US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX

[gump]

mikal, maybe he can do it:

[TWEET]1324163254747303938[/TWEET]

 

[mikal]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324163254747303938?s=19

This is good.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Why is it about to tighten??

Yea I don't get the stress. It's early vote, even if some of it was dropped off on election day.

Early vote across the board has gone for Biden, even in red counties.

 

[gump]

Yea I don't get the stress. It's early vote, even if some of it was dropped off on election day.

Early vote across the board has gone for Biden, even in red counties.

I think the "late" early vote (i.e. Monday or dropped off on Election Day) tended to be more Republican. But possibly not by the margins that Trump would need there. But there's a lot of vote left.

 

[mikal]

More perspective on AZ

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324164360017686528?s=21

 

[LuckyNumber7]

GA remaining vote - certainly still enough out there.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/imillhiser/status/1324159121457881088?s=19


Where did they go!?! Maybe into the upside down??!

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/NYinLA2121/status/1324165223377297408?s=19

Hiyoooooooooo

 

[gump]

David Perdue at 50.2.

Imagine two GA races in January to determine control of the Senate.

 

[gump]

https://twitter.com/NYinLA2121/status/1324165223377297408?s=19

Hiyoooooooooo

If he lost only 50 pounds it would still be an EC landslide. 300+.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

David Perdue at 50.2.

Imagine two GA races in January to determine control of the Senate.

Oh dear... is the GA law simple majority? I thought the run off was due to it being a special election (I know nothing about GA politics)

 

[gump]

Oh dear... is the GA law simple majority? I thought the run off was due to it being a special election (I know nothing about GA politics)

Pretty sure there's a runoff, though I don't know why exactly.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Oh dear... is the GA law simple majority? I thought the run off was due to it being a special election (I know nothing about GA politics)

Yea the winner needs to be over 50% to avoid a runoff

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/zachzachzach/status/1324118169351462913?s=19

 

[iron yuppie]

AZ sure is taking its sweet time here.

 

[mikal]

AZ sure is taking its sweet time here.

Yep. Really hope AZ holds so we can exhale.

 

[gump]

According to MSNBC, Trump is getting about 59% of the first outstanding batch in Maricopa. Not sure if that's enough to close the gap. It could be. Sigh.

 

[mikal]

According to MSNBC, Trump is getting about 59% of the beginning of the remaining batch in Maricopa. Not sure if that's enough to close the gap.

It’s going to get close. They just said he’d need a 60% threshold.

 

[the tourist]

This is so insanely close in so many states. I never would have thought 65+ million people would vote for Trump. Ugh.

 

[womanfish]

David Perdue at 50.2.

Imagine two GA races in January to determine control of the Senate.

Does that race go to a runoff? Or is it just a head to head

 

[gump]

Does that race go to a runoff? Or is it just a head to head

Runoff!

 

[LuckyNumber7]

According to MSNBC, Trump is getting about 59% of the first outstanding batch in Maricopa. Not sure if that's enough to close the gap. It could be. Sigh.

I think it is.

 

[womanfish]

I think it is.

Yeah, it doesn’t look good

 

[mikal]

I wonder if Fox News called AZ on purpose so they could take it back for a dramatic effect.

Looking more and more likely that it’s truly going to come down to PA aiming AZ goes Red.

 

[gump]

At this point, in terms of likelihood of a Biden win, looks like PA > AZ >= GA. Not sure where NV sits.

 

[mikal]

I’ll say this. The Biden campaign must really believe in their internal data because the campaign of patience and not declaring anything seen pretty convinced that they’re going to hold onto AZ.

 

[iron yuppie]

And really no noise from Trump about AZ it seems?

 

[gump]

I think it is.

He needs about a 20 point win with the 340k left in Maricopa and Biden's 70k advantage, so it's in the ballpark but perhaps just a bit low. This assumes that the outstanding votes elsewhere are neutral overall (but the second largest county, Pima, where Biden is winning 60-39, still has 46k votes left).

 

[mikal]

He needs about a 20 point win with the 340k left in Maricopa and Biden's 70k advantage, so it's in the ballpark but perhaps just a bit low. This assumes that the outstanding votes elsewhere are neutral overall (but the second largest county, Pima, where Biden is winning 60-39, still has 46k votes left).

So basically any of these batches where Trump underperforms could be the dagger.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Dunno why people aren’t high on GA still. To me that looks like it’s going blue for sure.