I don't buy into this one completely. Yeah, of course it's Trump's plan to slow it down to cause doubt and raise chances for legal fights. But for the most part, I don't think it will effect the election night count as drastically as is being freaked out about.
So lets just say we have 12 swing states. and I'm being somewhat generous with that estimate by including OH, IA, NV, GA, TX
So the results from the other 38 states are pretty much foregone conclusions.
After that, swing state counting for mail in ballots:
First, all states verify ballots upon receipt, meaning that the mail in's aren't held up by procedure and verification, they are ready to be counted like any other ballot.
AZ - starts counting before election day
CO - starts counting before election day (yes, not a swing state)
NC - starts counting before election day
OH - starts counting before election day
TX - starts counting before election day, but depends on size of district, smaller districts get counted at 7am on election day
WI - starts counting at 7am election day
PA - starts counting at 7am election day
GA - starts counting at 7am election day
NV - starts counting at 7am election day
MI - starts counting before polls close on election day
FL - starts counting after polls close, but mail ins are counted first, then in person votes
So beyond the 38 states that we already know who will win - AZ, NC and OH will be counted early, TX will have a good headstart.
FL is an experienced mail in voting state, so the increase in mail ins will not be as big here. They will almost certainly have results by midnight. But remember that mail ins are counted first, so we will probably see a healthy Biden lead in the early evening, and then see that get eaten away as the night goes on. We just hope it holds.
The leaves:
WI, PA, MI, GA, and NV
3 very important states in there. But it really will boil down to FL, FL, FL. If Biden is announced winning FL by midnight, the rest doesn't really matter. Especially if we know who is winning in AZ and NC. We can also assume that if Biden wins FL, he will most likely carry MI, WI, and PA
Will it be clean and easy. Probably not completely. But I do not think that there is going to be a landslide Trump win on election night and then it gets sorted out days and weeks later.
In fact, we don't really know, other than FL, which ballots get counted first in the states that don't start counting til polls close. Or if they get counted simultaneously with in person ballots.
And i do concede that no matter what happens, Trump is going to be so OFF HIS FUCKING ROCKER INSANE, that he will be filing lawsuits that night before polls even close.
