US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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So Ratcliffe comes out and accuses Iran of doing election meddling, and it's everything that Trump is doing every day. Plus he said it was to "damage Trump."

12 more fucking days.
 
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Polls are tightening up a little now.

But if I'm not supposed to get excited over a huge lead, I'm not going to sweat a closer contest either.

42 million votes have already been cast. Let's keep the momentum going.
 
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Ok, I've had a few beers, so it's time a for a good polling recap. Yesterday was a crap polling day for Biden. Today was a much better day for state polling for him, which we haven't seen in a while. Pennsylvania is a bit of a standout here today, and sort of FL.

I'll try to stick to the bigger names.

Iowa
Emerson - Tie -(I would add about 2 points to this one. Emerson has been really low for Biden all cycle)
NYT/Sienna - Biden +3
Monmouth - Biden +3 (high turnout) Biden +5 (low turnout) Yes, this seems odd. But my thought is that Dems are fired up to turn out and get rid of Trump, and a higher turnout means that Reps, who may not be as motivated, would stay home in a low turnout but show up in a high turnout.

Arizona
Ipsos - Biden +3 (pretty much the average of what he got yesterday here)

TX
Quinnipiac - Tied (take off 2 points for house effect)

PA
Quinnipiac - Biden +8 (take off 2 points for house effect)
Suffolk - Biden +6
CNN - Biden +10

FL
Ipsos - Biden +4
CNN - Biden +4
Civiqs -Biden +4

And I asked for Fox News state polls a couple days ago. Well, we got em today. And... it made clear that my theory of the "universal swing" may be bearing out, especially looking at the polling overall.

So, Fox News state polls today

WI - Biden +5
PA - Biden +5
MI -Biden +12 :hyper::up::up::up::applaud:
OH - Trump +3 :angry::angry:

So the universal swing. Clinton was up 3 points on election day nationally in 2016. As I suspected, Biden is starting to move down a bit in national polls. Down form 10.7 high to 9.9 today. Most likely he will continue to slide a bit. My gut says to about +9 by election day.

So compared to Hillary, a universal swing of 6 points (+3 to +9) nationally. If we put that universal swing to the swing states, we get

WI - +6
PA - +6
MI - +6
FL - +4.8
AZ - +3.5
NC - +2.4
OH - Trump +1
GA - Trump +1
TX - Trump +3
IA - Trump +3.3

So the universal swing looks pretty close to the polling. Yes, WI is a bit above the +6 for now. The bolded exceptions are:

FL - Biden may win, but I don't think by 4.8. I would say closer to 1-2%
MI - A powerhouse for Biden this year. I would say he takes it by >8%
Iowa - A pleasant shift in polling as of late. I think Biden could pull it out, but that would be a greater than 9 point swing. Still advantage Trump, but I think it will be about a 1 point race here.

Sadly, it looks like OH is just not gonna make it. TX, even with the record turnout is gonna be a real longshot. Biden would have to do a >10 point swing here. I think the polling is right and the swing will stay about 6 or 7 - leaving Joe behind by about 3 (possibly 1 or 2 with the record turnout)

I still believe in GA. While the universal swing says he will be short a point. I think that he will take it by 1 point.

Right now the focus has to be on NC, FL and AZ. Trump cannot win if he loses any one of these three states. And all 3 will be some of the first to report on election night.

I think Obama needs to take his bullhorn and just travel back and forth between PA and NC right now.
 
I think it would be fun to share our "pessimistic" electoral map, and our "optimistic" or very highest hopes electoral map.

Here is my pessimistic-

lWPZ4






Here is my very highest hopes map:

Qp1rP






And here is my best guess as to what will most likely happen -

Yj4eb
 
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womanfish said:
I think it would be fun to share our "pessimistic" electoral map, and our "optimistic" or very highest hopes electoral map.

Here is my pessimistic-

lWPZ4






Here is my very highest hopes map:

Qp1rP






And here is my best guess as to what will most likely happen -

Yj4eb
Click to expand...



My best guess would be yours minus Georgia. Just don’t think he’s gonna pull that one out. I hope you’re right though.
 
You can tell that they're failing by the fact that they keep switching points of attack every 5 minutes. With Hillary, in addition to the 30-year-smears, they pounded that e-mail server + Benghazi and those were very easy for the electorate to understand, particularly their electorate.

Just go ahead and try to explain Burisma/Hunter Biden to an average person and they'll stare at you blankly. It's a totally convoluted story and every attack that has come after it, that is still in some way related to it has been the same. Why do you think they pivoted to Hunter Biden being a pedophile? Because this new laptop story was initially ALL about Burisma, but the e-mails that Rudy Shirttuck provided were so convoluted and confusing that they had no choice but to invent something super easy for your QAnon crowd to follow.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Mr. President my first question is for you. Your consigliere, who you send as an envoy around the world to dig up dirt on your political opponents, is so fucking stupid that a comedian hoodwinked him into taking his pants off with what he thought was a 15 year old girl. Your comment, sir?
Click to expand...

My what? Oh, Rudy? Rudy, nice guy, known him for a long time, nice guy, good guy, some people say he's a bit confused, not as much as Sleepy Joe who took, believe me, he took a LOT of uppers and who knows what else to be standing over there without a mask - hey Joe where's your giant gay mask, the people have a right to know if their President is a pussy - I liked Rudy, he did great things when the Palestinians from New Jersey attacked us on 9/11 and made my building the tallest - tallest in New York, I talk to him still sometimes, he calls me, we have beautiful phone calls, perfect phone calls, but he doesn't work for me, never did, you gotta feel bad for the guy, with this lying media, especially the goddamn bastards at CNN, it's terrible what's happened to him, it's all witch hunts now, I guess it's Halloween, you know that will have all this fake media in a frenzy, but no, I don't know what Rudy's been doing, no idea, haven't heard about him, wish him well though, good guy, some people say.
 
anitram said:
You can tell that they're failing by the fact that they keep switching points of attack every 5 minutes. With Hillary, in addition to the 30-year-smears, they pounded that e-mail server + Benghazi and those were very easy for the electorate to understand, particularly their electorate.

Just go ahead and try to explain Burisma/Hunter Biden to an average person and they'll stare at you blankly. It's a totally convoluted story and every attack that has come after it, that is still in some way related to it has been the same. Why do you think they pivoted to Hunter Biden being a pedophile? Because this new laptop story was initially ALL about Burisma, but the e-mails that Rudy Shirttuck provided were so convoluted and confusing that they had no choice but to invent something super easy for your QAnon crowd to follow.
Click to expand...



That’s why they are trying to distill the Hunter story into two visceral words: rape children.

It’s unimaginably disgusting that they are trying to use something as unimaginably awful as that to turn an election.

And that’s also, not coincidentally, the bottom line of Q Anon.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
They're now trying to get Biden on using Amtrak, because they literally have nothing to else.
Click to expand...

Some guy on Twitter named John Cordillo, he used to be NYPD and now he's on tv...I've never heard of him.

He tweeted this picture of Joe and Hunter Biden and said is this an appropriate father son interaction.

Ek5N4wjWkAYA7x7.jpeg


I think it's beautiful, and I would speculate he wants photos like that because he has lost his other son. And the ultimate irony, considering Trump's completely inappropriate comments about Ivanka and his handsy ways. And inappropriate photos.


Talk about desperation, these people are sick.
 
Irvine511 said:
That’s why they are trying to distill the Hunter story into two visceral words: rape children.

It’s unimaginably disgusting that they are trying to use something as unimaginably awful as that to turn an election.

And that’s also, not coincidentally, the bottom line of Q Anon.
Click to expand...

Aren't they claiming that Hunter has child pornography on the laptop?
 
Some good state polling numbers out from Morning Consult this morning with one exception.

WI - Biden +12
TX - Biden +1
PA - Biden +9
NC - Biden +3
MI - Biden +8
FL - Biden +7

AZ - Trump+1

Just another gripe about RealClearPolitics - They seem to use Morning Consult for presidential approval, but they don't use them for state polling. It's unfortunate that this is still a go to place for people to look at polling averages, cause it's pretty shitty. 538 and Economist are really the only two comprehensive sites to get a full picture.
 
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Hannity actually had a camera and reporter outside Biden's house last night. Hannity said that Biden has been hiding in his house on vacation for five days. Went on to conclude that this is obviously the Biden campaign trying to hide Joe's cognitive issues.
 
anitram said:
Incredible. :lol:

In case you thought tonight's debate might be watchable without considerable volumes of alcohol:

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/stat...-final-debate-so-here-s-what-you-need-to-know

So there you go. It's going to be a debate where the questions are irrelevant - Biden will answer them, while Grandpa COVID will talk about Hunter Biden's pedophilia. I'm sure his numbers will skyrocket!!
Click to expand...

Yeah, going after Biden's kids last time worked out great for him. Let's do it again! At least we can be happy that Trump's advisors are as stupid as he is.
 
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