US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313449844413992961?s=21

Experts are worried about a twindemic, and here’s our brave little soldier tweeting out nonsense again.

A lot of Southern Hemisphere countries that took strong covid restrictions were able to avoid any flu outbreak.

I’m not sure America will be so lucky, at least in those states that seem to defy mask or health orders.

Hell, The flu is a huge risk to President Trump considering his battle with covid

 

[BEAL]

Also, last time there were over 100k deaths from the flu

1968

 

[womanfish]

Saw about half...

I did see her...
heh, I get what you're saying bc how could she be undecided as a black woman, considering the choice!
Feels like a DUuuuHhh moment.

OTOH - you're going to be on TV in this rather highly focused event - maybe she just wanted to hear something more concrete from Biden on the subject considering she's in the targeted group. More reassurance.

Yeah, I mean, not that she was black. But you literally have two choices and one IS a white supremacist. Just found it funny that she would call herself undecided. But your last point may be why.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Trump is tweeting about late term abortion.

Which doesn’t sound desperate and scattershot at all.

That's not surprising. But of course all the lives taken by covid, he disrespected every single one of them yesterday. I guess they're suckers and losers, they just didn't fight hard enough and they were too afraid. Pro life my ass. He's DEPLORABLE and so are his followers at this point. Hillary was right.

Google what Amanda Kloots, Nick Cordero's widow, said about what Trump said and did yesterday.

 

[anitram]

First of all, Biden needs to run negative ads again. Fuck this asshole in the White House, now is not the time to treat him with any sort of respect which he routinely denies to everyone else.

Second, the second debate either has to be cancelled or they should do it remotely. It's plainly obvious that you cannot trust Trump or any person in his entourage to be honest about when they were tested, their results, their current status or mask wearing. They are not operating in good faith and I wouldn't agree to be indoors with any of them.

Third, 28 days, forget about this piece of shit and do what you can to encourage early voting. Treat him as irrelevant.

 

[Irvine511]

Also, last time there were over 100k deaths from the flu

1968

There was also, I believe, a bad bird flu that year.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I think Biden needs to harp on encouraging in person early voting, where possible, in purple and red states.

 

[womanfish]

I'd write it off as a total outlier were it not for the (much better quality) NBC/WSJ poll that had him at +14 a couple of days ago.

Holy shit is all I can say about this poll. That said. I think we are in outlier territory. But your point here is a good one. After looking at other polls:

We have ABC/Wapo at +10, Data for Progress at +10, Ipsos at +10, a few other pollters with +10, the USC tracking poll at +11-12 depending on turnout I think, Hofstra at 11, Change Research at +13, and of course, NBC with +14.

Now the others are somewhere between +3 and +9. So it paints a muddy picture, but if Joe is moving closer to a +10 area, than the CNN and NBC polls are not so much outliers as they are polls that are out on the edge of the MOE.

My guess here is that we continue to see polls more in the +8 to +10 range, with the occasional +5 and +12. But I could be wrong. We may see more on the higher side, which you would then expect to see similar shifts in state polling. If we see states like PA, WI, MI, FL, AZ start to shift blue by a couple more points, then it would lend more credence to these higher national polls. We've seen a slight shift in AZ, PA, and FL, but nothing very clear or consistent.

Not sure when we get more larger polling firms to release anything. Some state polls from Monmouth and Sienna today and tomorrow, but not sure on national. Probably after the VP debate for sure.

 

[BEAL]

There was also, I believe, a bad bird flu that year.

Another Obama / Biden failure.

 

[womanfish]

From G Elliott Morris.

If Biden is up by 8-9 like our model says then we would expect to see +16 polls in about one of every 30 samples, so this isn't like earth shatteringly weird

 

[Hewson]

There was also, I believe, a bad bird flu that year.

 

[womanfish]

So we finally get a couple FL polls from A rated pollsters, and what do we get? One tied and one Biden +6. sigh.

The tied one is not head to head, so you might be able to say that it could be Biden +1, but even so. Joe isn't breaking past that >4 point area in the average that I think he needs to be in to win.

 

[anitram]

I have always thought that the only way Florida is within reach is if there is a clear landslide/national shift. It's honestly best to always assume they are not going to come through.

Saw today that Biden is throwing $ at Texas, so the internals must be reasonably encouraging.

 

[BEAL]

Considering how Trump has treated his (ongoing) experience with covid, is there any doubt left that he’ll peacefully transfer power or leave office ?

Think he’s stubborn with Walter Reed, wait until he can’t deal with defeat

 

[anitram]

Winning message, insofar as American women are concerned!

https://twitter.com/TomiLahren/status/1313312828670046208

 

[womanfish]

I have always thought that the only way Florida is within reach is if there is a clear landslide/national shift. It's honestly best to always assume they are not going to come through.

Saw today that Biden is throwing $ at Texas, so the internals must be reasonably encouraging.

So this is where I think the national polls are important. Biden could be up +6 near election day and still do just fine and win WI, PA, MI, most likely AZ. But if those national polls go the other way and he stays at 8 or hits 9 by election day, it's very likely that states like NC, GA, FL, OH and possibly TX could go blue. That's why a couple points nationally can be the difference between a 280 or 290 EC vote total for Biden, vs. a 370 to 400 EC vote total.

 

[womanfish]

And as I was writing that last post. Another wow poll.

Monmouth. A pollster that has given Trump some of his best numbers this year, just came out with their PA poll.

PA - Biden +11

That is... brutal. Their last poll was Sept. 2nd. Biden +3

 

[anitram]

WI/MI/PA/AZ I think are cooked.

You have to start wondering if over the next 4 weeks they manage to drag OH over the line - to me that's less likely than Florida, but not out of the realm of possibility.

If you have enough antacids at home to spend a bit of time on Republican boards, you'll note that they're all convinced this is going to be not just an easy win for Trump, but a landslide. It's a remarkable level of delusion, but in a way it's helpful because they don't appear to have the same sense of voting urgency.

 

[womanfish]

WI/MI/PA/AZ I think are cooked.

You have to start wondering if over the next 4 weeks they manage to drag OH over the line - to me that's less likely than Florida, but not out of the realm of possibility.

If you have enough antacids at home to spend a bit of time on Republican boards, you'll note that they're all convinced this is going to be not just an easy win for Trump, but a landslide. It's a remarkable level of delusion, but in a way it's helpful because they don't appear to have the same sense of voting urgency.

It's the blessing of the 2016 poll myth. Dems are overly worried and convinced they can't sit this one out and are primed to go vote. Trumpers are convinced polls are fake news and their superhero will pull it out in the end. Definitely a good position for Dems to be in.

 

[womanfish]

PA has seen it's share of uneven polls. But looking at polls just from A rated pollsters over the last couple weeks you have

Monmouth +11
Sienna +7
ABC +9
TIPP +5
Fox News +7

Average - Biden +7.8

Average of A rated polls in AZ over the last two weeks
Biden +6

Only 2 A rated polls from OH the last two weeks.
avg. Biden +3

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1313494764759678978

 

[anitram]

It's the blessing of the 2016 poll myth. Dems are overly worried and convinced they can't sit this one out and are primed to go vote. Trumpers are convinced polls are fake news and their superhero will pull it out in the end. Definitely a good position for Dems to be in.

They are writing it off on account of the fact that Trump has a "yuuuuuge enthusiasm gap advantage" because nobody is excited about Joe.

What they are totally failing to consider is the number of people who would crawl over glass to vote for whoever was the Democratic nominee, cats, dogs and llamas included.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

It's really all about Bumble searches, guys.

 

[phanan]

This really says it all.

 

[anitram]

It's really all about Bumble searches, guys.

Trump coasting to victory on the backs of single broads across America.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1313494764759678978

clearly, in normal times and without the wound of 2016 still fresh and open, we would be speaking not as to whether or not Biden will win, but whether or not he'll come close to Reagan/Mondale territory.

alas - it's not normal times, and 2016 still haunts our country. i don't really want to hear about "polling myths" from 2016. nobody of any reasonable mind anticipated trump would win. this includes trump himself.

alas... here are the questions i have for the remaining 28 days.

1. what impact will the republican's war on mail in ballots have? will it be enough to overturn what seems to be an insurmountable lead? (i can't stress enough - if you are able to vote in person and you live in a red state? vote in person)
2. will there be violence at polling sites on election day and what impact will that have?
3. will we know the result on election day?
4. we know that the russians infiltrated voting rolls in 2016 but didn't do anything (we think). was that a dry run for 2020?
5. what impact will trump's inevitable relapse and recurring issues from covid - from incapacitation/coma/incubation to the not impossible idea that he still may not survive his infection - have on the election?
6. is there still a wild card out there that we're not anticipating that could hurt biden?

 

[phanan]

Can something still happen over the next 28 days that totally shifts things as they currently are? Of course. I think everyone knows that.

But I think too much is being made of 2016, tbh. Even going by the 2016 scenario, Biden is still clearly winning this right now.

 

[BEAL]

Biden and Harris should not be doing these debates in person.

At least not without every person passing a covid test, right then and there. No honor system.

Don’t put it past these assholes to being infected staff

 

[dazzledbylight]

Yeah, I mean, not that she was black. But you literally have two choices and one IS a white supremacist. Just found it funny that she would call herself undecided. But your last point may be why.

Oh, yeah... like eye roll funny,
thus the "DduuuuHh" from me.

as for those polls ???
Keep GOTVing!

 

[anitram]

SurveyUSA (A-rated on 538) just came out with Biden +10 in FL.