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Old 09-08-2020, 03:03 PM   #621
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The sad realty is polls show we're heading to 4 more years of the Orangutan.
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:09 PM   #622
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Maybe I'm just too traumatized by this century's elections, but my immediate assumption is that if you are a Democrat and relying on FLORIDA for a victory, you're in some deep doo doo.
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:16 PM   #623
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He's winning reelection because a) we're dumb as shit, and b) even if he were to lose he'd just cheat his way to victory.

Get used to it.

At which point, honestly, I just quit all social media
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:47 PM   #624
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Biden isn’t going to win Florida. There’s no way those in charge there don’t deliver a Victory for Trump. It’s as corrupt as the President
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:48 PM   #625
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Pretty hot take to question the integrity of respected polls without evidence as to why, regardless of whether or not the performance of their polls leans one way or another.

Not saying it’s beneath 2020 for polls to be falsified in the name of our savior agent orange, but I don’t know why you can’t believe a poll would show fluctuations over time.
I suppose it is. I think it's just odd to see that amount of tightening so quickly. But if FL is really gonna be lean R here at some point, then I would say that the Biden victory would most likely look like WI, MI, AZ Then PA and NC being the likely next in line.

The past week I've read a few different people I respect say that TX and GA are actually more likely to flip than FL. I see they may be right.

The problem I see in FL right now are the 35 to 45 year old white guys. They are way over to Trump. If Biden can keep targeting seniors and get his game going with Latino voters there, he may still be able to scratch back.

The other thing is that polls will fluctuate, so this may start to trend the other way in the coming weeks. Who knows. I think the best picture we will get is probably sometime during the week of the 15th.
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:53 PM   #626
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relax a little. the polls really aren't moving very much.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...-story-socials
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Old 09-08-2020, 04:06 PM   #627
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Yeah, I think declaring Trump winning the whole thing because of one poll, or even a couple polls that are in the MOE, is probably the hot take here.

Is FL tightening? Yes. Is WI? No, is MI? No, Is PA? Yes, Is AZ, No, in fact widening.

Now a few minutes ago, a new FL poll came out, Biden +5, but it is from a more left leaning pollster, so probably still around a point a two closer than 5.
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Old 09-08-2020, 04:09 PM   #628
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I think I first started losing hope of anything other than a Trump victory in 2020 right after the end of the impeachment trial.

This way his winning won't be as crushing as 2016 was, and if I end up being wrong (again) it'll be a bonus.

Anecdotally though all of the people I know who supported trump last time still do today. Every single one.

I don't know a single trump voter who has flipped.
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Old 09-08-2020, 04:33 PM   #629
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I think I first started losing hope of anything other than a Trump victory in 2020 right after the end of the impeachment trial.

This way his winning won't be as crushing as 2016 was, and if I end up being wrong (again) it'll be a bonus.

Anecdotally though all of the people I know who supported trump last time still do today. Every single one.

I don't know a single trump voter who has flipped.


It hardly has anything to do with flipping Trump voters. It has far more to do with who is showing up to vote.
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Old 09-08-2020, 04:52 PM   #630
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Can we count on the youths ???
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Old 09-08-2020, 05:07 PM   #631
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I don't know a single trump voter who has flipped.

anecdotally, i know some white suburban women (friends' mothers) who have flipped. i think the people who dislike Trump hate him much, much more, and i know a lot of people who were Stein idiots or Bernie Or Busters who have seen what they did and feel badly about it and won't make the same mistake again. those few people i know who are Trump voters will all admit to disliking many things about him, but there's always a quick, "... but, OBAMA/HILLARY!" so they've been given an effective enough permission structure to vote for Trump. like, abortion is one. another is, "well, i don't like Trump, but i sure don't want my town of 20,000 to go up in hellfire like Minneapolis." another permission structure. so some of what they are doing is working. what i think D's need to do is reach their voters who stayed home in 2016. the importance of the election must be made clear, and it must be easy for them to vote. this isn't about nonvoters, it's about casual or irregular voters, who only have a passing interest in politics.

the person who's analysis i like the most right now is Rachel Bitecofer.
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Old 09-08-2020, 05:28 PM   #632
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anecdotally, i know some white suburban women (friends' mothers) who have flipped. i think the people who dislike Trump hate him much, much more, and i know a lot of people who were Stein idiots or Bernie Or Busters who have seen what they did and feel badly about it and won't make the same mistake again. those few people i know who are Trump voters will all admit to disliking many things about him, but there's always a quick, "... but, OBAMA/HILLARY!" so they've been given an effective enough permission structure to vote for Trump. like, abortion is one. another is, "well, i don't like Trump, but i sure don't want my town of 20,000 to go up in hellfire like Minneapolis." another permission structure. so some of what they are doing is working. what i think D's need to do is reach their voters who stayed home in 2016. the importance of the election must be made clear, and it must be easy for them to vote. this isn't about nonvoters, it's about casual or irregular voters, who only have a passing interest in politics.



the person who's analysis i like the most right now is Rachel Bitecofer.
We'll see.

In my highly scientific polling of white suburban women in my family... my mother, aunt who has kids and sister who has kids all think Trump's an ass, while my aunt without kids and sister without kids married to a retired LOE I would have to imagine are still on the Trump Train.

Don't even want to discuss my dad...
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Old 09-08-2020, 06:10 PM   #633
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what i'm still struggling to get nervous about is the numbers.

Trump cannot go above 46%. he never has. he's usually around 42%. there are no meaningful third parties this year. he's an incumbent. he cannot and will not break 50%.

yes, the electoral college is fucked up and makes it necessary for a D to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win. but at 46%, you're still losing by 5%+.

i know: Russia. voter suppression. but there are D governors in WI, PA, MI, and even NC.

and there's no Hillary to project evil fantasies upon. Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?

i suppose i can come up with a nightmare scenario where enough uneducated whites tip the scales again in the rust belt, while the diversity and increasingly educated suburbanization of TX, GA, AZ, and NC isn't quite enough to get us there ... but Trump pulled off a miracle last time, with major assists from the Russians and James Comey.

how could he do it again?
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Old 09-08-2020, 06:27 PM   #634
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Can we count on the youths ???


Can you count on your parents being drained from all the screaming and family fights their millennial kids have created?

That should be the real question. It’s the 5% or so of the population that probably said “well whatever” in 2016 that I think you’re just hoping is fed up with Covid and all the commotion (regardless of how they perceive BLM and the left from Fox News). You’re hoping that that 5% of “millennial parents” is just dramatically more likely to just stay the fuck out of it.
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Old 09-08-2020, 08:50 PM   #635
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The Justice Department is now taking over in E. Jean Carroll's rape case as Trump's lawyers and the slippery slope is now a cliff and we're at the bottom of it.
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Old 09-08-2020, 09:01 PM   #636
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Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?

You apparently aren’t familiar with the American pro-life movement. They can gin up rabid hate for ANY candidate who expresses even the slightest hint of pro-choice sentiment. I could introduce you to my parents if you need an example.
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Old 09-08-2020, 11:18 PM   #637
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You apparently aren’t familiar with the American pro-life movement. They can gin up rabid hate for ANY candidate who expresses even the slightest hint of pro-choice sentiment. I could introduce you to my parents if you need an example.


i am, as you'll see in my post about permission structures.

but it's true that i'm not used to "BABY KILLERS!" as an actual term that carries any sort of meaning or credibility. it's about as credible and meaningful as "GOD HATES FAGS" to me.
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Old 09-09-2020, 08:44 AM   #638
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It’s basically a given that we’ll have militias guarding polling stations this November. The media will frame it as a positive tho, “Local citizens volunteer to keep watchful eye out for voter fraud!”
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Old 09-09-2020, 09:06 AM   #639
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There will be voter intimidation at the polls for sure.

The right has had decades of practice at women's health clinics.
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Old 09-09-2020, 11:36 AM   #640
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...723723776?s=21

Hope it comes with a red hat and AR15
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