US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader

[Irvine511]

Sexual “preference” doesn’t quite strike me as a dog whistle — but it does seem to be a tell on how she understands the issue. “Preference” implies the notion of choice in one’s sexual orientation, which takes us back literally 20 years.

She’s young enough to know better.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Sexual “preference” doesn’t quite strike me as a dog whistle — but it does seem to be a tell on how she understands the issue. “Preference” implies the notion of choice in one’s sexual orientation, which takes us back literally 20 years.

She’s young enough to know better.

When it comes from someone in her position it's not a misstating or misunderstanding.

 

[Irvine511]

When it comes from someone in her position it's not a misstating or misunderstanding.

Maybe. I’ve seen plenty of people confuse preference with orientation, but she should know better.

Something to watch.

If she’s confirmed, I wholeheartedly support court packing. Might makes right — that’s the McConnell rule. Add 2 more justices, one of whom is Merrick Garland.

 

[anitram]

If she’s confirmed, I wholeheartedly support court packing. Might makes right — that’s the McConnell rule. Add 2 more justices, one of whom is Merrick Garland.

Except that won't have any effect. You'd still be down 6-5. Or in the alternative hope that Thomas makes a timely exit and/or Roberts turns into Souter part 2.

 

[Irvine511]

Except that won't have any effect. You'd still be down 6-5. Or in the alternative hope that Thomas makes a timely exit and/or Roberts turns into Souter part 2.

My intent would actually not be to install a liberal majority but to put it back to roughly where it was in balance and let Roberts swing from the chandelier.

I would elevate legitimacy over liberalism. It’s going to be tough to take a court so obviously PACKED by McConnell seriously.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

My intent would actually not be to install a liberal majority but to put it back to roughly where it was in balance and let Roberts swing from the chandelier.

I would elevate legitimacy over liberalism. It’s going to be tough to take a court so obviously PACKED by McConnell seriously.

I think you'd also have an easier time selling this... i.e. merely reversing the wrong that was committed by not installing Garland.

It shows fairness. I have a much easier time getting on board with a plan like this than I would with adding 3 judges - but I'd also like some sort of legislation put in that sets parameters for adding judges to the court going forward.

 

[Irvine511]

I think you'd also have an easier time selling this... i.e. merely reversing the wrong that was committed by not installing Garland.

It shows fairness. I have a much easier time getting on board with a plan like this than I would with adding 3 judges - but I'd also like some sort of legislation put in that sets parameters for adding judges to the court going forward.

I’d also do away with lifetime appointments.

 

[Hollow Island]

So polling has been a bit spotty lately. We still see a pretty large gap between national and swing state polling. While some states have crept up a bit, it would be nice to see some more substantial movement.

Right now the USC national tracking poll has hit it's highest point. +13/14. State polls out yesterday and today have been sorta meh for Biden, with a couple of bright spots from Morning Consult and NYT.
NYT had WI Biden +10, and PA Biden +8.
And Morning Consult had FL Biden +5, PA +8 and NC +4. Those are really good number for some of the most important and closest states.

Looking more big picture, you can see Biden is still in a strong position in state polling. Nate Silver listed out the swing states here. And as you can see Biden has a decent to overwhelming lead in 10 of the 14 states, and is virtually tied in the remaining 4. Also, having your average at +7.3 in your tipping point state is not a bad place to be in.


NH: Biden +10.9
MN: Biden +8.9
MI: Biden +8.0
WI: Biden +7.7
NE-2: Biden +7.5
PA: Biden +7.3 <-- TIPPING POINT
NV: Biden: +6.9
FL: Biden +4.6
AZ: Biden +3.8
NC: Biden +3.4
ME-2: Biden +1.3
IA: Biden +1.1
GA: Biden +0.6
OH: Biden +0.2
TX: Trump +1.5

Today a cable was "accidentally" cut in Virginia and the voter registration system went down...on the last day to register. Republicans have fake ballot boxes in California and will continue to deploy them...then there's the regular voter suppression measures, and the goons that will be out on election day.

Would Republicans be able to cheat their way to victory if Biden's polling lead translates to votes? Would they be able to nullify a lead that large with various measures of suppression?

 

[womanfish]

https://mobile.twitter.com/rez512/status/1315980969132818432

People are pissed

 

[LemonMelon]

The way things are going, Joe could be at 53% vote share by next week. 52.5% today with Trump dipping below 42%.

 

[Popmartijn]

My intent would actually not be to install a liberal majority but to put it back to roughly where it was in balance and let Roberts swing from the chandelier.

I would elevate legitimacy over liberalism. It’s going to be tough to take a court so obviously PACKED by McConnell seriously.

Still, there's something to be said for adding 4 judges, bringing the total to 13. Assign each one to a District Court, with the Chief Justice getting a pass. Sounds logical.

 

[BEAL]

It would have been better (and safer) to just confirm her now vs this sham hearing.

She was never going to answer anything.

Safer in that multiple GOP senators are covid positive and sitting in that room without masks on.

 

[Irvine511]

Still, there's something to be said for adding 4 judges, bringing the total to 13. Assign each one to a District Court, with the Chief Justice getting a pass. Sounds logical.

Sure! Open to this too. American needs judicial job creation.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Good people. Liberators!


(CNN)The group charged with plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also discussed kidnapping Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, an FBI agent testified in court on Tuesday.

FBI agent Richard Trask testified during a preliminary hearing that the group discussed taking out sitting governors due to their "coronavirus-related lockdown orders."

"They discussed possible targets, taking a sitting governor, specifically governors of Michigan and Virginia, over shut down orders," Trask said.


"The understanding at the time was to potentially kidnap a sitting governor and remove them from office," he added.

The FBI obtained this information during a June 6 meeting in Dublin, Ohio. A person who attended the meeting came forward to authorities "based on concerns (over) some of the directions that the group was headed and potential violence."

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Jesus Christ.

Heckuva job, GOP. What a great example you've set here .

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I guess his security detail was asleep at the wheel? Wth

BOSTON (CBS) – The WBZ I-Team has learned a man is accused of breaking into Governor Charlie Baker’s house last week. Baker’s wife and daughter were home at the time.

Lane Forman is well known to police. While Governor Baker’s security detail was parked in front of his Swampscott home, the Danvers man allegedly pulled into the driveway and opened an unlocked exterior door leading into the kitchen.

Police said the 59-year-old Forman left behind a letter addressed to Baker along with documents and photos.

It happened on Wednesday, October 7 at about 3:30 in the afternoon. Police said First Lady Lauren Baker and her daughter were at home at the time.

Troopers questioned Forman and asked what he was doing at the residence. According to the police report, Forman said, “Don’t [expletive] with me, Charlie told me to drop this off.”

Forman was arrested the next day and charged with breaking and entering. Police said he has a violent criminal history.

In the last few months, the governor’s home has been the scene of several protests. Sources say in the wake of this last incident, security has been stepped up and additional surveillance cameras are being installed.

As for Forman, court records show he pleaded not guilty. He was held on $5000 cash bail and ordered to undergo a competency hearing. He’s due back in court next month.

 

[BEAL]

So what do we lose when ACB is confirmed ?

ACA - 100%
Reproductive Rights - 85%
Voting Rights / Gerrymandering amok - 90%
Marriage Equality - 90% (the right leaning justices have been itching for this one)
Election for Trump - 50%

No scientific method. All gut.

If Dems win then senate and actually fucking do something like expand the court maybe some of those hunches go down

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Like I've said before, even if they did pack the courts, I'd personally also just remove her and replace her with someone else, because of the simple fact that she would've been appointed under extremely dubious, to put it mildly, circumstances, what with them trying to rush her through during a pandemic (and despite the fact that some of the Senate is currently sick), and her being picked by an impeached president. That would also tie back into the above discussion about changes regarding how to appoint/add judges and such, and stress the importance of new regulations and rules for when and how SC appointments are made going forward.

And if the Democrats win, they also need to do everything in their power to make it so that things like reproductive rights, voting rights, LGBTQ rights, etc., aren't at risk of being chipped away at or removed ever again by anyone.

 

[Irvine511]

So what do we lose when ACB is confirmed ?

ACA - 100%
Reproductive Rights - 85%
Voting Rights / Gerrymandering amok - 90%
Marriage Equality - 90% (the right leaning justices have been itching for this one)

These things are all very popular with large majorities of the American public. Taking them away would damage the legitimacy of the court.

 

[anitram]

These things are all very popular with large majorities of the American public. Taking them away would damage the legitimacy of the court.

Not to mention a pretty significant case of buyers remorse.

 

[BEAL]

You think they care ?

ACA was gone had McCain not gotten a tumor and guilted into giving thumbs down.

This is the same group that has let America get sick, die, and ruin businesses all to keep power.

They want chaos in order to justify authoritarian power. May not come in 2020, but 2022 and 2024 watch out

 

[womanfish]

Just some random good stuff

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316219679380246533

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316214645615521792

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316209743543758848

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316197030872702976

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316171863803006978

 

[womanfish]

Also just a random thought here. But I have had this hunch for a while. It seems that when Trump goes somewhere for a rally, his polling there seems to slide a little. Now I'm not going through all the dates and polls to figure that out. But He started hammering PA with visits when Biden was down around +4.5, and we saw numbers climb in PA, now at +7ish. FL, the same. Biden slipped to about +2, and over the last month of more visits, now +4.5.

I know it can't be direct correlation. But I've heard interviews with people in cities and towns where Trump went, and they are making comments like - No way in hell would I go.
I can't believe he's coming here during a pandemic. I'm so sick of this... etc...

The rallies are completely for Trump's ego. He goes to a city of 150,000 and 6,000 show up, and the rest of the city is like - what the fuck?!?

So I say keep those rallies going!

 

[womanfish]

The way things are going, Joe could be at 53% vote share by next week. 52.5% today with Trump dipping below 42%.

Just for some context:

Total support for the candidate leading the RCP poll average, three weeks out from the election:

2020: Biden 51.6%
2016: Clinton 49.0%
2012: Romney 47.4%
2008: Obama 50.2%

So Biden is higher right now than Obama in 2008 where he won 365 to 173, and Trump is running about 5 points lower than the loser of the 2012 election, where Obama beat Romney 332 to 206.

And side note. 538 has Biden's support at 52.4%

 

[Popmartijn]

So what do we lose when ACB is confirmed ?

ACA - 100

Isn't that one remedied quite easily? Put a non-zero fine/tax on not complying with the individual mandate and the ACA is valid (according to previous rulings by the Supreme Court). So if both the House and the Senate turn Democratic, pass a law that sets this at a certain amount and the ACA is saved (for now, it needs more legislation to strengthen it).

 

[Hollow Island]

These things are all very popular with large majorities of the American public. Taking them away would damage the legitimacy of the court.

The hard right ideologues don't care about the legitimacy of anything. They want to achieve their goal and don't care about anything else. It's not even like they run the risk of getting voted our or losing power because they went against the will of the people. They have lifetime positions.

They don't need legitimacy - they have power.

It's scary shit.

 

[Hollow Island]

Just for some context:

Total support for the candidate leading the RCP poll average, three weeks out from the election:

2020: Biden 51.6%
2016: Clinton 49.0%
2012: Romney 47.4%
2008: Obama 50.2%

So Biden is higher right now than Obama in 2008 where he won 365 to 173, and Trump is running about 5 points lower than the loser of the 2012 election, where Obama beat Romney 332 to 206.

And side note. 538 has Biden's support at 52.4%

Are those numbers strong enough to make up for votes that will be lost to GOP cheating?

 

[anitram]

Isn't that one remedied quite easily? Put a non-zero fine/tax on not complying with the individual mandate and the ACA is valid (according to previous rulings by the Supreme Court). So if both the House and the Senate turn Democratic, pass a law that sets this at a certain amount and the ACA is saved (for now, it needs more legislation to strengthen it).

It’s not that simple because you will have a strong contingent demanding for more during this second kick at the can. In other words, if you control all the legislative bodies and the presidency, why wouldn’t you improve on it and then it becomes about spending political capital.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Are those numbers strong enough to make up for votes that will be lost to GOP cheating?

This is the only question that's left.

I think so, but I'm still quite nervous.

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/nbcpolitics/status/1316336208251965440?s=21

Why NBC? Why?