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Old 11-04-2020, 01:55 PM   #461
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Feeling more confident about AZ now that Republicans are inventing a sharpie-gate.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:59 PM   #462
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so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

It frustrates me how so many on the left don't care if they repel regular people. What matters to them is that they're right, because it feels good. It's counter productive though. The goal should be to persuade people, otherwise it's a waste of time and will accomplish nothing. The left is generally really fucking bad at persuading people. The right, however, manages to succeed over and over again despite 40 years of failed conservative policies since the Thatcher/Reagan/Mulroney revolution. I guess it helps to have so much of the media be nothing more than conservative propaganda, but still. Trickle down economics don't fucking work!
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:00 PM   #463
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Donald Trump’s reelection campaign said it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the swing state of Michigan.
“President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law. We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted,” campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement.
“We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”
it's happening. i assume they'll fail.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:02 PM   #464
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Originally Posted by iron yuppie View Post
For all the doom-saying about polling last night, it *looks* like the most probable scenario is going to happen: a decent popular vote victory and narrow EC victory for Biden.
Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...

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So exasperating.

The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:02 PM   #465
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so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.
It's not a popular thing to say among my friends, but it needs to be said and you put it correctly.

When Kamala Harris was chosen as the VP candidate, I had several of my friends text me their disappointment that she didn't permit trans women to go to women's prisons. I am not saying that this isn't a debate that could or should be had, I'm not saying that there isn't empathy in me on this, but for the love of God, THIS is the bright line you are drawing in an election for the survival of democracy?

My son goes in a school in a neighbourhood that's kind of a mild version of extremes - people who own $2M houses (to clarify before Orgie skewers me: our now-sold house is not one of them) and people who are squeezed into apartments - not the poor by any means, but lower middle class. Overwhelmingly the parents of those kids who are immigrants themselves - lots from Latin America, lots from various former Eastern bloc states totally reject the concept of "privilege" and have a visceral reaction to it.

The left constantly gets embroiled in unhelpful discussions without keeping their eye on the prize. Now somebody will tell me that this is a dumb centrist view of people who don't want to enact real change and that we have to be a tent for all and all things to everyone. But the right wanted their precious SCOTUS and was willing to vote for a walking, steaming pile of shit if that's what it took. And the results speak for themselves.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:04 PM   #466
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So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.
I'm not the first to say on this thread that Nate Silver got lucky once and has been riding on the coattails of that ever since. But frankly he's like an active manager with an underperforming ETF.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:06 PM   #467
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Originally Posted by Hewson View Post
He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.
Once NY and California get counted it will be closer to +5 I think.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:08 PM   #468
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Originally Posted by Hewson View Post
Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...

The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.
The popular vote is nowhere near done and is going to swell. It won't be +8, but it won't be near +1 either.

As for the remaining polls, I'll wait for the final numbers, although MI, NV, and WI at first glance were way off. Most appear to have been in the margin of error though.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:09 PM   #469
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But frankly he's like an active manager with an underperforming ETF.
lmao this is a fantastic and very accurate description.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:11 PM   #470
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Once NY and California get counted it will be closer to +5 I think.
They haven't counted NY yet?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:12 PM   #471
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.
I hope some day you and I will be able to regain our humanity.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:18 PM   #472
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They haven't counted NY yet?
Still 15% outstanding here. The NY Board of Elections is utterly incompetent.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:23 PM   #473
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I hope some day you and I will be able to regain our humanity.

so i let my dog outside last night, and inside i heard some screaming, fist-pounding tantrum coming from inside that tried to focus everyone's attention away from the election and to THEM and THEIR OWN personal set of grievances. there were tears and door slams and a lot of fist shaking and "you were all so mean to me!"

turns out it was just Trump. i think.

right?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:24 PM   #474
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so ... is AZ ok?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:31 PM   #475
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looks like it
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:33 PM   #476
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.
I agree with this.

Defund the Police should be defunded as a slogan. Find something better that doesn't put people as a us vs. law enforcement situation. Most people will support the police. Luckily it doesn't seem like LAW AND ORDER was really a sticking point for people this election. It's Economy and Covid Fatigue

The other issue with the left wing politics is like you said, they don't want to feel guilty or shamed because I won't raise my fist in the air when the angry mob yells at me to. Or I won't feel complete shame for what people did 300 years ago.

What Trump and the GOP give people is a, for lack of a better phrase, "safe space". You go to a Trump rally and there's no shame, no guilt. Also no logic or reason, but people can feel truly free there. They don't worry about being called a racist (at that moment), or worry that if they say something to their fellow rally goer they'll be pulled over by the PC police.

It is as close to 100% of the appeal of Trumpism. To not feel shame for who you are.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:33 PM   #477
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so ... Is az ok?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:34 PM   #478
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Originally Posted by Hewson View Post
Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...







The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/



He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.

So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

What’s that? A poll average was meaningless and undecided voters were secretly Trump voters? You don’t say
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:36 PM   #479
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ABC has 227-214 Biden

My local ABC affiliate has 248-214 Biden

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Old 11-04-2020, 02:38 PM   #480
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ABC has 227-214 Biden



My local ABC affiliate has 248-214 Biden





Some places are happily calling Arizona+Nevada+Wisconsin. Others are not.
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