I can't sleep, so I wanted to do a post that may give some perspective on the polling and 2016, and it's enduring myth that it was so disastrously wrong. And because of 2016 PTSD, Dems tend to freak out and worry about the polls and what will happen. Maybe this gives some piece of mind.
So we have two very different races. 2016 was volatile and we had two very real October surprises that shook up the race temporarily. State polls in the midwest were off more than the national avg, but within the margin of error. WI, almost 5 points, MI, around 3, and PA around 1.
But the national avg was almost spot on.
Here was Clinton's avg lead over the time leading up to the election.
Late September - Clinton +2.6
Early October - Clinton +6.2 (access hollywood time)
Mid October - Clinton +5.5
Late October/Early Nov - Clinton +2.9 (Comey announcement)
So the national polls were at 2.9% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.2%
Things are a lot different now. The race is the most stable in the history of modern polling. Surprise after surprise has shown the polls to be nearly unshakable.
Most pollsters have adjusted their weighting to fix 2016 issues, and Trump is now the incumbent, and now undecides are breaking to Biden where they broke heavily for Trump in 2016.
You have a popular and liked candidate vs a disliked candidate now, where in 2016, the fav/unfav of both candidates were nearly identical.
We know that Biden has to be getting 5+% nationally in order to win the EC. Right now Biden is at +8. He is on a bit of an upswing right now, Moving from 7.1 to 8.2 over the last two weeks. I believe 6.6 is the lowest he's been at on 538 in the last 5 months.
And to put it in an even starker frame. If Biden can hold an 8 point lead, that puts him a much greater chance to have a landslide election than a squeaker.
These next two weeks i think will be the most pivotal. Will Trump's health turn to the worse? Will he get better quickly and be back on the trail and in another debate. Will the VP debate actually mean something more this time? Will covid cases continue to rise? Is there some other late surprise?
The obvious caveats to a much larger mail in vote this time, and a much more concerted voter disenfranchisement/voter intimidation effort than last time. But I also think that the enthusiasm and participation this time will be historic. And greater turnout benefits the Dems.
So lets see what happens the next 14 days or so, and where this is headed. Biden >+9??? or Biden <7??? I don't know. My best guess. Biden sits right around 8% til about the last week, and we see a slight late tightening to about 7.5. But that's just my gut at this point.
