US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

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i realize that all of us have bad moments, and that many people suffer from mental illness, and none of us would want these moments captured on camera and broadcast around the world for all to see.

but none of us held a super-spreader event in Oklahoma that got a bunch of people including Herman Cain killed, nor have we grifted money off of a campaign for Individual 1 who owes $420m+ to dictators.

these are objectively bad people.

so please enjoy watching Brad Parscale being Florida Man.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...qIU76KcBNAyRwIZhTsTcBC9S820GXbkLCI6LAyH1nREjw



also, imagine how this would have gone down were he Black. or just not rich and white and well-known.
 


Report from the UK about the targeting of blacks by the Trump campaign to deter them from voting. They drew from a database of 192 million Americans that categorized them by their perceived voting preference and sent targeted ads their way through Facebook.

They're basically doing the same shit now by muddying the waters with voter fraud/faithless elector hand-wringing to convince people that voting doesn't matter.
 
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Report from the UK about the targeting of blacks by the Trump campaign to deter them from voting. They drew from a database of 192 million Americans that categorized them by their perceived voting preference and sent targeted ads their way through Facebook.

They're basically doing the same shit now by muddying the waters with voter fraud/faithless elector hand-wringing to convince people that voting doesn't matter.


I was just about to post this. This is pretty perfect point for Biden to talk about on the eve of the debate that Trump views black voters as were labeled "deterrence" and tried to stop them from voting.
 
I was just about to post this. This is pretty perfect point for Biden to talk about on the eve of the debate that Trump views black voters as were labeled "deterrence" and tried to stop them from voting.



Probably best to let Kamala do the talking, since Uncle Joe already put his foot in his mouth re: ya ain’t black.
 
I know that polls are tight, and people like to go back and compare with 2016, and say, Hillary was up in the polls too!!! This is disaster, it's too close!
Well, This may help. It's not just about the margin, although Biden has better margins than Clinton had at this point, but it's very much about the total share of the vote.

Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.

ABC/Wapo poll of PA coming late tonight. He was up 10 in WI and 8 in MI in their polls a couple days ago. I would love to see a PA +6 or 7...

https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr/status/1310668794910642179
 
https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo/status/1310221953110888449

Breaking news: NO John durham interim report. No indictments before election - Bartiromo sources.

Wow. So translation. What they found after almost a year of trying was not just totally insufficient to say anything bad about Biden/Obama/Hunter/FBI etc... But it most likely dug up more bad news on Trump. Because they can't even twist what they found to say something bad.

That's the part that gets me the most about the people who are grumpy that Obama/Clinton/Biden/etc. haven't been nailed yet. The GOP are the ones who've been spending years investigating them, be it about Benghazi or the e-mails or the idea that the Russia investigation was solely a way to target Trump or whatever. They opened an investigation into supposed "voter fraud", too. All those investigations ultimately fell flat.

So either the GOP completely sucks at handling investigations...or it's just further proof that at the end of the day, there's really no "there" there and this is just their insane conspiracy nonsense blowing up in their faces.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...rump-ivanka-running-mate-2016-book-rick-gates

Of course he did.
And they say a picture is worth 1,000 words..."blech", "incest" and "gross" have to be the first 3 on the list.

On the one hand, I shouldn't be surprised. On the other hand....oof.

Another law we should implement if we get Trump and his family out of here? Stop with the family dynasties in politics. Yes, this might mean that some good, responsible family members of those who've held office won't be able to do so, but it also means no Trump family members will ever darken the White House doorstep again, either.

So. Between that news, the lack of anything on the Democrats, the tax stuff, and the UK's story about trying to deter black voters, Trump's having quite the bad day, ain't he?

Tomorrow night's debate could be veeeeeeeeery interesting. I'm gonna bring snacks.
 
I know that polls are tight, and people like to go back and compare with 2016, and say, Hillary was up in the polls too!!! This is disaster, it's too close!
Well, This may help. It's not just about the margin, although Biden has better margins than Clinton had at this point, but it's very much about the total share of the vote.

Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.

ABC/Wapo poll of PA coming late tonight. He was up 10 in WI and 8 in MI in their polls a couple days ago. I would love to see a PA +6 or 7...

https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr/status/1310668794910642179


Also, aren’t this year’s polls adjusted to sample a correct allotment of different types of voters? It would seem, based on that change, that the difference is even more striking from 2016.
 
also, one would think that holding the SCOTUS pick until after the election would help Trump? that it would energize his base? that it would give them a reason to go to the polls and vote? sure, it will do the same for the D's, but better to have that energy than not? like if he gets a 6-3 majority, what else is there to live for if you are a single issue abortion voter?

i can only think it's because they all think that his electoral goose is cooked, and their only prayer is chaos and a SCOTUS vote like B vs G, or that the 6-3 court will be the lasting legacy of the awful, awful Trump years.
 
Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.

As soon as a candidate hits around 52-53%, barring something shocking, it's basically a done deal because the number of undecideds usually becomes negligible.
 
also, one would think that holding the SCOTUS pick until after the election would help Trump? that it would energize his base? that it would give them a reason to go to the polls and vote?

No - they need him to step up and not be a super accommodating derogatory term for ladyparts like W was.
 
As soon as a candidate hits around 52-53%, barring something shocking, it's basically a done deal because the number of undecideds usually becomes negligible.


Assuming that’s a repeated thing, yeah. And that’s the nice thing about Biden’s numbers. Lead margin aside, his numbers are more commonly touching the high 40s and low 50s, whereas a lot of Clinton’s leads were still true vote percentages at the end of the day, but a lot of the gray areas in swing states in fact swung for Trump.
 
Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.

Biden is planning a HUGE TV ad buy in Ohio, starting in the next week.
 
Also, aren’t this year’s polls adjusted to sample a correct allotment of different types of voters? It would seem, based on that change, that the difference is even more striking from 2016.

Yeah, most polls are reweighing non college whites in their samples differently this year, so the argument that the polls will be biased against Trump in 2020 is not a particularly strong one. Trump may over perform the polls. Biden is just as likely to over perform the polls.
 
Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.

Biden is planning a HUGE TV ad buy in Ohio, starting in the next week.

It's becoming clear that they're not even trying to win anymore.

At least not at the ballot box. :shrug:
 
Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.

Oh, thank god.

ETA: Regarding that article about Pennsylvania..this line gives me hope:

The president has virtually no path to a second term without Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.

Incidentally, my sister just moved there this past summer, so may be checking in with her at some point to talk about how things are faring out there.
 
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our dear old friend orgopooprah has been trying to convince "the other forum" that trump is going to win again (although that doesn't seem too hard, considering the collective IQ there is approximately the sum of the ages of my two cats) because the betting markets are taking money in for trump in PA recently, because, you know, betting markets are geared to predict the actual outcome of the event, rather than to make money for the bookies, apparently.
 
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Handmaid’s Tale stuff.
Actually I haven't visited bc I just spent 2 1/2 days binging THT S2 & S3 on Hulu's free month trial.
:yikes: :crack:
Why would I put myself through that? For the moment it's worse than our current USA, and world. The writing, acting, and cinema photography is superb!
Also I read it in paperback once it came out back in the '80's. :yikes:

Get ready for a new acronym: ACB.

And good luck, American women.

And people with pre-existing conditions.

And refugees.

And immigrants.

And gays.

And trans folks.

And voting rights.

They will be coming for all of us.
I know. :crack: I hear you.

lol ok

Republicans: uhhh this guy has donated close to $200 million in about two weeks, negated our attempt to keep former felons from voting by paying off all their fines, and there's still 40 days to go... we should try to arrest him.

Democrats: why won't this dick spend any money?
I do hope he spends more as he'd promised. Still, this is good stuff!

It’s a good town, but there are some tough things. You may not know this, but we have no voice in the Senate! None at all! And we pay more per capita in federal tax that then gets doled out to red states where people hate our fucking guts and get excited when their representatives threaten to do things like flood our streets with guns or overturn marijuana legalization which passed by like 60% in a referendum. It’s quite a thankless place to be sometimes! But then we do get enjoy our beautiful neighborhoods, educated and sophisticated population, breathtaking monuments, diversity, and great museums.

I also sometimes live in Anarchist New York. I could talk your ear off on that one too.
:wave: Hello from Anarchist NYC!

You have Eleanor Holmes ?Norton as a non voting Representative, right? I know DC doesn't have any or partial representation.

Been in DC sooo many times, as a visitor, and protestor!
Even after (or taking a break from) a protest we've stopped in one museum. Seen other protestors do that too. :D

I absolutely love The Mall. It's so sweeping in scale. The incredible Museums. Tree lined walkways. The Reflecting Pool. Lincoln Memorial. The Capitol. It's sad to see all the extra physical barrier security that started to happen after that prop plane crashed into the WH during Clinton's stay. So very glad I saw it quite a few times before that.

And visiting the WH once at Christmas when The Clinton's were celebrating The American Craftsman - each tree was decorated things made completely or mostly of a single type of material; wood, glass, metal, ceramics etc. Glorious! And the rooms were decked out in Christmas decorations. It was wonderful!

I even went to Adams Morgan as part of a summer visit for a rooftop dinner during the Clinton years.

But, oh, I feel the most patriotic there in DC - thinking of all the people marching there in the past to make this country better.

But he also never gets any more popular.
Yeah, I've been hearing that through Cook's Polititical Report. They use another word than "ceiling".

He also knows that when he loses, the law is coming. He’ll pardon himself for federal stuff, but Cy Vance has the goods.

Which will make him that much more dangerous and crazy. So we have good reason to be terrified!
:crack: Yeah, like a rabid animal about to be caged.

No matter where you stand on what is lower/middle/upper class. I think we can agree that someone like Biden or Bernie that grew up poor, didn't go to Ivy League schools, and haven't used their wealth later in life to make things worse for everyone but the very rich, are still someone we would prefer in office over someone like Mittens or Trump. Or even like the Obamas that were still paying off student loans after entering the White House. I get the point of view of wanting lawmakers that have had more recent experience of knowing what it's like to struggle, and I agree that those people are important to have in the system. What I don't want is someone who has NEVER known what it's like.
Pretty much agree on this. Oh, I had no idea The Obama's we're still paying off their student loans when they entered the WH!

Trump wrote off 70 grand in haircuts. 70 grand for that mess? He should demand a complete refund, let alone a tax deduction.
Bwaahahahaaaa! :lol: :applaud:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/...-enormous-debts-could-be-running-the-country/

It really is the stuff of nightmares.

He has to come up with over $400 million to pay off his personal debts over the next couple of years.

There are a lot of failures at the level of the media, but not following the Trump $ is probably the biggest. Now that the tax returns are in the open, let's see who is going to be calling on those debts and why they hell they would have loaned him $ when no other institution would.
Yeah, really! Didn't it turn out that some of or all of
<sp!> :lol: Deustche Bank to be very corrupt? And perhaps a Russian oligarch or two?

Failure of the media, yes, but bigger failure of Congressional Democrats for not subpoenaing them the day after they took control of the House (as well as of Robert Mueller for not going after this).

Someone from Mueller's Team just has a book out.

i realize that all of us have bad moments, and that many people suffer from mental illness, and none of us would want these moments captured on camera and broadcast around the world for all to see.

but none of us held a super-spreader event in Oklahoma that got a bunch of people including Herman Cain killed, nor have we grifted money off of a campaign for Individual 1 who owes $420m+ to dictators.

these are objectively bad people.

so please enjoy watching Brad Parscale being Florida Man.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...qIU76KcBNAyRwIZhTsTcBC9S820GXbkLCI6LAyH1nREjw

also, imagine how this would have gone down were he Black. or just not rich and white and well-known.
Kinda nice to see a drumpgist's white man being tackled by the police.

As for the other "kinds" of people - uh, oh - probably much worse to the most ultimately bad outcome! :(


Guess I'll see youse guys, and gals tomorrow night. Stay safe!
 
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our dear old friend orgopooprah has been trying to convince "the other forum" that trump is going to win again (although that doesn't seem too hard, considering the collective IQ there is approximately the sum of the ages of my two cats) because the betting markets are taking money in for trump in PA recently, because, you know, betting markets are geared to predict the actual outcome of the event, rather than to make money for the bookies, apparently.



they are a pretty stupid bunch, that's for sure. maybe we need a "Stupidity Scale" where we grade the comments on how stupid they actually are.
 
I feel like if Biden repeatedly asked Trump to whom he owes $421 in his personal capacity, Trump would lose it on stage. Literally bring it up every 10 minutes or so. You know he'd take the bait.
 
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