US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX

[MrsSpringsteen]

CNN is definitely screwing around. "Race for WH narrows as votes are counted". They still have Biden at 253

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Wearing Trump gear, the Phoenix protesters filled much of the parking lot at the Maricopa County election center, and members of the crowd chanted, “Fox News sucks!” in anger over the network declaring Joe Biden the winner in Arizona.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

18k Trump lead, 25k votes left to count.

Going to be craaaaaazy tight but I think trump will hold on

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

 

[mikal]

I see Pennsylvania basically decided to stop counting last night?

Georgia looks like Biden will fall just short.

So basically 2 possibilities for the race to be called for Biden today:

- Hold on in Arizona and Nevada

- Pull ahead on Pennsylvania

 

[gump]

Arizona, though it continues to tighten, looks like it might just hold.

Not sure about Georgia, it really depends where these votes are coming from. That’s where the NYT needle would have been useful.

 

[phanan]

So much for waking up and hoping this was done.

 

[gump]

Ok so apparently it is not clear if there are only 25k votes left to report or to count, with some yet unreported. If it’s the former I don’t think Biden can make up the difference.

 

[mikal]

Ok so apparently it is not clear if there are only 25k votes left to report or to count, with some yet unreported. If it’s the former I don’t think Biden can make up the difference.

Like they think there might be more than 25k?

That would make sense because at one point there were 80k votes and he was only down by 33k. I thought he would have made up more ground with the pace he was on.

 

[gump]

Like they think there might be more than 25k?

That would make sense because at one point there were 80k votes and he was only down by 33k. I thought he would have made up more ground with the pace he was on.

Yeah, I think "counting" and "reporting" can be considered different things, i.e. you have votes that have been counted and not reported.

There's also this:

[TWEET]1324334248229326849[/TWEET]

Edit: 50K votes left should allow Biden to get over the top with a 70-30 margin, which is more doable.

 

[mikal]

Yeah, I think "counting" and "reporting" can be considered different things, i.e. you have votes that have been counted and not reported.

There's also this:

[TWEET]1324334248229326849[/TWEET]

Edit: 50K votes left should allow Biden to get over the top with a 70-30 margin, which is more doable.

Oh that makes sense if there are indeed 50k left, then Biden will definitely win. Hell, even 30k votes.

 

[Hewson]

That people could vote Biden/Perdue just astounds me.

A lot of people who vote don’t know who the candidate is and pick name recognition or the name that sounds cooler. A lot of people don’t vote beyond president. I doubt the Biden/Perdue combo was very high but I wouldn’t be surprised. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Trump/Ossoff happened too. Name recognition is super important.

I also wouldn't rule out a certain percentage of republicans who voted party lines with the lone exception being the top of the ticket because they despise what Trump has done to make our government look like a clown show.

 

[mikal]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324338475303403521?s=21

Looks like it might really be 51k ballots left in Georgia.

 

[gump]

On the other hand, there are some indications that there may be fewer votes left than expected in PA.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324337757699907586

 

[Hewson]

270-268, unless NV flips then it's 274-264 for Trump.

 

[iron yuppie]

Seems like the story this morning is a Biden victory is far from a certainty.

 

[LemonMelon]

Seems like the story this morning is a Biden victory is far from a certainty.

Says who?

 

[mikal]

On the other hand, there are some indications that there may be fewer votes left than expected in PA.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324337757699907586

So many discrepancies between counting and reporting.

PA had 800,000 ballots left last night and they definitely didn’t report 300,000 more since then. So the number is higher than some of these people are jumping the gun on reporting this morning. Just like Georgia.

 

[LemonMelon]

https://twitter.com/BrianSimsPA/status/1324342271861547008?s=19

 

[iron yuppie]

Says who?

Just observational. People are acting like GA and PA are in the bag, which seems to be premature.

 

[LemonMelon]

Just observational. People are acting like GA and PA are in the bag, which seems to be premature.

PA is in the bag. GA is very much not.

I think there's just lingering anxiety because the whole process has become protracted, but the margins have not meaningfully changed in the last 12 hours.

 

[mikal]

https://twitter.com/BrianSimsPA/status/1324342271861547008?s=19

This is good because these numbers definitely haven’t been reported yet on the final totals. It’s been stuck on the same total since about 9pm ET last night.

 

[BEAL]

Ever a reason to get rid of the fucking EC it would be these last few days.

 

[mikal]

More confirmation that Georgia has 50k left

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324346056499486720?s=21

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The cured ballots must have taken hydrochloroquine

 

[Hollow Island]

Georgia secretary of state: less than 25k ballots remain...CORRECTED TO 50K AS I TYPED. FUCK YEAH.
A journalist: at least 50k
Democrats: 70k

I'm going with the secretary of state. I hope to be pleasantly surprised but I'm not expecting it.

Arizona looks bad. Nevada's too tight. I'm feeling pessimistic today, but that might be the effect of two sleepless nights.

EDIT:

 

[mikal]

Georgia secretary of state: less than 25k ballots remain
A journalist: at least 50k
Democrats: 70k

I'm going with the secretary of state. I hope to be pleasantly surprised but I'm not expecting it.

Arizona looks bad. Nevada's too tight. I'm feeling pessimistic today, but that might be the effect of two sleepless nights.

The Secretary of State just said that there are 50k

 

[Irvine511]

AP and Fox have not changed their call on AZ.

 

[LemonMelon]

This is good because these numbers definitely haven’t been reported yet on the final totals. It’s been stuck on the same total since about 9pm ET last night.

Yeah people are just antsy. Allegheny and Philadelphia counties alone will bring the gap to 0 and then there's still Delaware, Buck and Montgomery counties to finish up. That 100k-200k margin that was projected yesterday morning for Biden is still very likely.

 

[mikal]

Also, I read that the next couple of batches of Arizona will be less trampolining than the first couple that came in. I think that’s why no one has pulled their projection and why the Biden camp still feels really good about it.