US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX - Page 6 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind > Free Your Mind Archive
Click Here to Login
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 11-04-2020, 12:15 AM   #101
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
gump's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 9,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
MN called quickly for Biden (AP), a good sign for the upper midwest.
__________________

gump is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:15 AM   #102
Blue Crack Addict
 
Moonlit_Angel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: In a dimension known as the Twilight Zone...do de doo doo, do de doo doo...
Posts: 20,716
Local Time: 08:39 AM
How likely will it be that any states may flip in the coming days as more ballots get counted? Are there some we might want to keep an eye on to potentially switch?
__________________

Moonlit_Angel is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:16 AM   #103
Blue Crack Addict
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 18,441
Local Time: 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel View Post
How likely will it be that any states may flip in the coming days as more ballots get counted? Are there some we might want to keep an eye on to potentially switch?


I think that’s all the Midwest and the Midwest alone, but I could be wrong. Basically, it’s not happening anywhere else but there.
LuckyNumber7 is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:17 AM   #104
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
gump's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 9,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I can almost guarantee you whatever wankers made it made it sensitive to same-day momentum so it’s 95% Trump until Atlanta starts pouring in and now it’s 65% Biden and in reality the true split was probably.... yknow... 65% Trump like it was all along.
I don't think that was the case. They seemed to be be building it with precinct-level data that could distinguish between early/mail/Election Day voting and extrapolate demographic characteristics. Not sure what happened there.

Edit: one theory that I've seen, not so much about the needle but in general, is that they extrapolated early returns of Election Day votes, but there was a shift toward Dems later in the day which may have made the initial sample of Election Day votes too R-leaning.
gump is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:18 AM   #105
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 33,460
Local Time: 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
this is an interesting thought. the threat of nuclear annihilation did seem to have a way of bringing people together. it's hard to call the 1945-64 post-ww2 period a multiracial democracy though. even today it only really is that way in certain states.


Yes. It’s only post mid-60s that it starts to become multiracial and not bi-racial, and we didn’t have the diversity in even 2000 that we do now.
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:20 AM   #106
Blue Crack Addict
 
Moonlit_Angel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: In a dimension known as the Twilight Zone...do de doo doo, do de doo doo...
Posts: 20,716
Local Time: 08:39 AM
Okay, good to know, LN, thanks . I just didn't know if some of the other states where some ballots wouldn't start being counted until tomorrow would be a factor or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gump View Post
MN called quickly for Biden (AP), a good sign for the upper midwest.
That one doesn't surprise me. Good on them. Maybe I should move there. I'm hoping that Tina Smith will win over Jason "DUR HUR SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS BANG BANG!" Lewis in that state, too, and looking at the results thus far, that one's looking good for her. So yay.
Moonlit_Angel is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:20 AM   #107
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,134
Local Time: 09:39 AM
If we're starting a break up the country train I'm certainly down to buy a ticket.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:21 AM   #108
Blue Crack Addict
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 18,441
Local Time: 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gump View Post
I don't think that was the case. They seemed to be be building it with precinct-level data that could distinguish between early/mail/Election Day voting and extrapolate demographic characteristics. Not sure what happened there.


I saw their definition and it had a series of different drivers.

As someone who makes fancy sophisticated numerical models for a living I can tell you they’re never as fancy and sophisticated anyone ever thinks they are. Typically, you develop reliability by showing they work, as theoretical models are way harder to develop. For voting that’s a social study, so you can’t really develop a theoretical model.

Which does lead to exactly what you were saying. They probably just put something out there that’s not matured.
LuckyNumber7 is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:22 AM   #109
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 18,918
Local Time: 10:39 AM
I love how Atlanta officials have decided to stop counting for tonight and will pick up tomorrow morning. What in the actual fuck is this?

Off to bed! Godspeed to all of us.
anitram is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:22 AM   #110
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,224
Local Time: 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
WTF?!?! Come ON!
womanfish is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:23 AM   #111
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
Vincent Vega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Berlin
Posts: 6,728
Local Time: 03:39 PM
Truly depressing that it's even a question at this point. And Senators like Graham and Collins acting with impunity.
Vincent Vega is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:23 AM   #112
Blue Crack Addict
 
DaveC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: nazi punks fuck off
Posts: 21,956
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
I love how Atlanta officials have decided to stop counting for tonight and will pick up tomorrow morning. What in the actual fuck is this?
"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"

DaveC is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:24 AM   #113
Blue Crack Addict
 
Moonlit_Angel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: In a dimension known as the Twilight Zone...do de doo doo, do de doo doo...
Posts: 20,716
Local Time: 08:39 AM
We just couldn't have a simple, easy election, could we? Nope. Had to be as crazy as the rest of 2020.

Eh, well, guess we'll all pick up and learn more numbers tomorrow, then? Yay?
Moonlit_Angel is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:25 AM   #114
Blue Crack Addict
 
LuckyNumber7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 18,441
Local Time: 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"



My thoughts exactly. In march Kemp agents to destroy ballots. If I were a counter I would not leave.
LuckyNumber7 is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:26 AM   #115
Blue Crack Addict
 
mikal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Black Lodge
Posts: 27,065
Local Time: 08:39 AM
So a blue wave tomorrow? Atlanta, Milwaukee, really MI votes, early PA votes.

Let’s Fucking Go!
mikal is online now  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:26 AM   #116
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
gump's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Brooklyn
Posts: 9,900
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
I saw their definition and it had a series of different drivers.

As someone who makes fancy sophisticated numerical models for a living I can tell you they’re never as fancy and sophisticated anyone ever thinks they are. Typically, you develop reliability by showing they work, as theoretical models are way harder to develop. For voting that’s a social study, so you can’t really develop a theoretical model.

Which does lead to exactly what you were saying. They probably just put something out there that’s not matured.
I hear you (have done some poli-sci modeling myself in a previous life).

On this note, I'm calling it a night. Let's see where we are early in the morning.
gump is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:28 AM   #117
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,134
Local Time: 09:39 AM
I don't know if there's anything else left in Georgia, but if the outstanding ballots in Cobb and DeKalb break along the same percentages of what's already in then Biden should take Georgia by about 150 to 200k
Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:28 AM   #118
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
womanfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 7,224
Local Time: 02:39 PM
Big if here, but if Biden gets Georgia and AZ along with the Midwest 3, that would be pretty damn good.

324 to 213
womanfish is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:28 AM   #119
Blue Crack Addict
 
Moonlit_Angel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: In a dimension known as the Twilight Zone...do de doo doo, do de doo doo...
Posts: 20,716
Local Time: 08:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"

I'm telling ya, I really think that explains a lot of the wonky results thus far this evening. So many people voted by mail, and the GOP did everything in their power to fuck with the mail-in voting this year. If we were/are able to count those ballots, I feel like some of those numbers would change quite a bit.

Also, because it can't be said enough, fuck you, Iowa. What. The. Hell?
Moonlit_Angel is offline  
Old 11-04-2020, 12:31 AM   #120
Blue Crack Distributor
 
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: DC
Posts: 68,134
Local Time: 09:39 AM
Gwinnett County in GA has not counter a single mail in vote yet
__________________

Headache in a Suitcase is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com
×