US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

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Are those numbers strong enough to make up for votes that will be lost to GOP cheating?

The short answer is yes. But nothing is certain. At this point I think the only thing that could derail these numbers is if Russia or others gained direct access to voting machine software and changed votes. Which of course can't be ruled out, but is still a remote possibility.

So that said. I am one that is starting to think that the numbers we are seeing, nationally vs. state polls, early voting participation, voting enthusiasm, and the overall feeling in the air right now (i know - very scientific lol) is pointing to Biden actually outperforming state polling, and probably almost hitting or slightly underperforming the current national numbers.
One explanation is that state polling was off in 2016, but national polling was pretty spot on in the end. State pollsters may be overcompensating a bit, as to not make the same mistakes as last time. But looking at it overall, the standard shift towards Biden, that I talked about probably a month ago was about 6 points. Now, it's looking more like 7 points. That was looking at midwest swing states, an acknowledging that the swing was slightly less in places like NC and FL.
So while there is this gap in state vs. national numbers, If you were to take Hillary's national vote win (almost 3%) and add that 7 point shift to Biden, you get -- just about 10%.
And his national average at the moment is +10.5. So it makes some sense.

Especially if you account for the fact that some of the larger shifts are in deep red states. I know here in TN, where Trump won by like 26 points in 2016, is now probably going to be closer to 12-14 points. Kansas, Trump won by 20 points, and now is standing around 7-8 points ahead. Alaska, Trump won by 15 points, and right now is at around +5. Same story in South Carolina, Trump +15 in 2016, now Trump +5 or 6.

So national numbers I think are reflecting bluer states getting bluer, and deep red states showing 10-12 point shifts, while swing states are swinging closer to 5-7 points.

So where does that leave us. We hope that no true vote manipulation happens. We realize that long voting lines and broken machines, and challenges on what dates mail ins can be received or counted are just par for the course.
We also realize that the whole energy of this election is different. It is a different world on social media this time around. 2016 was pure Clinton hate and left/Dem infighting. I mean, it was really bad. No one was overly enthusiastic, everyone was throwing around "lesser of two evils" Clintons fav/unfavs were in the toilet. In fact Clinton's number for Honesty and trustworthiness were worse than Trump's. It was a shit show. Clinton didn't do the work in the midwest, Trump was a new candidate that was talking about shaking up Washington after a two term Dem president, people were looking for something different, and Clinton was the farthest thing from it, The Comey letter came out a little over a week from election day. It was just a trainwreck waiting to happen.
This time it is opposite. People are looking for normalcy and stability and going back to something they knew was safe and competent. Trump has to run on his record, and his number with women, college educated, white voters, seniors, and even military are off a cliff.

The enthusiasm to remove him is SO strong. People are angry, they are tired, they are sick of his shit. And this whole shoving a nominee through, instead of doing Covid relief is only going to make it worse.

Right now over 25% of all registered voters in Kansas have voted. And we are 3 weeks out. That is insane. First day early voting has been double or triple of anything we've seen in the past. I think there is more of chance of a landslide victory for Biden than a small win.

I'll post later about election night and what we can make of the results we see coming in.
 
The short answer is yes. But nothing is certain. At this point I think the only thing that could derail these numbers is if Russia or others gained direct access to voting machine software and changed votes. Which of course can't be ruled out, but is still a remote possibility.

So that said. I am one that is starting to think that the numbers we are seeing, nationally vs. state polls, early voting participation, voting enthusiasm, and the overall feeling in the air right now (i know - very scientific lol) is pointing to Biden actually outperforming state polling, and probably almost hitting or slightly underperforming the current national numbers.
One explanation is that state polling was off in 2016, but national polling was pretty spot on in the end. State pollsters may be overcompensating a bit, as to not make the same mistakes as last time. But looking at it overall, the standard shift towards Biden, that I talked about probably a month ago was about 6 points. Now, it's looking more like 7 points. That was looking at midwest swing states, an acknowledging that the swing was slightly less in places like NC and FL.
So while there is this gap in state vs. national numbers, If you were to take Hillary's national vote win (almost 3%) and add that 7 point shift to Biden, you get -- just about 10%.
And his national average at the moment is +10.5. So it makes some sense.

Especially if you account for the fact that some of the larger shifts are in deep red states. I know here in TN, where Trump won by like 26 points in 2016, is now probably going to be closer to 12-14 points. Kansas, Trump won by 20 points, and now is standing around 7-8 points ahead. Alaska, Trump won by 15 points, and right now is at around +5. Same story in South Carolina, Trump +15 in 2016, now Trump +5 or 6.

So national numbers I think are reflecting bluer states getting bluer, and deep red states showing 10-12 point shifts, while swing states are swinging closer to 5-7 points.

So where does that leave us. We hope that no true vote manipulation happens. We realize that long voting lines and broken machines, and challenges on what dates mail ins can be received or counted are just par for the course.
We also realize that the whole energy of this election is different. It is a different world on social media this time around. 2016 was pure Clinton hate and left/Dem infighting. I mean, it was really bad. No one was overly enthusiastic, everyone was throwing around "lesser of two evils" Clintons fav/unfavs were in the toilet. In fact Clinton's number for Honesty and trustworthiness were worse than Trump's. It was a shit show. Clinton didn't do the work in the midwest, Trump was a new candidate that was talking about shaking up Washington after a two term Dem president, people were looking for something different, and Clinton was the farthest thing from it, The Comey letter came out a little over a week from election day. It was just a trainwreck waiting to happen.
This time it is opposite. People are looking for normalcy and stability and going back to something they knew was safe and competent. Trump has to run on his record, and his number with women, college educated, white voters, seniors, and even military are off a cliff.

The enthusiasm to remove him is SO strong. People are angry, they are tired, they are sick of his shit. And this whole shoving a nominee through, instead of doing Covid relief is only going to make it worse.

Right now over 25% of all registered voters in Kansas have voted. And we are 3 weeks out. That is insane. First day early voting has been double or triple of anything we've seen in the past. I think there is more of chance of a landslide victory for Biden than a small win.

I'll post later about election night and what we can make of the results we see coming in.


thanks! that's very a very thorough breakdown. I look forward to your post about election night. The Times and the Atlantic had alarming pieces about the time between election night and inauguration, but they were predicated on a close election. I hope that you're assessment is correct.
 
People don't want to wait to get Trump out the door...

Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Virginia have already received more early ballots than they did in the entire 2016 presidential election.
 
Some interesting state polls

EPIC - MI Biden +9
Susquehanna - NC - Biden +2
St Pete Polls - FL - Biden +2
SurveyUSA - GA - Biden +2
Montana State U. - Montana - Trump +7 (Trump +20 in 2016)
NYT/Sienna - NC - Biden +4
Quinnipiac - OH - Biden +1
Quinnipiac - GA - Biden +7 :ohmy:
 
So that said. I am one that is starting to think that the numbers we are seeing, nationally vs. state polls, early voting participation, voting enthusiasm, and the overall feeling in the air right now (i know - very scientific lol) is pointing to Biden actually outperforming state polling, and probably almost hitting or slightly underperforming the current national numbers.

One other thing that will affect so-call undecideds (few as they may be) and maybe move a few people who weren't going to vote is the natural inclination for people to support the winner - in other words, if everyone starts to believe that Biden will win, that in itself creates enough momentum to get some people across the line.
 
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I just read that Melania said Barron had Covid the same time that Mom and Dad did and he is negative now.

She said since they all had it together they could take care of each other. Something tells me OSS wasn't doing any caregiving when he wasn't in Walter Reed, he is completely incapable of that.

I bet he didn't want Melania to disclose that about Barron.
 
Senator Gary Peters Shares His Abortion Story
He’s the first sitting Senator in history to do so.


https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a34339956/senator-gary-peters-abortion/
 
I just read that Melania said Barron had Covid the same time that Mom and Dad did and he is negative now.

She said since they all had it together they could take care of each other. Something tells me OSS wasn't doing any caregiving when he wasn't in Walter Reed, he is completely incapable of that.

I bet he didn't want Melania to disclose that about Barron.
The official word at the time Orange Spreader and Gold Digger came out as positive was that Barron was negative,
Shocked that we were given false info by the administration.
 
One other thing that will affect so-call undecideds (few as they may be) and maybe move a few people who weren't going to vote is the natural inclination for people to support the winner - in other words, if everyone starts to believe that Biden will win, that in itself creates enough momentum to get some people across the line.

Absolutely. The bandwagon effect can be very real. I think this is another opposite of 2016. Everyone badmouthed Hillary. Even people like me that really liked her, still had my criticisms, and Trump was the new shiny thing. Now, the whole tide has shifted.

I think that the long lines are actually going to encourage more voting. It is being seen as an "event" and I think that could even draw out younger voters that wouldn't normally vote.
I also think Biden is peaking at just the right time. I would expect national polls to start to drift back to +8 / +9 in a week or two. Biden is hitting 10.5 in the heart of people mailing in ballots and early in person voting beginning in all 50 states.

Just a side note. I think the whole - "almost all Republicans are all going to vote on election day" is really just not going to be the case. They may tell a pollster this, cause they were thinking that's what they were going to do. But I think when they see double, triple, quadruple the number of votes being cast as people line up for hours to vote early... Most Republicans are going to go out and vote during early voting.
 
16 million people have voted so far (my guess is that's gonna be about 10% of the total ballots cast)
and Biden/Harris raised 383 million in September alone. That means that just August and Sept they raised almost $750 million
 
Whoa, just saw this.
538 A rated NBC/WSJ national poll just dropped. Biden +11. This is Registered Voters. If they release a likely voter version, it will most likely be Biden +12.
 
1 million ballots were cast by Sept. 28th. It took 10 more days to get to 5 million. Six days later it hit 10 million and then it took just 2 days to hit 16 million.

Not sure how the pace will keep up, but there could be over half of the vote in by Election Day.

This also might support my thoughts that there aren’t going to be the enormous number of mail in votes that may have been anticipated. Mail in numbers seemed a little light, and votes started skyrocketing as in person early voting started. This could bode well for having more even numbers on election night.
 
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1 million ballots were cast by Sept. 28th. It took 10 more days to get to 5 million. Six days later it hit 10 million and then it took just 2 days to hit 16 million.

Not sure how the pace will keep up, but there could be over half of the vote in by Election Day.

This also might support my thoughts that there aren’t going to be the enormous number of mail in votes that may have been anticipated. Mail in numbers seemed a little light, and votes started skyrocketing as in person early voting started. This could bode well for having more even numbers on election night.

I’d prefer in person actually. My fear is that Trump will be ahead on Election night and block the counting of all the Mail in votes.
 
How about this? Desperate unhinged manbaby throws Seal Team Six under the bus in crazy fit of Obama envy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/10/14/trump-promotes-baseless-qanon-endorsed-conspiracy-theory-alleging-obama-staged-bin-ladens-killing/
 
Our "President" is retweeting crazy conspiracy theories from a group classified by the FBI as terrorist. From a North Carolina homeschool Mom. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so bizarre and dangerous.
 
Our "President" is retweeting crazy conspiracy theories from a group classified by the FBI as terrorist. From a North Carolina homeschool Mom. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so bizarre and dangerous.

This NC homeschool Mom also tweeted that she has no proof and the allegations should be investigated by people far smarter than she...so we'll get a couple of chimpanzees going on that.


https://twitter.com/Saorsa1776/stat...m/saorsa1776/status/1316083525943263244image=
 
Also. On the "this is why you just let Trump do his rallies" front:

In Iowa Trump went on about how he was nominated 3 times for a Nobel Peace Prize. And how he was in Iowa and was waiting to hear about it on the news. But all he heard about was Iowa's crops being lost and Iowa's flooding - WHAT ABOUT MY NOBEL PRIZE!?!?

yeah, i'm not joking.
 
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