US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX

[mikal]

LOL Georgia on our minds?

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Come on, Georgia. Come on, Arizona.

 

[gump]

Georgia on my mind.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The NYT needle is full on baby back bullshit and they can eat a dick

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The ghost of John McCain tho. Pls haunt trump pls

 

[DaveC]

I think that’s the problem. We dont have a cohesive country. Multiracial democracy is apparently really hard. What kept us together post-WW2 was the Cold War and reasonably good divided government.

It seems the upheaval of the 60s hit harder and lingers longer here than other places.

this is an interesting thought. the threat of nuclear annihilation did seem to have a way of bringing people together. it's hard to call the 1945-64 post-ww2 period a multiracial democracy though. even today it only really is that way in certain states.

 

[gump]

The NYT needle is full on baby back bullshit and they can eat a dick

I kind of agree, it almost feels like something that is in product development and not ready for consumption. That said, I think there were some issues with how precints were reporting that messed up the projections.

 

[DaveC]

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1323852560176959489

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I kind of agree, it almost feels like something that is in product development and not ready for consumption. That said, I think there were some issues with how precints were reporting that messed up the projections.

I can almost guarantee you whatever wankers made it made it sensitive to same-day momentum so it’s 95% Trump until Atlanta starts pouring in and now it’s 65% Biden and in reality the true split was probably.... yknow... 65% Trump like it was all along.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1323844850890895362?s=19

I blame Trae Young.

 

[gump]

MN called quickly for Biden (AP), a good sign for the upper midwest.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

How likely will it be that any states may flip in the coming days as more ballots get counted? Are there some we might want to keep an eye on to potentially switch?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

How likely will it be that any states may flip in the coming days as more ballots get counted? Are there some we might want to keep an eye on to potentially switch?

I think that’s all the Midwest and the Midwest alone, but I could be wrong. Basically, it’s not happening anywhere else but there.

 

[gump]

I can almost guarantee you whatever wankers made it made it sensitive to same-day momentum so it’s 95% Trump until Atlanta starts pouring in and now it’s 65% Biden and in reality the true split was probably.... yknow... 65% Trump like it was all along.

I don't think that was the case. They seemed to be be building it with precinct-level data that could distinguish between early/mail/Election Day voting and extrapolate demographic characteristics. Not sure what happened there.

Edit: one theory that I've seen, not so much about the needle but in general, is that they extrapolated early returns of Election Day votes, but there was a shift toward Dems later in the day which may have made the initial sample of Election Day votes too R-leaning.

 

[Irvine511]

this is an interesting thought. the threat of nuclear annihilation did seem to have a way of bringing people together. it's hard to call the 1945-64 post-ww2 period a multiracial democracy though. even today it only really is that way in certain states.

Yes. It’s only post mid-60s that it starts to become multiracial and not bi-racial, and we didn’t have the diversity in even 2000 that we do now.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Okay, good to know, LN, thanks . I just didn't know if some of the other states where some ballots wouldn't start being counted until tomorrow would be a factor or something.

MN called quickly for Biden (AP), a good sign for the upper midwest.

That one doesn't surprise me. Good on them. Maybe I should move there. I'm hoping that Tina Smith will win over Jason "DUR HUR SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS BANG BANG!" Lewis in that state, too, and looking at the results thus far, that one's looking good for her. So yay.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

If we're starting a break up the country train I'm certainly down to buy a ticket.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I don't think that was the case. They seemed to be be building it with precinct-level data that could distinguish between early/mail/Election Day voting and extrapolate demographic characteristics. Not sure what happened there.

I saw their definition and it had a series of different drivers.

As someone who makes fancy sophisticated numerical models for a living I can tell you they’re never as fancy and sophisticated anyone ever thinks they are. Typically, you develop reliability by showing they work, as theoretical models are way harder to develop. For voting that’s a social study, so you can’t really develop a theoretical model.

Which does lead to exactly what you were saying. They probably just put something out there that’s not matured.

 

[anitram]

I love how Atlanta officials have decided to stop counting for tonight and will pick up tomorrow morning. What in the actual fuck is this?

Off to bed! Godspeed to all of us.

 

[womanfish]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1323844850890895362?s=19

I blame Trae Young.

WTF?!?! Come ON!

 

[Vincent Vega]

Truly depressing that it's even a question at this point. And Senators like Graham and Collins acting with impunity.

 

[DaveC]

I love how Atlanta officials have decided to stop counting for tonight and will pick up tomorrow morning. What in the actual fuck is this?

"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

We just couldn't have a simple, easy election, could we? Nope. Had to be as crazy as the rest of 2020.

Eh, well, guess we'll all pick up and learn more numbers tomorrow, then? Yay?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"

My thoughts exactly. In march Kemp agents to destroy ballots. If I were a counter I would not leave.

 

[mikal]

So a blue wave tomorrow? Atlanta, Milwaukee, really MI votes, early PA votes.

Let’s Fucking Go!

 

[gump]

I saw their definition and it had a series of different drivers.

As someone who makes fancy sophisticated numerical models for a living I can tell you they’re never as fancy and sophisticated anyone ever thinks they are. Typically, you develop reliability by showing they work, as theoretical models are way harder to develop. For voting that’s a social study, so you can’t really develop a theoretical model.

Which does lead to exactly what you were saying. They probably just put something out there that’s not matured.

I hear you (have done some poli-sci modeling myself in a previous life).

On this note, I'm calling it a night. Let's see where we are early in the morning.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I don't know if there's anything else left in Georgia, but if the outstanding ballots in Cobb and DeKalb break along the same percentages of what's already in then Biden should take Georgia by about 150 to 200k

 

[womanfish]

Big if here, but if Biden gets Georgia and AZ along with the Midwest 3, that would be pretty damn good.

324 to 213

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

"where did all those ballots go since we left last night?"

I'm telling ya, I really think that explains a lot of the wonky results thus far this evening. So many people voted by mail, and the GOP did everything in their power to fuck with the mail-in voting this year. If we were/are able to count those ballots, I feel like some of those numbers would change quite a bit.

Also, because it can't be said enough, fuck you, Iowa. What. The. Hell?

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Gwinnett County in GA has not counter a single mail in vote yet