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Old 10-16-2020, 08:46 AM   #541
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I actually genuinely believe that Christie had a long time to think in the ICU and probably pulled a full on Charlie Crist and said “I can’t do this anymore” and decided to be honest.

That doesn’t excuse him and he’s not forgiven, but I don’t think his comments are a political pivot.
Probably wasn't allowed any chocolate in ICU and therefore realized what a gave error not wearing a mask was.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:55 AM   #542
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https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/13...028293120?s=21

President of red America
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:19 AM   #543
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...04455632873062

i give up
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:46 AM   #544
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crap, was it taken down?? what was it?
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:53 AM   #545
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crap, was it taken down?? what was it?
Didn't see it but my suspicion is maybe related to this:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:54 AM   #546
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:58 AM   #547
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Big T

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Old 10-16-2020, 10:33 AM   #548
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I actually genuinely believe that Christie had a long time to think in the ICU and probably pulled a full on Charlie Crist and said “I can’t do this anymore” and decided to be honest.

That doesn’t excuse him and he’s not forgiven, but I don’t think his comments are a political pivot.


I’m sure there’s some sincerity in there, although I’m certain he knew better than he’s letting on.

But he also knows that he can turn that sincerity into a career pivot.
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Old 10-16-2020, 12:33 PM   #549
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You're so handsome when you smile? I think that woman is suffering from some pandemic related loneliness. And needs new glasses.
Her ears are OK though. Looks like she's voting for Biden as she doesn't like what Trump is saying.
https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/p...biden-11713025
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Overall, Dale said, Trump hasn't earned her vote.

"He's very combative and he doesn't believe in science, and that's a big concern to me," she said. "And by his own words, he knows more than the [military] generals, knows more than the public-health experts, knows more than anybody. I believe Joe Biden will listen to the experts."

But she really meant it when she complimented the president's grin.

"I believe the man has a very nice smile; there was no reason not to comment on it," she said. "Smiles are important to me. I like nice teeth."
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Old 10-16-2020, 01:02 PM   #550
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Her ears are OK though. Looks like she's voting for Biden as she doesn't like what Trump is saying.
https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/p...biden-11713025
I sense BS. She's voting Trump but doesn't want the public backlash.
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Old 10-16-2020, 01:25 PM   #551
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Some crappy-ish polls today, nothing really high quality but the IBD/TIPP one that has Biden up only 5-6 nationally raised my blood pressure.

Also, WHY do pollsters bother polling places like Hawaii to tell us that a candidate is up 33 points? What a waste of time.
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Old 10-16-2020, 01:53 PM   #552
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Some crappy-ish polls today, nothing really high quality but the IBD/TIPP one that has Biden up only 5-6 nationally raised my blood pressure.

Also, WHY do pollsters bother polling places like Hawaii to tell us that a candidate is up 33 points? What a waste of time.
Ugh. I hate this. Do we seriously need polls of MD, NJ, HI, IN, etc... That aside. We had a TON of polls yesterday, so we may be a little lighter today. Biden's average for the day matched the average of Biden +10.5. That's a good thing. The USC tracking poll ticked down one point and IBD/TIPP dropped by about 2. IBD has been a bit right leaning. They are touting that they should get credit for predicting Trump's victory in 2016. But as Nate Silver points out, they had their final national poll at Trump +2, and Clinton won the national vote by 2.5. But lets just say their house effect is probably around 2 points (maybe a little more). That would put them around USC's numbers that we are seeing. They had a mid Sept poll with Biden +6, and an Oct. 1st with Biden +3. This is when A rated pollsters were closer to +8 to +11. Now we have them at +6 today, and yesterday they were at +8, but we had three A rated polls at +11, +11, and +10.

This may just be a blip in their trend and they will be back to 8 or 9 tomorrow.
Like I said yesterday, I figured the national numbers would drift down a bit over the next week or two. I'm hoping that means drifting down to +9ish and not lower. Biden has been riding a high here ever since the debates and Covid diagnosis. So I figured it would be a bit of a short-term bump. We may be coming off the Biden upswing from the past few weeks, and will see a little dip, possibly seeing it swing back up in week - post town halls

I'm looking for more GA, PA, TX, and AZ polls. OH and IA wouldn't hurt either.
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Old 10-16-2020, 02:24 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
Some crappy-ish polls today, nothing really high quality but the IBD/TIPP one that has Biden up only 5-6 nationally raised my blood pressure.

Also, WHY do pollsters bother polling places like Hawaii to tell us that a candidate is up 33 points? What a waste of time.
looking at the big picture, that poll's probably just an outlier.

the main reason they poll in those foregone-conclusion states is to give university math/stats majors some experience. and they're usually paid for by some local news affiliate so that they can fill 5 minutes of the evening news talking about the results.
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Old 10-16-2020, 03:31 PM   #554
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/media...ump/index.html

Poor baby lost the ratings contest too.

But what do the women of Bumble think?
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Old 10-16-2020, 03:33 PM   #555
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I didn't like that Trafalgar poll showing Trump up in Michigan, even though I know they lean right. It's still disconcerting to see that.
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Old 10-16-2020, 04:03 PM   #556
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I didn't like that Trafalgar poll showing Trump up in Michigan, even though I know they lean right. It's still disconcerting to see that.
Trafalgar pretty much needs to be ignored. Or if you are going to pay attention, add 6 points towards the left. The only redeeming quality about them (and Rasmussen) is that it evens out the outlier polls that go high the other way. Better to have a real spread of polls averaged, because quality pollsters usually have an outlier now and then (ie. Quinnipiac with GA at Biden +7), which means they are staying true to their standards and they aren't following the lead of the others. But Trafalgar is always an outlier to the right.

If you take the A and B rated pollsters polls of MI over the last 5 days, it averages Biden +7.8. Which is exactly where the current avg in MI stands on 538.

And if it eases your mind at all, HarrisX just had a Biden +11 in MI today, which for HarrisX is kinda wild. So the outliers are good to keep in the mix for a better overall picture of things, and to keep the averages in check.
For example, Pretty much every CNN national poll has been an outlier this time around. They had Biden +14, then 4, then up 16, and so on. But if you take the average of the 5 polls they've done, it comes out to about Biden +9.
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Old 10-16-2020, 04:39 PM   #557
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US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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Well fake teeth...
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Old 10-16-2020, 04:49 PM   #558
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Trafalgar pretty much needs to be ignored. Or if you are going to pay attention, add 6 points towards the left. The only redeeming quality about them (and Rasmussen) is that it evens out the outlier polls that go high the other way. Better to have a real spread of polls averaged, because quality pollsters usually have an outlier now and then (ie. Quinnipiac with GA at Biden +7), which means they are staying true to their standards and they aren't following the lead of the others. But Trafalgar is always an outlier to the right.

If you take the A and B rated pollsters polls of MI over the last 5 days, it averages Biden +7.8. Which is exactly where the current avg in MI stands on 538.

And if it eases your mind at all, HarrisX just had a Biden +11 in MI today, which for HarrisX is kinda wild. So the outliers are good to keep in the mix for a better overall picture of things, and to keep the averages in check.
For example, Pretty much every CNN national poll has been an outlier this time around. They had Biden +14, then 4, then up 16, and so on. But if you take the average of the 5 polls they've done, it comes out to about Biden +9.
Well that works for me.

I do find it hilarious how they essentially got extremely lucky in 2016 and now everyone on the right thinks they are the only poll that matters.
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Old 10-16-2020, 05:51 PM   #559
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I sense BS. She's voting Trump but doesn't want the public backlash.
Or maybe she just wanted her 15 minutes of fame, like the Trump plant bobblehead behind him.

Glaring white fake teeth against that orange backdrop are nothing but creepy to me.
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Old 10-16-2020, 05:57 PM   #560
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/media...ump/index.html

Poor baby lost the ratings contest too.
Thank goodness. I'm hoping that's a sign that most people aren't even bothering to tune in to Trump for the amusement/trainwreck factor anymore.
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