MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
No surprise at all of course-NY Times reporting that the WH pressured the CDC to downplay the risks of reopening schools.
US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada
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Using betting markets isn't actually as dumb as it sounds - they employ some of the best statisticians around and they tend to want to adjust their odds to be as realistic as possible - while still making it enticing for people to bet the underdog. They're not dumb.
But the odds aren't showing what he thinks it does.
Florida is a toss up. Sure, Trump at -125 has a slight odds edge. But no better looks at -125 vs -100 with the idea that anyone's a clear favorite. If this were an NFL game that would be a pick em.
So if you toss Florida out and give every state to a candidate based on who is a clear favorite on the betting markets Biden comes out ahead 290 to 219 - rendering florida as inconsequential.
The real highlight of his insightful post was saying that arizona was going to flip red because he counted the single women aged 22 to 40 in arizona on a dating app and they had favorable numbers for conservatives.
That's a serious flex.
But the odds aren't showing what he thinks it does.
Florida is a toss up. Sure, Trump at -125 has a slight odds edge. But no better looks at -125 vs -100 with the idea that anyone's a clear favorite. If this were an NFL game that would be a pick em.
So if you toss Florida out and give every state to a candidate based on who is a clear favorite on the betting markets Biden comes out ahead 290 to 219 - rendering florida as inconsequential.
The real highlight of his insightful post was saying that arizona was going to flip red because he counted the single women aged 22 to 40 in arizona on a dating app and they had favorable numbers for conservatives.
That's a serious flex.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
This is actually a really huge deal. The polling from PA has been limited and uneven compared to WI and MI this past month or so. So we got two polls from two A+ rated live pollsters yesterday. the Sienna poll with PA +9. That was great. But if ABC came out and it was +3 or 4, we'd be in the exact same spot as we were before. Not really knowing what the hell was going on in PA.
But with both polls showing +9 (Likely voters - is the standard now that we are this close to the election) it shows something really big, not just in PA, but in the midwest in general. A little over a week ago I posted that "something was happening in the midwest." The Fox News poll had just come out with OH +5 for Biden. Along with strong polls from WI and MI from several pollsters.
The two PA +9 polls show this is not isolated. There has been a shift towards Biden overall in the midwest over the last month. This opens up a whole new world of paths for Biden. If he can hold PA, and we know that MI, WI, and MN are solid, then everything else is just an added bonus. Right now, I would say the most likely wins for Biden in order would be AZ, FL, NC, OH, IA, GA, TX.
With just the midwest/Pa combo, Biden would win 278 to 258. Throw in ME-2 and NE-2 and he'd have 280 to 256.
Give Biden just 2 of the next likely states, lets say NC and AZ and he'd have 306 to 230, a very substantial victory. If the midwest keeps trending and holding for Biden, throw in OH and it's 324 to 212. Or he misses OH, but squeaks out FL - 335 to 201.
I think the best part is that FL ads from Bloomberg start today, While Biden is doing a train tour through OH and Western PA, along with huge TV ad buys in those areas starting next week. I think it will help to ensure that the midwest/PA states at least stay steady, and hopefully we start to see a trend back a bit in FL.
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DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
"several" dating apps, where 90% of users have their political affiliation plainly listed in their profiles, apparently.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Why Biden is winning in midwest, NE-2 and ME-2 and why you see Trump leading by only 9 instead of 20 in places like KS.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1310971570698022912
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1310971570698022912
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
i think we all need to see this post.
how many women in Arizona are his underage cousins?
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
he's not wrong!
this is also why he thinks, on the basis of pretty solid evidence, that most of his supporters are dumb-as-rocks. because they do things like buy private jets for their megachurch pastors.
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DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
jesus didn't fly commercial so why should the people doing his work?
checkmate libs.
checkmate libs.
I for one am shocked that a mega church pastor with the last name dollar might be fleecing his flock for personal gain.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Quinnipiac - GA Biden +3
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
the article also talks about how Trump feels a strong kinship with these fellow grifters. birds of a feather, and all.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
just saw this.
i'd be excited, but Georgia probably needs UN observers to guarantee a free and fair election.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Yeah, it definitely will be sketchy there. But i also think that Abrams has been on the ground there for two years working on safeguarding as best she can, and I believe GA just passed a rule that all GA votes have to have backup paper ballots, which is good.
Could go both ways.
These safe red states have never really had to put in a real effort towards cheating/disenfranchising on the level seen in the battlegrounds. Florida next door is a great example. It will depend on how proactive they've been in the last year as opposed to being reactive to polls slipping out of reach.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
but in Georgia, white people are allowed to vote at Chik-Fil-A. black people were supposed to have voted last week.
Brian Kemp strikes me as pretty proactive about these sorts of things.
Brian Kemp strikes me as pretty proactive about these sorts of things.
Yes, he's a veteran of the trade.
The worst part of all of this is that so many people are just living for Nov 3 for this nightmare to be over...and the very high likelihood that the nightmare extends for weeks on end. That's when things get twitchy for people.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
That's very good. I love Captain Sully
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden paid nearly $288,000 in federal income taxes last year, according to returns he released just hours before his Tuesday night debate with President Donald Trump.
The move came following a report from The New York Times that Trump paid just $750 in income taxes in 2016, the year he ran for president, and in 2017, his first year in the White House.
Biden and his wife, Jill, along with Biden’s running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, released their 2019 federal and state returns as the president contends with the political fallout from a series of Times reports about Trump’s long-hidden tax returns. The Times also reported that Trump paid no income tax at all in 10 of the 15 years prior to 2017.
The Bidens’ payment of $287,693 to the federal government in 2019 showed a substantial drop from the $1.5 million they paid in income taxes in 2018, reflecting both a decline in Biden’s book revenue and his decision to run for the presidency and a leave of absence from his academic post at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. After paying $91,000 in 2016, Biden’s last year as vice president in the Obama administration, the Bidens paid $3.7 million to the government in 2017, largely because of income from book deals.
The Biden campaign has moved aggressively to capitalize on the Times reports about Trump’s tiny tax payments. The campaign released a media ad showing that nurses, firefighters and other working-class Americans pay far more in annual federal taxes than the $750 Trump tax payments described by the Times.
Trump has denied the Times report, dismissing it as “fake news” at a press conference, but he has provided no evidence to refute it.
The move came following a report from The New York Times that Trump paid just $750 in income taxes in 2016, the year he ran for president, and in 2017, his first year in the White House.
Biden and his wife, Jill, along with Biden’s running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, released their 2019 federal and state returns as the president contends with the political fallout from a series of Times reports about Trump’s long-hidden tax returns. The Times also reported that Trump paid no income tax at all in 10 of the 15 years prior to 2017.
The Bidens’ payment of $287,693 to the federal government in 2019 showed a substantial drop from the $1.5 million they paid in income taxes in 2018, reflecting both a decline in Biden’s book revenue and his decision to run for the presidency and a leave of absence from his academic post at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. After paying $91,000 in 2016, Biden’s last year as vice president in the Obama administration, the Bidens paid $3.7 million to the government in 2017, largely because of income from book deals.
The Biden campaign has moved aggressively to capitalize on the Times reports about Trump’s tiny tax payments. The campaign released a media ad showing that nurses, firefighters and other working-class Americans pay far more in annual federal taxes than the $750 Trump tax payments described by the Times.
Trump has denied the Times report, dismissing it as “fake news” at a press conference, but he has provided no evidence to refute it.
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DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
holy shit that plane accident was 11 YEARS AGO?!? oof i'm old.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Love it.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Civiqs poll - GA - Biden +3
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Awesome ad. Needs to be condensed and aired on TV. TX his home state and would play well in the midwest/PA
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
I would truly love to see that. I do hope that they do bring up his taxes in some fashion at some point. That and his comments about refusing to concede the election/his attempts to sabotage mail-in voting. Let him have to try and defend that insanity to the viewers.
I was just arguing with someone on another board who was rather dismissive of the idea that Trump was bending the CDC to his will. He also claimed hospitals weren't overwhelmed and called the report about the USPS plan to distribute masks being nixed by the White House "daft", so...yeah.
I just read an article earlier about how, if Biden wins Ohio on election night, that could hurt Trump's chances of trying to contest the election (not to say he wouldn't still try, of course, but it'd make it less likely that we'd have to actually seriously entertain his demands).
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ohio-cou...m-contesting-the-2020-election-123336686.html
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
While Biden needs to land punches related to taxes and stuff, he needs to relentlessly focus on health care and say PREXISTING CONDITIONS and COVID over and over and over.
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Having lived near the way more northern and western section of Mahattan (and now not too far from there in The Bronx) The Hudson River is something I often except for this year. Decades earlier I'd even been down right by it.
That was an amazing, insane day.
Very good ad. Who ever mentioned - some tightening, too.
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dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Let's see 
Pre-existing Conditions, Covid,
Taxes, Justice, Russia, Climate Change
Pre-existing Conditions, Covid,
Taxes, Justice, Russia, Climate Change
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