuliani gloating that he had not yet contracted Covid-19 and dishing out advice to Fox’s viewership.

“Just to play devil’s advocate, [Biden] would probably say, ‘I haven’t gotten Covid and the president did, and he’s not a big fan of wearing masks’,” pointed out MacCallum, before being interjected by Giuliani.

“And I haven’t either, and I don’t wear masks as much as probably I should … What they claim is science is nonsense,” said Giuliani.

Moments later, Giuliani again began coughing and hacking, prompting MacCallum to close with well wishes.

“Mayor Giuliani, thank you so much for your time, and we look forward to having you back. And I hope that cough is not anything bad while you are waiting for your test to come back,” she said, adding: “We hope you will be healthy and well.”

“I hope so, too,” said Giuliani. “I will let you know tomorrow.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...wyer-rudy-giuliani-masks-coronavirus-fox-news
 
Ted Cruz (a) has a sad and (b) is starting to accept reality. What about the rest?

I'm worried about the election. I think it's really volatile. I think it could go either way. I think we could have a fantastic election, the president could win by a big margin and we could win both houses of Congress, but I also think it could be devastating.

And I think we either win the presidency and win the Senate, or we lose the presidency and lose the Senate, and I very much hope it's the former and not the latter. And it depends on turnout. It depends on who shows up.
...

The left is showing up. They're pissed off. They hate Trump. We've got to make sure everyone else shows up.
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A/B poll Data Orbital - AZ - Biden +5

And yeah, that Rasmussen poll... yikes. 3 points higher than YouGov

For Rasmussen, that up from Biden +8 in late September and Biden +1 in mid September...
 
NYT/Sienna

NV - Biden +6
OH - Biden +1

So sorta right in line with the current averages. Would have like to have seen a little better.

Marquette Law
WI - Biden +5

Again, a bit disappointing. A bit below the avg on this one.

Sorry, one more. National poll from Qriously - Biden +13 (up 3 from their last one in late Sept)
 
womanfish said:
NYT/Sienna

NV - Biden +6
OH - Biden +1

So sorta right in line with the current averages. Would have like to have seen a little better.
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Honestly I expected Biden to be at least -3/4 in OH...
 
anitram said:
Honestly I expected Biden to be at least -3/4 in OH...
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True. I'm happy to see the +1. In the back of my mind, i thought maybe with this shift in national polling there would be a crazy surprise. But this is OH. I'll take it!!
 
It's always the averages...

Quinnipiac now with Biden +13 in PA, +11 in FL (!!) and +5 in IA. Probably an outlier, but offsets the more modest results earlier today.
 
gump said:
It's always the averages...

Quinnipiac now with Biden +13 in PA, +11 in FL (!!) and +5 in IA. Probably an outlier, but offsets the more modest results earlier today.
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wow, they haven't hit 538 yet. Those are huge numbers. But Q definitely has had a Biden lean. So maybe shave off a few points. But that would still be +10 in PA, +8 in FL and +2 in IA. Still great numbers. And would fall in line with some other polls we've seen the last few days. There have been a couple FL +5's and a +6, a +11 in PA and a +7 , and a +1,2 and 3 in IA over the past week.
 
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