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Old 08-25-2020, 04:47 PM   #281
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JFC.
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Old 08-25-2020, 05:01 PM   #282
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I've seen a couple of clips of Kimberly Guilfoyle on the morning shows. What the hell was that?
I'm pretty sure I about went deaf listening to that. Ye gods.
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Old 08-25-2020, 05:01 PM   #283
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I did not realize there was such a thing as weapons-grade amphetamines until seeing Don Jr. and the former Mrs. Gavin Newsom yesterday.
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Old 08-25-2020, 05:24 PM   #284
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I can’t decide if I want to take the week off from politics or if I want to watch this dumpster fire.

Decisions, decisions.
Eh, save yourself from the toxicity , and watch the Recap instead.

Democraticunderground poster recommend TLP on YT as the best (vs MSNBC, NPR). I switched to them last night.
They were vicious!!!
I highly recommend!
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Old 08-25-2020, 07:06 PM   #285
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I'm pretty sure I about went deaf listening to that. Ye gods.


I wasn’t watching but I still heard it.
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Old 08-25-2020, 10:02 PM   #286
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https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/st...32819828535297
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Old 08-25-2020, 10:19 PM   #287
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Listening to Eric Trump speak is so cringey. He’s destroying their charades because he doesn’t have the true Trump capability. Sad!
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Old 08-25-2020, 11:31 PM   #288
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One of the (many) reasons the Trump campaign is struggling. They literally have absolutely ZERO moral high ground of any sort to stand on.
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Old 08-26-2020, 12:39 AM   #289
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I’ve decided I can’t even watch the “highlights”.
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Old 08-26-2020, 09:01 AM   #290
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Same. I just read the Times breakdown the next day.
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Old 08-26-2020, 10:35 AM   #291
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https://twitter.com/jysexton/status/...964013056?s=21

They take pride in breaking the law openly. Really no difference between the mafia and the White House at this point.
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Old 08-26-2020, 11:46 AM   #292
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https://twitter.com/telldylan/status...013185537?s=19
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Old 08-26-2020, 11:51 AM   #293
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Seriously.

This is the only card Trump has left to play, so it would be really nice if these people would stop doing his work for him. I have no doubt, as we’ve seen in other cities, that there are white supremacist agitators escalating things, but lord.

And these fucking people are just awful. It’s white people yelling at other white people in a city that’s 50% black and will go 95% for Biden:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md...confrontation/
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Old 08-26-2020, 12:09 PM   #294
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The woman on that bench has the patience of a saint.

Not many people could be surrounded by a hostile crowd, being yelled at, her personal space crushed. And she calmly reacts. Even if she was against the movement (she said she is on their side, just didn't agree with their tactics) I applaud her peace.
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Old 08-26-2020, 12:12 PM   #295
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White supremacist agitators are being given carte blanche to act as pseudo-militias by the police. It just happened last night in Kenosha, and the white supremacists murdered two protesters. This is consistent with the police approach in many cities across the country since the George Floyd protests.

If there is ever to be another civil war in this country, it won't be along borders like the first one. It'll be the police and military against its own citizens, the ones protesting for justice. The police are tasked with protecting property, not people. It's no wonder they find kinship in guys with guns who want to protect some store.
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Old 08-26-2020, 02:32 PM   #296
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Who cares if a poll is an outlier
Here's my issue with outliers that are this far outlying. It takes an average of 9.3 from polls taken August 19 to 25th. And one poll brings it down to 8.3.


YouGov
Biden +9

Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
Trump Biden +1


Ipsos
Biden +7

Change Research
Biden +8

Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group
Biden +11

YouGov
Biden +11

Morning Consult
Biden +10

Léger
Biden +9

I agree that poll average sites like RCP don't mean much since the polls they include are arbitrary and I think they average over 30 days.

But I do they are informative if you look at a group of polls over a week period to see where it stands at that moment in time.
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Old 08-26-2020, 02:43 PM   #297
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Here's my issue with outliers that are this far outlying. It takes an average of 9.3 from polls taken August 19 to 25th. And one poll brings it down to 8.3.





YouGov

Biden+9



Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research

TrumpBiden+1




Ipsos

Biden+7



Change Research

Biden+8



Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group

Biden+11



YouGov

Biden+11



Morning Consult

Biden+10



Léger

Biden+9



I agree that poll average sites like RCP don't mean much since the polls they include are arbitrary and I think they average over 30 days.



But I do they are informative if you look at a group of polls over a week period to see where it stands at that moment in time.




What’s your take on the noise that the polls do seem to be tightening?
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Old 08-26-2020, 03:33 PM   #298
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Why can’t the Dems be good at messaging ?

GOP has

HER EMAILS
BENGAHZI
CROOKED HILLARY
PIZZAGATE
SAVETHEKIDS

And people just flock to it.

Can’t the Dems find something catchy with

IMPEACHMENT
HATCH ACT
180,000 Dead!!
RUSSIAN BOUNTIES

We heard all day long for months how Clinton was lawless and a security threat. Then we get an actual criminal and we can’t frame a message ?
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Old 08-26-2020, 04:37 PM   #299
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Convention gonna be lit tonight
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Old 08-26-2020, 04:48 PM   #300
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What’s your take on the noise that the polls do seem to be tightening?
It's all interesting right now. One thing to keep in mind. Almost all pollsters (good ones) are now weighting for education, when most did not in 2016. This give a little sway towards Trump in the polls this time around.

Second. There hasn't been much real tightening. Live caller polls are still the best regarded, and you saw a big gap from them for over 3 weeks in late July and early August. What we saw was a tightening in national polls from Biden +9.5 down to Biden plus 7.5. Once more live polls came online after Harris and convention, you saw Biden tick back up to 8.5-9+ (until Rasmussen came out today)

Now national polls are fine, and give a sense of the race in general. But even the "tightening" that happened a few weeks ago, was still well within the margin of error. So what we can say, is that Biden is anywhere between 6 and 11ish points ahead.

The main thing that I think is probably worrying the Trump team the most, is the percentage that each candidate is getting. Biden hit over 50% on June 11th, and has held almost a 51% or higher now consistently over the last 2.5 months. Even during the time he trended down. That is hugely important. Trump hasn't been over 43% since June 5th.
That tells us that a lot of "undecideds" made up their mind after the tear gas church thing, and the protests. And they haven't gone back. 43% is a really bad position for Trump to be in, and with far fewer undecideds left, he doesn't have a lot of room to push that number up.

State polls have tightened a bit more, but the polling has been much more erratic on the state polls. So we see WI, FL, and PA tightening to 5 or 6% instead of 7 or 8. We see NC tightening to 1.5 instead of 3.5. Where it would be rough for Biden to pull it off.

The good part is that WI, MI, and PA all have Biden over 50%. NC, GA, TX, FL and AZ do not. And that still gives me heartburn.

I think that the poll watching has been more of a nice distraction up to this point. The real polls will start mid-September, when states actually start to vote and both conventions are done.

The biggest wild card is Covid. Right now, Covid has been pushed out of the media's attention. It feels like people are just ignoring it now. Which will play into Trumps hands, even as almost 1,000 people are still dying each day.

The next thing will be economy. This will be the 4th week that people will have not gotten the extra Federal boost in unemployment. I am one of those people. And things will start to turn fast in the economic numbers if they don't get a deal passed for unemployment.

And then the debates, which i completely forgot about. LOL.

Lots of wildcards. The turnout will be big which benefits Dems. But you will get a lot of Trump 2016 voters that may say they won't vote for him now that will end up finding some excuse to vote for him this time. On the flip side, Trump has lost huge swaths of elderly, women, suburbanites, Asain voters, vets and military, the list goes on.

I think by October 15th the race will have already been won or lost. Half the states will have been sending in mail ins, or started early voting. Minds will be made up.
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