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Old 10-04-2020, 10:03 AM   #761
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New NBC national poll

Biden +14

Two things of note. This is Registered Voters, not Likely voters. That means, that a more accurate Likely voter result would probably be Biden +12.

This was taken post debate, and 2 of the 3 days of post Covid result.

Also, Ispos poll, taken fully post Covid result is at Biden +10. This is up one point from the Ispos poll taken post-debate but pre Covid result.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:07 AM   #762
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NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has Biden up +14 nationally and Trump losing with men 50+ which is just about the worst subgroup to be down with if you're him.

Oops, didn't see womanfish post above.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:08 AM   #763
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I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:08 AM   #764
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Any way you slice it, Trump so far has not gotten a "sympathy bump". But more polling remains to be seen.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:10 AM   #765
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I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.
I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:14 AM   #766
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I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.
Even if it were just, like, the Trump's and Hope Hicks? Yea I don't think that's going to do it.

Hypothetically speaking - if there were an attack of some sort? That might do the trick. But the president getting the virus he spent most of the year downplaying? After mocking Biden's mask wearing WHILE HAVING THE FUCKING VIRUS???

If you're sympathetic to that, your loyalties were never really in doubt to begin with.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:20 AM   #767
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US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.


I hear you. But counterpoint: people are dumb.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:27 AM   #768
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People are dumb and in this case it actually works in our favour.

What are they supposed to be rallying for? A president who has caught a virus which according to them causes minor sniffles? A president who is hospitalized under the false pretense of a virus so he can plan on arresting Hillary Clinton and personally dismantle 5G towers? A GOP who is so inept that due to its own recklessness can't field the votes for a SCOTUS nominee?

Combine that with the notion that we may have a week or two or three where this asshole isn't braying on every TV channel and instead the reporting is centred on yet another and yet another GOP operative to come down with the sniffles.
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:42 AM   #769
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Setting aside the Q theories

The campaign and GOP narrative is

Trump risked his life for the American people. He got sick, recovered, and working harder than any human ever has.

He’s showing us that we too need to go out, take our mask off, and get back to Americaning like the good old days.

Trump showed us how!!!

One thing with Trump and everyone who’s associated with them, the worst is yet to come. They’re acting like this is the flu. You catch it, for a few days you feel bad, then you’re back to the exact same life you had before.

Donald is not out of the weeds yet. Covid is slower to move than the flu, and once it really hits you just never know. They’re acting like he’s fully recovered but I’m not sure he gets out of bed for another few weeks.

I am not wishing harm on him at all. My hope is that it would infect his brain and release empathy and compassion. Not sure that’s realistic.

Instead my hope is that the nation can see that these clowns haven’t had, and won’t do any plan to protect the rest of us. New leadership is necessary to have any chance of moving on from this.

And we’re not even at the second wave yet. Europe and Israel are both hitting the beginning of theirs now and minus Israel Europe seemed to have their shit together.

Again, with Trump....the worst is yet to come
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Old 10-04-2020, 10:45 AM   #770
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I hear you. But counterpoint: people are dumb.
Touché
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:13 AM   #771
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YouGov state polls

OH - tied
PA - Biden +7 Matching Sienna's latest number and SurveyMonkeys (yeah I know surveymonkey sucks, but they may have gotten this one right)
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:31 AM   #772
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He sure as fuck isn’t doing any real work though.
Just like any other day that ends in "Y".
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:33 AM   #773
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I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.
With normal folks it definitely sinks.
With his base, it soars to the heavens. Unless he takes a turn for the worse(and it is publicly known), this will work in his favor.
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:43 AM   #774
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With normal folks it definitely sinks.

With his base, it soars to the heavens. Unless he takes a turn for the worse(and it is publicly known), this will work in his favor.
Yea but his base is going to support him and believe ridiculous bullshit about Biden no matter what
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:50 AM   #775
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I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.
This. Like I said before, compare this to the professionalism Biden's currently showing, and the choice is pretty clear.

Plus, people have been pretty well tired of this administration and ready to get them out of here as it is. Seeing this complete clusterfuck is only going to further motivate them to make that happen. We've already seen how little we can trust them with this pandemic based on how it's affected the country, and now we're seeing they can't even handle it within the White House. And we're supposed to trust them to handle anything else?

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I am not wishing harm on him at all. My hope is that it would infect his brain and release empathy and compassion. Not sure that’s realistic.
'SNL" made a joke last night about the idea of this being Trump's Ebenezer Scrooge moment, with the three ghosts coming to visit him at night. I'd been thinking a similar thing for a while . But honestly, I'm not exactly holding my breath on that happening.
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Old 10-04-2020, 11:55 AM   #776
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US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

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Yea but his base is going to support him and believe ridiculous bullshit about Biden no matter what


But as we’ve seen in here, the amount of people who strive to create permission structures — BUT WHAT ABOUT BIDEN PACKING THE COURT?!?!?!??!? THEY SAYIN’ THINGS ABOUT AMY’S CHILDREN!!!!!!! — in order to explain to themselves a vote for someone they know is objectively stupid and monstrous, because they hate the other side so much, is perhaps vanishing.

These structures are vanishing.
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Old 10-04-2020, 12:17 PM   #777
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The GOP have every right to confirm a new justice right now. Elections have consequences. Had Mitch not fucked over Obama by blocking federal judges and the SC Garland nomination, probably wouldn’t be as big of an uproar (and the structure / balance of court would be different).

But the GOP need to accept their own medicine if Dems end up winning the senate and presidency and go on to expand and pack the court.

Elections have consequences
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Old 10-04-2020, 12:17 PM   #778
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https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/s...824855040?s=21
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Old 10-04-2020, 12:34 PM   #779
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The GOP have every right to confirm a new justice right now. Elections have consequences. Had Mitch not fucked over Obama by blocking federal judges and the SC Garland nomination, probably wouldn’t be as big of an uproar (and the structure / balance of court would be different).

But the GOP need to accept their own medicine if Dems end up winning the senate and presidency and go on to expand and pack the court.

Elections have consequences
Right now its a tie in the Senate Judiciary committee has two gop members out. meaning they couldn't move Barrett forward in the process for 14 days if they quarantine. I'm now seeing reporting that they are going to break CDC rules and only quarantine for 10 days. So yeah, we see just how terrible these people are.
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Old 10-04-2020, 12:38 PM   #780
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Interesting numbers. ok. crazy number discrepancy here.

Biden leads in national polls since the debate:

+14
+13
+10
+10
+9
+7
+3
+2

So the average of those is 8.5 for Biden.

If you would remove what could be called outliers (14,13,2,3) The average is Biden +9 post debate.
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