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Old 09-11-2020, 04:11 PM   #701
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I feel as if common ground could be found, perhaps surprisingly, on environmentalism.

Anyone who isn’t dependent upon oil money can see what’s happening and that we are at a crisis point. And preserving what’s left of the environment should actually be a conservative thing to do. They’ll never agree on taxes or even health care, but global warming is such a clear and present danger that it could be a point of unity.
Anyone with that mindset would migrate to the Green party, if a strong one emerged. The Greens are very progressive on environment but quite libertarian/conservative economically and basically agnostic on social issues.
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Old 09-11-2020, 04:15 PM   #702
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I think the most likely scenario - if trump loses - is that the republican party as we know it goes the way of the Whigs, and the Democratic Party eventually splits in half, wit the moderate wing swallowing the never trumpers and whatever's left.

Then you'll have a progressive party, a centrist party and a fringe hard right that causes issues but has limited power.
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Old 09-11-2020, 07:19 PM   #703
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Looks like Trump just confessed to using "performance enhancing drugs".

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1304472674375262208
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Old 09-11-2020, 07:25 PM   #704
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Speaking of the Green Party.

This is why I have said many times, that I just don't trust what will happen in WI. The state legislature is packed with intensely slimy republicans.

And so it begins

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1304517812355031040
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Old 09-11-2020, 07:49 PM   #705
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https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status...095478784?s=21

My favorite quote of the day
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Old 09-11-2020, 07:50 PM   #706
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Speaking of the Green Party.

This is why I have said many times, that I just don't trust what will happen in WI. The state legislature is packed with intensely slimy republicans.

And so it begins

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1304517812355031040


https://twitter.com/slate/status/130...901494272?s=21
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Old 09-11-2020, 11:37 PM   #707
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Reminder. Cults are very often dangerous things. Just incredible to think that a cult could have be nurtured and created that encompasses nearly a third of the country's population. Absolutely mind-boggling and ripe for psychological study.
The thing that most confounds me about people's diehard support of Trump is...why him, of all people? Lord knows he's far from the first racist/sexist/xenophobic person to be in politics, and he's certainly not the first corrupt person in office, either. He's also not the first politician who's told people things they wanted to hear, no matter how untrue they were. And so on.

But while other politicians like him have had their supporters, they never seemed to develop this insane cult-ish fervor around them of the sort that Trump has. What the hell is it about him specifically that has people so hellbent on following him to the bitter end?

As for the talk of QAnon and such, I don't know if this could even be possible, but honestly, whenever we do get actual competent people back in office, if such a thing were possible, I'd be okay with them passing some sort of new law or something that states that if you belong to or support some kind of wacko cult like that one (or Scientology, or things of that sort), or are part of or support white supremacist/neo-Nazi groups and organizations, you should be barred from ever being allowed to run for any kind of political office. Just stop these people from even getting their foot in the door to begin with.
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Old 09-12-2020, 01:05 AM   #708
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The thing that most confounds me about people's diehard support of Trump is...why him, of all people? Lord knows he's far from the first racist/sexist/xenophobic person to be in politics, and he's certainly not the first corrupt person in office, either. He's also not the first politician who's told people things they wanted to hear, no matter how untrue they were. And so on.

But while other politicians like him have had their supporters, they never seemed to develop this insane cult-ish fervor around them of the sort that Trump has. What the hell is it about him specifically that has people so hellbent on following him to the bitter end?

As for the talk of QAnon and such, I don't know if this could even be possible, but honestly, whenever we do get actual competent people back in office, if such a thing were possible, I'd be okay with them passing some sort of new law or something that states that if you belong to or support some kind of wacko cult like that one (or Scientology, or things of that sort), or are part of or support white supremacist/neo-Nazi groups and organizations, you should be barred from ever being allowed to run for any kind of political office. Just stop these people from even getting their foot in the door to begin with.
Well, I think there are many factors here. Interestingly, a good place to start are some of the documentaries that have come out lately. Netflix - Bikram: Yogi, Guru, Predator ... Netflix - Wild, Wild Country... HBO - The Vow... Netflix - Jeffrey Epstein, Filthy Rich, and obviously anything to do with Scientology.
But what do most have in common? The people leading the cult, like Jim Jones are sociopaths, or even more likely are clinical narcissist/sociopaths. They have a particular skill in being able to both easily con people, and their lack of any true empathy or guilt, coupled with a sense of grandiosity completely consumes people that are susceptible to these cons. Listening to Epstein and Bikram speak, is like a mirror image of Trump. It's uncanny and surreal.

Then couple this again with a population with simmering racist attitudes that have been held back by societal norms/expectations, made worse by a successful black president for 8 years, that just ate away at them.

Then double it up again with Trump being a "known" quantity from years of press coverage and TV, all from superficial media touting how successful and powerful he is.

Then there is human nature. The stronger people push back at what you believe in, the stronger your belief gets. And you see that the only way that people usually leave a cult, or snap out of their brainwashed state, is if something happens to them personally that suddenly opens their eyes. ie. a death from Covid, having an LGBTQ child that has lost rights in some way, you're a manufacturing worker that gets your plant shut down that Trump promised he would save, you have a child or sibling in the military that Trump calls a sucker or loser, etc...
But beyond that. They are IN. And no one can shake them. Two main driving factors. They revel not in Trump's successes legislatively, because that would be insane. But they revel in the fact that Trump trolls the media and owns the libs. He spits in the face of the people that they feel look down on them. And second, he legitimizes their racist hate and fear. Something no other president or candidate has done quite so outwardly, while also possessing the sociopath/narcissistic personality to sell it.

As for your last portion. I think we can all agree that's a slippery slope that no one wants to go down. It is up to voters to purge any whack jobs. I would say we did ok up until these last 4 years. But I hope that we can rest with some sense that the majority of Americans still side with decency, and will keep flare ups of bat shit crazy at bay.
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Old 09-12-2020, 10:46 AM   #709
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US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia

Latest NY/Sienna polls show Biden withstanding Trump’s LAW AND ORDER onslaught, and I believe the polls were done before the Woodward book.

MN: Biden 50, Trump 41
NH: Biden 45, Trump 42
NV: Biden 46, Trump 42
WI: Biden 48, Trump 43


So, NH feels a little close. As does NV, but Dems usually outperform there compared to polls, and it’s a super weird state that’s basically Vegas, Reno, and vast stretches of emptiness.

Other takeaways from the polls (taken from Nate Cohn):


The polls suggest that a lot of the Trump law and order pivot succeeded... but with a big catch.
--Voters split on whether law and order > COVID to their vote
--They say Biden *supports* defunding the police
--They say Biden hasn't done enough to condemn violent riots, by a lot


The “defund” movement is so colossally politically stupid. It sucks thar Biden/Harris is going to have to waste time explaining that, but here we are. My guess is “Kamala is a cop” will actually be politically useful to the ticket — because voters who vote in swing states don’t want their cities to burn, and notions like “riots are the language of the oppressed” really isn’t going to go very far with this particular population.

Time to Sister Souljah some shit, like I’ve been saying, but also know that this feels — absent some urban rioting in the next 6 weeks — like about as well as Trump is going to do. Once focus goes back to the virus, as it did this week, he has no chance.

I hope.
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Old 09-12-2020, 12:16 PM   #710
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https://twitter.com/multcoso/status/...314930688?s=21

Because Q dropped shit on the internet saying it’s Antifa / rioters that started the fires, armed militias (white supremacists) are creating their own armed checkpoints.

Imagine if it were black people creating the same checkpoint to protect their community ???
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Old 09-12-2020, 12:20 PM   #711
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Latest NY/Sienna polls show Biden withstanding Trump’s LAW AND ORDER onslaught, and I believe the polls were done before the Woodward book.

MN: Biden 50, Trump 41
NH: Biden 45, Trump 42
NV: Biden 46, Trump 42
WI: Biden 48, Trump 43


So, NH feels a little close. As does NV, but Dems usually outperform there compared to polls, and it’s a super weird state that’s basically Vegas, Reno, and vast stretches of emptiness.

Other takeaways from the polls (taken from Nate Cohn):


The polls suggest that a lot of the Trump law and order pivot succeeded... but with a big catch.
--Voters split on whether law and order > COVID to their vote
--They say Biden *supports* defunding the police
--They say Biden hasn't done enough to condemn violent riots, by a lot


The “defund” movement is so colossally politically stupid. It sucks thar Biden/Harris is going to have to waste time explaining that, but here we are. My guess is “Kamala is a cop” will actually be politically useful to the ticket — because voters who vote in swing states don’t want their cities to burn, and notions like “riots are the language of the oppressed” really isn’t going to go very far with this particular population.

Time to Sister Souljah some shit, like I’ve been saying, but also know that this feels — absent some urban rioting in the next 6 weeks — like about as well as Trump is going to do. Once focus goes back to the virus, as it did this week, he has no chance.

I hope.


All it takes is for one horrific event (larger scale than WI terrorist) and a lot of these states could/would swing back towards Trump.

This is how messed up things are. We have to provide verbal gymnastics to try and appear as tho we (Dems) don’t support police violence and at the same time want to provide safe communities for all. Yet if we fail to do so, we lose the country for generations to fascism / authoritarian rule.
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Old 09-12-2020, 12:38 PM   #712
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All it takes is for one horrific event (larger scale than WI terrorist) and a lot of these states could/would swing back towards Trump.

This is how messed up things are. We have to provide verbal gymnastics to try and appear as tho we (Dems) don’t support police violence and at the same time want to provide safe communities for all. Yet if we fail to do so, we lose the country for generations to fascism / authoritarian rule.


It sucks, but it’s also absolutely not all that out of line to not want someone to burn down your city, no matter how awful the precipitating event. It’s

If we could just not burn shit down for the next 6 weeks, all should be ok. And even if something does burn down, it should still probably be ok. And Biden/Harris have to make the distinction between peaceful protests and rioters, because Trump will conflate and conflate and conflate.

It’s truly jaw dropping how I see people on social media literally parroting their talking points — “police violence is bad, but look at these hellhole cities with Democrat mayors,” despite the fact that it’s almost never been a better time to live in an American city — but this is, again, where we are.
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Old 09-12-2020, 01:26 PM   #713
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I had to clear out like 2 dozen hypodermic needles and a pile of feces just to water my cucumber plant this morning.

City life man... it's a hellhole.
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Old 09-12-2020, 02:14 PM   #714
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I had to clear out like 2 dozen hypodermic needles and a pile of feces just to water my cucumber plant this morning.

City life man... it's a hellhole.
And that's your indoor cuke plant.
Imagine what the outdoor garden must look like.
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Old 09-12-2020, 02:17 PM   #715
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I had to clear out like 2 dozen hypodermic needles and a pile of feces just to water my cucumber plant this morning.

City life man... it's a hellhole.


Where the hale do you live
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Old 09-12-2020, 05:25 PM   #716
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Before anyone feels too good, read this:


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/10/13/p...mpression=true



Terrifying.
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Old 09-12-2020, 05:50 PM   #717
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Terrifying indeed, which is why I’m not getting hopes up and not reading too much into the numbers, despite believing in them.

The difference, though, as I always tell myself, is those were perceived as attacks on his past. People care more about their present right now. The booming economy scares me because it’ll get people to vote for him despite record unemployment etc, but his response to Covid is the part that reassures me. The first thing people will ask themselves when they go to vote is how their quality of life is right now. Wealthier people who have money on the stock market are going to not feel guilty voting for him, but everyone else I imagine will have second thoughts.
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Old 09-12-2020, 07:36 PM   #718
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Before anyone feels too bad. There a couple things to keep in mind.

Comey made the Clinton email announcement 11 days before the last election. This was key in her defeat. Pounding an already wounded and shaky candidate.
Also. Please remember that most polls in 2016 were NOT weighted for education. This gave an average 3 point bias towards Clinton at the time. Almost all pollsters have adjusted for this now.
For example, the latest NH poll from Sienna/NYT had Biden up 3. Nate Cohen said that if it weren’t weighted for education, it would have been Biden +7.
So at least I believe the numbers were seeing, or at least their averages are going to be much more accurate this time around.

That means that Biden still has an out of the MOE lead in WI, MI, PA, NV, AZ and MN. And he’s ahead slightly less in NC and FL. He’s also a point and a half or less behind in OH, TX, and GA.

And remember that the Trump campaign is low on money, and we haven’t even had our FIRST debate!

Take heart. Volunteer, donate and get your friends to vote early.
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Old 09-12-2020, 08:16 PM   #719
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US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia

I think it’s clear they it’s not enough to discredit Trump. He’s already discredited to all those outside the cult. The thing to do not is to focus on small but meaningful issues to present ways to make people’s lives better — healthcare. That’s what they did in 2018. He can’t just be Not Trump. He has to be Better Than Trump.
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Old 09-12-2020, 08:19 PM   #720
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I think it’s clear they it’s not enough to discredit Trump. He’s already discredited to all those outside the cult. The thing to do not is to focus on small but meaningful issues to present ways to make people’s lives better — healthcare. That’s what they did in 2018. He can’t just be Not Trump. He has to be Better Than Trump.


Agreed entirely.
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