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Old 09-28-2020, 02:55 PM   #181
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i realize that all of us have bad moments, and that many people suffer from mental illness, and none of us would want these moments captured on camera and broadcast around the world for all to see.

but none of us held a super-spreader event in Oklahoma that got a bunch of people including Herman Cain killed, nor have we grifted money off of a campaign for Individual 1 who owes $420m+ to dictators.

these are objectively bad people.

so please enjoy watching Brad Parscale being Florida Man.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/q...LCI6LAyH1nREjw



also, imagine how this would have gone down were he Black. or just not rich and white and well-known.
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Old 09-28-2020, 03:48 PM   #182
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Report from the UK about the targeting of blacks by the Trump campaign to deter them from voting. They drew from a database of 192 million Americans that categorized them by their perceived voting preference and sent targeted ads their way through Facebook.

They're basically doing the same shit now by muddying the waters with voter fraud/faithless elector hand-wringing to convince people that voting doesn't matter.
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:12 PM   #183
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Report from the UK about the targeting of blacks by the Trump campaign to deter them from voting. They drew from a database of 192 million Americans that categorized them by their perceived voting preference and sent targeted ads their way through Facebook.

They're basically doing the same shit now by muddying the waters with voter fraud/faithless elector hand-wringing to convince people that voting doesn't matter.
I was just about to post this. This is pretty perfect point for Biden to talk about on the eve of the debate that Trump views black voters as were labeled "deterrence" and tried to stop them from voting.
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:15 PM   #184
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^ perhaps why Parscale was suicidal yesterday
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:18 PM   #185
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I was just about to post this. This is pretty perfect point for Biden to talk about on the eve of the debate that Trump views black voters as were labeled "deterrence" and tried to stop them from voting.


Probably best to let Kamala do the talking, since Uncle Joe already put his foot in his mouth re: ya ain’t black.
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:31 PM   #186
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Probably best to let Kamala do the talking, since Uncle Joe already put his foot in his mouth re: ya ain’t black.
Not a bad idea. LOL
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:40 PM   #187
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I know that polls are tight, and people like to go back and compare with 2016, and say, Hillary was up in the polls too!!! This is disaster, it's too close!
Well, This may help. It's not just about the margin, although Biden has better margins than Clinton had at this point, but it's very much about the total share of the vote.

Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.

ABC/Wapo poll of PA coming late tonight. He was up 10 in WI and 8 in MI in their polls a couple days ago. I would love to see a PA +6 or 7...

https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr/statu...68794910642179
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Old 09-28-2020, 04:43 PM   #188
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https://twitter.com/MariaBartiromo/s...21953110888449

Breaking news: NO John durham interim report. No indictments before election - Bartiromo sources.

Wow. So translation. What they found after almost a year of trying was not just totally insufficient to say anything bad about Biden/Obama/Hunter/FBI etc... But it most likely dug up more bad news on Trump. Because they can't even twist what they found to say something bad.
That's the part that gets me the most about the people who are grumpy that Obama/Clinton/Biden/etc. haven't been nailed yet. The GOP are the ones who've been spending years investigating them, be it about Benghazi or the e-mails or the idea that the Russia investigation was solely a way to target Trump or whatever. They opened an investigation into supposed "voter fraud", too. All those investigations ultimately fell flat.

So either the GOP completely sucks at handling investigations...or it's just further proof that at the end of the day, there's really no "there" there and this is just their insane conspiracy nonsense blowing up in their faces.

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ook-rick-gates

Of course he did.
And they say a picture is worth 1,000 words..."blech", "incest" and "gross" have to be the first 3 on the list.
On the one hand, I shouldn't be surprised. On the other hand....oof.

Another law we should implement if we get Trump and his family out of here? Stop with the family dynasties in politics. Yes, this might mean that some good, responsible family members of those who've held office won't be able to do so, but it also means no Trump family members will ever darken the White House doorstep again, either.

So. Between that news, the lack of anything on the Democrats, the tax stuff, and the UK's story about trying to deter black voters, Trump's having quite the bad day, ain't he?

Tomorrow night's debate could be veeeeeeeeery interesting. I'm gonna bring snacks.
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Old 09-28-2020, 05:14 PM   #189
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I know that polls are tight, and people like to go back and compare with 2016, and say, Hillary was up in the polls too!!! This is disaster, it's too close!
Well, This may help. It's not just about the margin, although Biden has better margins than Clinton had at this point, but it's very much about the total share of the vote.

Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.

ABC/Wapo poll of PA coming late tonight. He was up 10 in WI and 8 in MI in their polls a couple days ago. I would love to see a PA +6 or 7...

https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr/statu...68794910642179

Also, aren’t this year’s polls adjusted to sample a correct allotment of different types of voters? It would seem, based on that change, that the difference is even more striking from 2016.
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Old 09-28-2020, 05:32 PM   #190
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ABC/Wapo poll of PA coming late tonight. He was up 10 in WI and 8 in MI in their polls a couple days ago. I would love to see a PA +6 or 7...

https://twitter.com/bwbensonjr/statu...68794910642179


here's a PA +9, coming in hot, from NYT/Siena.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/u...ania-poll.html
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Old 09-28-2020, 05:35 PM   #191
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also, one would think that holding the SCOTUS pick until after the election would help Trump? that it would energize his base? that it would give them a reason to go to the polls and vote? sure, it will do the same for the D's, but better to have that energy than not? like if he gets a 6-3 majority, what else is there to live for if you are a single issue abortion voter?

i can only think it's because they all think that his electoral goose is cooked, and their only prayer is chaos and a SCOTUS vote like B vs G, or that the 6-3 court will be the lasting legacy of the awful, awful Trump years.
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:47 PM   #192
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Biden is just about at 50% or over in over half of "swing states" and not to much lower 47%ish in the remaining ones. Biden's share of the vote is anywhere from 4 to 9 points greater than Clinton in state polls. It also means with about 5-6% undecided, Trump would need to win all of them (except maybe FL) in order to win the Electoral College. And as of now, polling shows that Biden is preferred by undecideds.
As soon as a candidate hits around 52-53%, barring something shocking, it's basically a done deal because the number of undecideds usually becomes negligible.
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:48 PM   #193
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also, one would think that holding the SCOTUS pick until after the election would help Trump? that it would energize his base? that it would give them a reason to go to the polls and vote?
No - they need him to step up and not be a super accommodating derogatory term for ladyparts like W was.
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:53 PM   #194
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As soon as a candidate hits around 52-53%, barring something shocking, it's basically a done deal because the number of undecideds usually becomes negligible.

Assuming that’s a repeated thing, yeah. And that’s the nice thing about Biden’s numbers. Lead margin aside, his numbers are more commonly touching the high 40s and low 50s, whereas a lot of Clinton’s leads were still true vote percentages at the end of the day, but a lot of the gray areas in swing states in fact swung for Trump.
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Old 09-28-2020, 06:57 PM   #195
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here's a PA +9, coming in hot, from NYT/Siena.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/u...ania-poll.html
Yowza. Hoping we see something similar from ABC later.

This is very interesting from the NYT poll. While there is a shift towards R’s on party ID. Check out these numbers...

Trump only holds a 62 to 23 percent lead among registered Republicans in Philly, its suburbs, or Allegheny County (Pittsburgh+burbs)
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Old 09-28-2020, 07:23 PM   #196
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Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.

Biden is planning a HUGE TV ad buy in Ohio, starting in the next week.
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Old 09-28-2020, 07:43 PM   #197
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Also, aren’t this year’s polls adjusted to sample a correct allotment of different types of voters? It would seem, based on that change, that the difference is even more striking from 2016.
Yeah, most polls are reweighing non college whites in their samples differently this year, so the argument that the polls will be biased against Trump in 2020 is not a particularly strong one. Trump may over perform the polls. Biden is just as likely to over perform the polls.
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Old 09-28-2020, 07:56 PM   #198
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Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.

Biden is planning a HUGE TV ad buy in Ohio, starting in the next week.
It's becoming clear that they're not even trying to win anymore.

At least not at the ballot box.
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Old 09-28-2020, 11:27 PM   #199
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Media buy news.

Trump is cancelling ad flights in Ohio and IA.
Oh, thank god.

ETA: Regarding that article about Pennsylvania..this line gives me hope:

Quote:
The president has virtually no path to a second term without Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.
Incidentally, my sister just moved there this past summer, so may be checking in with her at some point to talk about how things are faring out there.
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Old 09-29-2020, 12:02 AM   #200
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Trump’s ego has been and will continue to be his downfall. Also helps to have spineless sycophants to stroke it 24 hours a day for 3.5 years.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshuaHol...85649620664321
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