US Politics XXV: At Least We're Not Australia

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Headache in a Suitcase said:
I don't know a single trump voter who has flipped.
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anecdotally, i know some white suburban women (friends' mothers) who have flipped. i think the people who dislike Trump hate him much, much more, and i know a lot of people who were Stein idiots or Bernie Or Busters who have seen what they did and feel badly about it and won't make the same mistake again. those few people i know who are Trump voters will all admit to disliking many things about him, but there's always a quick, "... but, OBAMA/HILLARY!" so they've been given an effective enough permission structure to vote for Trump. like, abortion is one. another is, "well, i don't like Trump, but i sure don't want my town of 20,000 to go up in hellfire like Minneapolis." another permission structure. so some of what they are doing is working. what i think D's need to do is reach their voters who stayed home in 2016. the importance of the election must be made clear, and it must be easy for them to vote. this isn't about nonvoters, it's about casual or irregular voters, who only have a passing interest in politics.

the person who's analysis i like the most right now is Rachel Bitecofer.
 
Irvine511 said:
anecdotally, i know some white suburban women (friends' mothers) who have flipped. i think the people who dislike Trump hate him much, much more, and i know a lot of people who were Stein idiots or Bernie Or Busters who have seen what they did and feel badly about it and won't make the same mistake again. those few people i know who are Trump voters will all admit to disliking many things about him, but there's always a quick, "... but, OBAMA/HILLARY!" so they've been given an effective enough permission structure to vote for Trump. like, abortion is one. another is, "well, i don't like Trump, but i sure don't want my town of 20,000 to go up in hellfire like Minneapolis." another permission structure. so some of what they are doing is working. what i think D's need to do is reach their voters who stayed home in 2016. the importance of the election must be made clear, and it must be easy for them to vote. this isn't about nonvoters, it's about casual or irregular voters, who only have a passing interest in politics.



the person who's analysis i like the most right now is Rachel Bitecofer.
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We'll see.

In my highly scientific polling of white suburban women in my family... my mother, aunt who has kids and sister who has kids all think Trump's an ass, while my aunt without kids and sister without kids married to a retired LOE I would have to imagine are still on the Trump Train.

Don't even want to discuss my dad... :sigh:
 
what i'm still struggling to get nervous about is the numbers.

Trump cannot go above 46%. he never has. he's usually around 42%. there are no meaningful third parties this year. he's an incumbent. he cannot and will not break 50%.

yes, the electoral college is fucked up and makes it necessary for a D to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win. but at 46%, you're still losing by 5%+.

i know: Russia. voter suppression. but there are D governors in WI, PA, MI, and even NC.

and there's no Hillary to project evil fantasies upon. Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?

i suppose i can come up with a nightmare scenario where enough uneducated whites tip the scales again in the rust belt, while the diversity and increasingly educated suburbanization of TX, GA, AZ, and NC isn't quite enough to get us there ... but Trump pulled off a miracle last time, with major assists from the Russians and James Comey.

how could he do it again?
 
BEAL said:
Can we count on the youths ???
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Can you count on your parents being drained from all the screaming and family fights their millennial kids have created?

That should be the real question. It’s the 5% or so of the population that probably said “well whatever” in 2016 that I think you’re just hoping is fed up with Covid and all the commotion (regardless of how they perceive BLM and the left from Fox News). You’re hoping that that 5% of “millennial parents” is just dramatically more likely to just stay the fuck out of it.
 
Irvine511 said:
Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?
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You apparently aren’t familiar with the American pro-life movement. They can gin up rabid hate for ANY candidate who expresses even the slightest hint of pro-choice sentiment. I could introduce you to my parents if you need an example.
 
Diemen said:
You apparently aren’t familiar with the American pro-life movement. They can gin up rabid hate for ANY candidate who expresses even the slightest hint of pro-choice sentiment. I could introduce you to my parents if you need an example.
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i am, as you'll see in my post about permission structures.

but it's true that i'm not used to "BABY KILLERS!" as an actual term that carries any sort of meaning or credibility. it's about as credible and meaningful as "GOD HATES FAGS" to me.
 
It’s basically a given that we’ll have militias guarding polling stations this November. The media will frame it as a positive tho, “Local citizens volunteer to keep watchful eye out for voter fraud!”
 
There will be voter intimidation at the polls for sure.

The right has had decades of practice at women's health clinics.
 
Irvine511 said:
what i'm still struggling to get nervous about is the numbers.

Trump cannot go above 46%. he never has. he's usually around 42%. there are no meaningful third parties this year. he's an incumbent. he cannot and will not break 50%.

yes, the electoral college is fucked up and makes it necessary for a D to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win. but at 46%, you're still losing by 5%+.

i know: Russia. voter suppression. but there are D governors in WI, PA, MI, and even NC.

and there's no Hillary to project evil fantasies upon. Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?

i suppose i can come up with a nightmare scenario where enough uneducated whites tip the scales again in the rust belt, while the diversity and increasingly educated suburbanization of TX, GA, AZ, and NC isn't quite enough to get us there ... but Trump pulled off a miracle last time, with major assists from the Russians and James Comey.

how could he do it again?
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Rachel Bitcoffer is a great source on Twitter to get some good analysis. I also would highly recommend G. Elliott Morris as probably my favorite poll analyst.

That said, this is a great post. Especially the focus on overall percentage. Right now, Biden is sitting at about 51 and Trump at 43. That is Trump's best number since... the spring. Which makes sense. At this point in the race is when we will start to see consolidation of the undecideds. Trump was never going to stay at 41% til November. But I still think it will be difficult for him to get past 45%. We have around an avg of 4-5% undecided, with about 2-3% of the rest being taken up by third party.

So let's say Trump does well and manages to get to 45% by splitting the rest of the undecideds, and Biden not as well and gets to 52%. (+2-3 third party)

That's about where I see the race narrowing to by late October. My guess is that Biden will be up around 6.5 points. If third party voters end up waning a bit, we may see a bit tighter at 46-52 (+1-2 third party). Either way. As long as Biden has a 5+ point lead, he is in safe territory.

I also think that Biden will do a bit better than expected through the midwest states. I think MI and WI will end up being strong. I think MN will be won by about 4-6 points. And while PA is concerning right now, I think Biden will end up winning a couple points higher than the polls say at that point.
I also think Biden will pull off NC, but only by a point or less, and I am keeping my eye on GA. I think it may be a surprise. I'm hoping we see a Biden win, and if he does pull it off, I'm guessing it will be like MI in 2016 with around 10,000 votes or something.
 
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Do you think releasing these tapes back in March would have saved lives? Or would we still find ourselves at the same spot ?
 
BEAL said:
Do you think releasing these tapes back in March would have saved lives? Or would we still find ourselves at the same spot ?
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Donald Trump is the effect, not the cause unfortunately. Personally, I believe he was already in too deep to be able to lead his pack of followers into any form of responsibility, were they to have to share that responsibility with LiBRulZ
 
I think at least it would have avoided the mask wars we fought in the first two months.
 
It’s amazing how somewhat competent he sounds talking to Bob.

While he is a buffoon, his actions towards covid (and everything) were malicious. It was always about how it would affect him
 
Dr. Fauci: "The president is on a different channel and unfocused in meetings. Rudderless leadership. His attention span is like a minus number. His sole purpose is to get reelected."
 
Just so we're clear. Sitting down for 18 separate interviews that you are aware are being recorded by a journalist, that you know, writes for a living, is now known as a "political hit job"
 
womanfish said:
Just so we're clear. Sitting down for 18 separate interviews that you are aware are being recorded by a journalist, that you know, writes for a living, is now known as a "political hit job"
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Fox’s prime time North Korean lineup is throwing Lady G under the bus for brokering the Woodward interviews.

Because that’s what a cable news host should do — get mad at a Senator for encouraging the president to talk to a reporter.
 
Just a little update on the first mail in ballots.

In NC, ballots went out on Friday the 4th. We had a holiday weekend, and they have received about 1,000 returned ballots by Tuesday the 8th.

I think the best we can hope for from the USPS bullshit, is that almost all voters know that turning the ballot in as early as possible is necessary. Many I think will drop them off instead of mailing, and I think many may even go in person. Also, the earlier they send them back the better for Biden. The more that come in while he is still at a sizable lead nationally and leading in every purple swing states, and nearly tied in a few pink states. Who knows what debates will bring, or if something else comes out of left field that changes the race.

27 states will be sending out ballots in the next 6 to 10 days. Those include GA, MI, MN, PA, TX and WI.
Then almost all the rest about 5-10 days after that.
Even early in person voting starts in less than 2 weeks in some states.
 
Oh, yeah, i forgot. Thank you for Trump reading out the list of possible judges you want to appoint today. Dems never mention it, so thank you for bringing that up for us, and seeing what other nightmares are in store if you remain in office. Oh - and fuck you.
 
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