US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia

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Most modern day cults are set up for the leader to fleece money and commit sexual assault. But the overall Trump cult bridges the gap. It definitely fleeces, but also borders on death cult, ala Covid.
Q is a straight up death cult. And the overlap between members of the Trump cult and Q is quite large.

Again, this begs the question of what happens to the Republican party. They can't move forward with a moderate candidate anymore. There will be wanna be Trump candidates - Pompeo, Cotton, etc... But they, especially Cotton, don't have the charisma to pull it off.
Is there some major split coming on the right? Conspiracy nut right, and moderate traditional right...
 
But because you didn't stop there..


Again, this begs the question of what happens to the Republican party. They can't move forward with a moderate candidate anymore. There will be wanna be Trump candidates - Pompeo, Cotton, etc... But they, especially Cotton, don't have the charisma to pull it off.
Is there some major split coming on the right? Conspiracy nut right, and moderate traditional right...

I always get confused by this question.

What happens to the republican party? Nothing. It's already happened.

Moderates are gone. Jumped ship. Even conservatives with any sort of backbone, like Boehner, have said the hell with this.

The GOP is the Party of Trump.
 
And it’s scary. We are one election away from these people taking power (or holding on) and once they get it, they won’t give it up without violence
 
I always get confused by this question.

What happens to the republican party? Nothing. It's already happened.

Moderates are gone. Jumped ship. Even conservatives with any sort of backbone, like Boehner, have said the hell with this.

The GOP is the Party of Trump.

Totally agreed.

If there is a third party that eventually emerges - and I mean a legitimate third party, not the cacophony of weirdos who run due to their own vanity - it will either be something akin to the Greens, progressive on environment, but more conservative/libertarian on economic and social matters or the leftist Dems split into their own socialist democrats with the remainder of the D party encompassing the George Conways and Romneys of the world.
 
But because you didn't stop there..




I always get confused by this question.

What happens to the republican party? Nothing. It's already happened.

Moderates are gone. Jumped ship. Even conservatives with any sort of backbone, like Boehner, have said the hell with this.

The GOP is the Party of Trump.

You make a good point. But I think that there is potential for something more complicated to happen.

A recent poll had 35% of Republicans respond that Qanon is "Mostly true" That is... a LOT.

But lets just say that there are 10% of voters that are the hardcore cult, and the other 90% of Trump Republicans are not wanting to really go over to the - hybrid lizard people are trafficking kids for sex and eat their body parts, and Tom Hanks is warehousing women and impregnating them to extract the babies brain juices. They just aren't ready to go that far.

But 10% are all in. They form a whole new third party. Let's say they ironically call it The Truth Party" 10% would be the highest support of a third party ever, except Perot for a while. Definitely enough to completely destroy any chances of Trump Republicans to win a national election.

Then you have the scraps that are left over. The Never Trumper repubs that are joined with Dems this year. The Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, David Jolly types. Maybe 5% or so of the original Rep party. I assume they would have no choice than to become fulltime Dems.

So would a split really happen..?. Not sure. I guess if the Trump Reps nominate a crazy enough person in 2024, or Don Jr. or Ivanka if they aren't in prison, maybe the Q's would stay on board.

Sure it's a bit of a stretch. But I'm trying to reconcile seeing Steve Schmidt and George Conway, or even a Lisa Morkowski or Romney in the same party as the woman that BEAL shared the link about.
 
Sure it's a bit of a stretch. But I'm trying to reconcile seeing Steve Schmidt and George Conway, or even a Lisa Morkowski or Romney in the same party as the woman that BEAL shared the link about.

The problem is, it's just as hard to see them in the same party as AOC, Bernie, etc.
 
The problem is, it's just as hard to see them in the same party as AOC, Bernie, etc.



I feel as if common ground could be found, perhaps surprisingly, on environmentalism.

Anyone who isn’t dependent upon oil money can see what’s happening and that we are at a crisis point. And preserving what’s left of the environment should actually be a conservative thing to do. They’ll never agree on taxes or even health care, but global warming is such a clear and present danger that it could be a point of unity.
 
I feel as if common ground could be found, perhaps surprisingly, on environmentalism.

Anyone who isn’t dependent upon oil money can see what’s happening and that we are at a crisis point. And preserving what’s left of the environment should actually be a conservative thing to do. They’ll never agree on taxes or even health care, but global warming is such a clear and present danger that it could be a point of unity.

Anyone with that mindset would migrate to the Green party, if a strong one emerged. The Greens are very progressive on environment but quite libertarian/conservative economically and basically agnostic on social issues.
 
I think the most likely scenario - if trump loses - is that the republican party as we know it goes the way of the Whigs, and the Democratic Party eventually splits in half, wit the moderate wing swallowing the never trumpers and whatever's left.

Then you'll have a progressive party, a centrist party and a fringe hard right that causes issues but has limited power.
 
Reminder. Cults are very often dangerous things. Just incredible to think that a cult could have be nurtured and created that encompasses nearly a third of the country's population. Absolutely mind-boggling and ripe for psychological study.

The thing that most confounds me about people's diehard support of Trump is...why him, of all people? Lord knows he's far from the first racist/sexist/xenophobic person to be in politics, and he's certainly not the first corrupt person in office, either. He's also not the first politician who's told people things they wanted to hear, no matter how untrue they were. And so on.

But while other politicians like him have had their supporters, they never seemed to develop this insane cult-ish fervor around them of the sort that Trump has. What the hell is it about him specifically that has people so hellbent on following him to the bitter end?

As for the talk of QAnon and such, I don't know if this could even be possible, but honestly, whenever we do get actual competent people back in office, if such a thing were possible, I'd be okay with them passing some sort of new law or something that states that if you belong to or support some kind of wacko cult like that one (or Scientology, or things of that sort), or are part of or support white supremacist/neo-Nazi groups and organizations, you should be barred from ever being allowed to run for any kind of political office. Just stop these people from even getting their foot in the door to begin with.
 
The thing that most confounds me about people's diehard support of Trump is...why him, of all people? Lord knows he's far from the first racist/sexist/xenophobic person to be in politics, and he's certainly not the first corrupt person in office, either. He's also not the first politician who's told people things they wanted to hear, no matter how untrue they were. And so on.

But while other politicians like him have had their supporters, they never seemed to develop this insane cult-ish fervor around them of the sort that Trump has. What the hell is it about him specifically that has people so hellbent on following him to the bitter end?

As for the talk of QAnon and such, I don't know if this could even be possible, but honestly, whenever we do get actual competent people back in office, if such a thing were possible, I'd be okay with them passing some sort of new law or something that states that if you belong to or support some kind of wacko cult like that one (or Scientology, or things of that sort), or are part of or support white supremacist/neo-Nazi groups and organizations, you should be barred from ever being allowed to run for any kind of political office. Just stop these people from even getting their foot in the door to begin with.

Well, I think there are many factors here. Interestingly, a good place to start are some of the documentaries that have come out lately. Netflix - Bikram: Yogi, Guru, Predator ... Netflix - Wild, Wild Country... HBO - The Vow... Netflix - Jeffrey Epstein, Filthy Rich, and obviously anything to do with Scientology.
But what do most have in common? The people leading the cult, like Jim Jones are sociopaths, or even more likely are clinical narcissist/sociopaths. They have a particular skill in being able to both easily con people, and their lack of any true empathy or guilt, coupled with a sense of grandiosity completely consumes people that are susceptible to these cons. Listening to Epstein and Bikram speak, is like a mirror image of Trump. It's uncanny and surreal.

Then couple this again with a population with simmering racist attitudes that have been held back by societal norms/expectations, made worse by a successful black president for 8 years, that just ate away at them.

Then double it up again with Trump being a "known" quantity from years of press coverage and TV, all from superficial media touting how successful and powerful he is.

Then there is human nature. The stronger people push back at what you believe in, the stronger your belief gets. And you see that the only way that people usually leave a cult, or snap out of their brainwashed state, is if something happens to them personally that suddenly opens their eyes. ie. a death from Covid, having an LGBTQ child that has lost rights in some way, you're a manufacturing worker that gets your plant shut down that Trump promised he would save, you have a child or sibling in the military that Trump calls a sucker or loser, etc...
But beyond that. They are IN. And no one can shake them. Two main driving factors. They revel not in Trump's successes legislatively, because that would be insane. But they revel in the fact that Trump trolls the media and owns the libs. He spits in the face of the people that they feel look down on them. And second, he legitimizes their racist hate and fear. Something no other president or candidate has done quite so outwardly, while also possessing the sociopath/narcissistic personality to sell it.

As for your last portion. I think we can all agree that's a slippery slope that no one wants to go down. It is up to voters to purge any whack jobs. I would say we did ok up until these last 4 years. But I hope that we can rest with some sense that the majority of Americans still side with decency, and will keep flare ups of bat shit crazy at bay.
 
Latest NY/Sienna polls show Biden withstanding Trump’s LAW AND ORDER onslaught, and I believe the polls were done before the Woodward book.

MN: Biden 50, Trump 41
NH: Biden 45, Trump 42
NV: Biden 46, Trump 42
WI: Biden 48, Trump 43


So, NH feels a little close. As does NV, but Dems usually outperform there compared to polls, and it’s a super weird state that’s basically Vegas, Reno, and vast stretches of emptiness.

Other takeaways from the polls (taken from Nate Cohn):


The polls suggest that a lot of the Trump law and order pivot succeeded... but with a big catch.
--Voters split on whether law and order > COVID to their vote
--They say Biden *supports* defunding the police
--They say Biden hasn't done enough to condemn violent riots, by a lot


The “defund” movement is so colossally politically stupid. It sucks thar Biden/Harris is going to have to waste time explaining that, but here we are. My guess is “Kamala is a cop” will actually be politically useful to the ticket — because voters who vote in swing states don’t want their cities to burn, and notions like “riots are the language of the oppressed” really isn’t going to go very far with this particular population.

Time to Sister Souljah some shit, like I’ve been saying, but also know that this feels — absent some urban rioting in the next 6 weeks — like about as well as Trump is going to do. Once focus goes back to the virus, as it did this week, he has no chance.

I hope.
 
Latest NY/Sienna polls show Biden withstanding Trump’s LAW AND ORDER onslaught, and I believe the polls were done before the Woodward book.

MN: Biden 50, Trump 41
NH: Biden 45, Trump 42
NV: Biden 46, Trump 42
WI: Biden 48, Trump 43


So, NH feels a little close. As does NV, but Dems usually outperform there compared to polls, and it’s a super weird state that’s basically Vegas, Reno, and vast stretches of emptiness.

Other takeaways from the polls (taken from Nate Cohn):


The polls suggest that a lot of the Trump law and order pivot succeeded... but with a big catch.
--Voters split on whether law and order > COVID to their vote
--They say Biden *supports* defunding the police
--They say Biden hasn't done enough to condemn violent riots, by a lot


The “defund” movement is so colossally politically stupid. It sucks thar Biden/Harris is going to have to waste time explaining that, but here we are. My guess is “Kamala is a cop” will actually be politically useful to the ticket — because voters who vote in swing states don’t want their cities to burn, and notions like “riots are the language of the oppressed” really isn’t going to go very far with this particular population.

Time to Sister Souljah some shit, like I’ve been saying, but also know that this feels — absent some urban rioting in the next 6 weeks — like about as well as Trump is going to do. Once focus goes back to the virus, as it did this week, he has no chance.

I hope.



All it takes is for one horrific event (larger scale than WI terrorist) and a lot of these states could/would swing back towards Trump.

This is how messed up things are. We have to provide verbal gymnastics to try and appear as tho we (Dems) don’t support police violence and at the same time want to provide safe communities for all. Yet if we fail to do so, we lose the country for generations to fascism / authoritarian rule.
 
All it takes is for one horrific event (larger scale than WI terrorist) and a lot of these states could/would swing back towards Trump.

This is how messed up things are. We have to provide verbal gymnastics to try and appear as tho we (Dems) don’t support police violence and at the same time want to provide safe communities for all. Yet if we fail to do so, we lose the country for generations to fascism / authoritarian rule.



It sucks, but it’s also absolutely not all that out of line to not want someone to burn down your city, no matter how awful the precipitating event. It’s

If we could just not burn shit down for the next 6 weeks, all should be ok. And even if something does burn down, it should still probably be ok. And Biden/Harris have to make the distinction between peaceful protests and rioters, because Trump will conflate and conflate and conflate.

It’s truly jaw dropping how I see people on social media literally parroting their talking points — “police violence is bad, but look at these hellhole cities with Democrat mayors,” despite the fact that it’s almost never been a better time to live in an American city — but this is, again, where we are.
 
Terrifying indeed, which is why I’m not getting hopes up and not reading too much into the numbers, despite believing in them.

The difference, though, as I always tell myself, is those were perceived as attacks on his past. People care more about their present right now. The booming economy scares me because it’ll get people to vote for him despite record unemployment etc, but his response to Covid is the part that reassures me. The first thing people will ask themselves when they go to vote is how their quality of life is right now. Wealthier people who have money on the stock market are going to not feel guilty voting for him, but everyone else I imagine will have second thoughts.
 
Before anyone feels too bad. There a couple things to keep in mind.

Comey made the Clinton email announcement 11 days before the last election. This was key in her defeat. Pounding an already wounded and shaky candidate.
Also. Please remember that most polls in 2016 were NOT weighted for education. This gave an average 3 point bias towards Clinton at the time. Almost all pollsters have adjusted for this now.
For example, the latest NH poll from Sienna/NYT had Biden up 3. Nate Cohen said that if it weren’t weighted for education, it would have been Biden +7.
So at least I believe the numbers were seeing, or at least their averages are going to be much more accurate this time around.

That means that Biden still has an out of the MOE lead in WI, MI, PA, NV, AZ and MN. And he’s ahead slightly less in NC and FL. He’s also a point and a half or less behind in OH, TX, and GA.

And remember that the Trump campaign is low on money, and we haven’t even had our FIRST debate!

Take heart. Volunteer, donate and get your friends to vote early.
 
I think it’s clear they it’s not enough to discredit Trump. He’s already discredited to all those outside the cult. The thing to do not is to focus on small but meaningful issues to present ways to make people’s lives better — healthcare. That’s what they did in 2018. He can’t just be Not Trump. He has to be Better Than Trump.
 
I think it’s clear they it’s not enough to discredit Trump. He’s already discredited to all those outside the cult. The thing to do not is to focus on small but meaningful issues to present ways to make people’s lives better — healthcare. That’s what they did in 2018. He can’t just be Not Trump. He has to be Better Than Trump.



Agreed entirely.
 
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