US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX

[LuckyNumber7]

Short of a GA miracle for Ossoff or some massive influx of unexpected votes in NC, the senate is gone.

But even 48 or 49 is a small victory because 2022 is incredibly against republicans who are wishing to obstruct. The whole map is defensive for them, sans AZ/NV.

 

[gump]

Trump's lead down to 80k votes in GA. Let's hope there's enough left in Atlanta. (This moved the outstanding vote from 8% to 7%).

 

[LuckyNumber7]

it's such a fucking joke that in a two-person election one candidate can get clearly over 50% of the votes and still possibly not win.

On a walk to starbies I came up with a very clever system/bandaid.

Two national senators elected by DC and the territories, national electoral votes for winning the popular vote which is valued directly related to the size of DC + the territories, and congressional representatives that represent territories + DC.

Boom, republicans don’t have to stomach 4 blue senators from DC + PR but progressives get their bonus EC for consistently winning the popular vote. Every American citizen gets greater representation.

 

[BEAL]

So what can Biden accomplish ?

He can cancel all of Trumps EOs correct ?
He can create his own EO, tho risk is those going to courts
He can name “acting” cabinet members since i don’t see GOP conforming anyone
He can stabilize the Covid Task force and provide useful information
Declare states of emergency

I think if the senate had flipped to Dems, the GOP would fight harder in courts or even try to get state electors to not vote for Biden

But, since they own the courts and senate Mitch had so much success handicapping Obama the final years that he’ll repeat this script.

One thing I’d really like to see is Nancy step
Down as Speaker. Get a real fighter in there. Nancy chose to ignore Trumps criming until it was forcing her to impeach. Even then she limited the scope.

We need fighters in the Dems.

2024 is going to be even worse with the characters put forward

Trump (if healthy enough)
Junior
Ivanka
Hailey
Cotton

 

[Hewson]

. Everyone who went to bed thinks we are crazy.

What, youze aren't?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

So what can Biden accomplish ?

He can cancel all of Trumps EOs correct ?
He can create his own EO, tho risk is those going to courts
He can name “acting” cabinet members since i don’t see GOP conforming anyone
He can stabilize the Covid Task force and provide useful information
Declare states of emergency

I think if the senate had flipped to Dems, the GOP would fight harder in courts or even try to get state electors to not vote for Biden

But, since they own the courts and senate Mitch had so much success handicapping Obama the final years that he’ll repeat this script.

One thing I’d really like to see is Nancy step
Down as Speaker. Get a real fighter in there. Nancy chose to ignore Trumps criming until it was forcing her to impeach. Even then she limited the scope.

We need fighters in the Dems.

2024 is going to be even worse with the characters put forward

Trump (if healthy enough)
Junior
Ivanka
Hailey
Cotton

If any of Trump’s entourage runs for president it will be like a straight to DVD sequel and we have nothing to worry about. I’m afraid of Trump running again though.

I’m not afraid of a republican otherwise. I mean it would be awful and they could win, but they wouldn’t actively destabilize our country. For a long time I said “Ted Cruz would’ve been worse” and that statement was definitely true up until Covid and BLM.

 

[gump]

So exasperating.

[TWEET]1324058836018307075[/TWEET]

 

[Hollow Island]

Dates on which the counting should be complete:


Georgia: today
Michigan: today
Wisconsin: today
Arizona: today
Nevada: no update until tomorrow
Pennsylvania: most votes will be counted by Friday
NC: mail in ballots accepted until next Thursday, Nov 12.

Since Biden will probably need Nevada we won't know until tomorrow at the earliest.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

So exasperating.

[TWEET]1324058836018307075[/TWEET]

And yet Gideon is hitting her targets (maybe slightly underperforming to the third party progressive though, likely due to ranked voting comfort for those people).

What’s incredibly apparent: if they didn’t say who they were voting for it’s because they’re ashamed, not because they’re undecided.

 

[Irvine511]

so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

 

[gump]

Feeling more confident about AZ now that Republicans are inventing a sharpie-gate.

 

[Hollow Island]

so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

It frustrates me how so many on the left don't care if they repel regular people. What matters to them is that they're right, because it feels good. It's counter productive though. The goal should be to persuade people, otherwise it's a waste of time and will accomplish nothing. The left is generally really fucking bad at persuading people. The right, however, manages to succeed over and over again despite 40 years of failed conservative policies since the Thatcher/Reagan/Mulroney revolution. I guess it helps to have so much of the media be nothing more than conservative propaganda, but still. Trickle down economics don't fucking work!

 

[Hollow Island]

Donald Trump’s reelection campaign said it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the swing state of Michigan.
“President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law. We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted,” campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement.
“We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”

it's happening. i assume they'll fail.

 

[Hewson]

For all the doom-saying about polling last night, it *looks* like the most probable scenario is going to happen: a decent popular vote victory and narrow EC victory for Biden.

Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...

So exasperating.

[TWEET]1324058836018307075[/TWEET]

The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

 

[anitram]

so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

It's not a popular thing to say among my friends, but it needs to be said and you put it correctly.

When Kamala Harris was chosen as the VP candidate, I had several of my friends text me their disappointment that she didn't permit trans women to go to women's prisons. I am not saying that this isn't a debate that could or should be had, I'm not saying that there isn't empathy in me on this, but for the love of God, THIS is the bright line you are drawing in an election for the survival of democracy?

My son goes in a school in a neighbourhood that's kind of a mild version of extremes - people who own $2M houses (to clarify before Orgie skewers me: our now-sold house is not one of them) and people who are squeezed into apartments - not the poor by any means, but lower middle class. Overwhelmingly the parents of those kids who are immigrants themselves - lots from Latin America, lots from various former Eastern bloc states totally reject the concept of "privilege" and have a visceral reaction to it.

The left constantly gets embroiled in unhelpful discussions without keeping their eye on the prize. Now somebody will tell me that this is a dumb centrist view of people who don't want to enact real change and that we have to be a tent for all and all things to everyone. But the right wanted their precious SCOTUS and was willing to vote for a walking, steaming pile of shit if that's what it took. And the results speak for themselves.

 

[anitram]

So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

I'm not the first to say on this thread that Nate Silver got lucky once and has been riding on the coattails of that ever since. But frankly he's like an active manager with an underperforming ETF.

 

[gump]

He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

Once NY and California get counted it will be closer to +5 I think.

 

[phanan]

Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...

The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.
So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

The popular vote is nowhere near done and is going to swell. It won't be +8, but it won't be near +1 either.

As for the remaining polls, I'll wait for the final numbers, although MI, NV, and WI at first glance were way off. Most appear to have been in the margin of error though.

 

[DaveC]

But frankly he's like an active manager with an underperforming ETF.

lmao this is a fantastic and very accurate description.

 

[Hewson]

Once NY and California get counted it will be closer to +5 I think.

They haven't counted NY yet?

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

I hope some day you and I will be able to regain our humanity.

 

[gump]

They haven't counted NY yet?

Still 15% outstanding here. The NY Board of Elections is utterly incompetent.

 

[Irvine511]

I hope some day you and I will be able to regain our humanity.

so i let my dog outside last night, and inside i heard some screaming, fist-pounding tantrum coming from inside that tried to focus everyone's attention away from the election and to THEM and THEIR OWN personal set of grievances. there were tears and door slams and a lot of fist shaking and "you were all so mean to me!"

turns out it was just Trump. i think.

right?

 

[Irvine511]

so ... is AZ ok?

 

[Hollow Island]

looks like it

 

[BEAL]

so, real talk. and something of a confession.

i understand it. i support it. i know it's a backlash to Trump's racism.

but left wing identity politics -- "everyone is a little bit racist/society is white supremacist" -- needs to find a different form of political expression.

it repels regular people, whether it should or not.

I agree with this.

Defund the Police should be defunded as a slogan. Find something better that doesn't put people as a us vs. law enforcement situation. Most people will support the police. Luckily it doesn't seem like LAW AND ORDER was really a sticking point for people this election. It's Economy and Covid Fatigue

The other issue with the left wing politics is like you said, they don't want to feel guilty or shamed because I won't raise my fist in the air when the angry mob yells at me to. Or I won't feel complete shame for what people did 300 years ago.

What Trump and the GOP give people is a, for lack of a better phrase, "safe space". You go to a Trump rally and there's no shame, no guilt. Also no logic or reason, but people can feel truly free there. They don't worry about being called a racist (at that moment), or worry that if they say something to their fellow rally goer they'll be pulled over by the PC police.

It is as close to 100% of the appeal of Trumpism. To not feel shame for who you are.

 

[gump]

so ... Is az ok?

[tweet]1324071703400665088[/tweet]

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Nah, polls were a cluster and just way way off again...case in point...







The polls showed Biden +8 nationally or so on average...



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/



He's at +2. Rasmussen's Biden +1 turns out to be the most accurate final national poll.

So what we learned is that Rasmussen, with their C+ rating had a better handle on this election than all the supposedly more reliable pollsters.

What’s that? A poll average was meaningless and undecided voters were secretly Trump voters? You don’t say

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

ABC has 227-214 Biden

My local ABC affiliate has 248-214 Biden

 

[LuckyNumber7]

ABC has 227-214 Biden



My local ABC affiliate has 248-214 Biden

Some places are happily calling Arizona+Nevada+Wisconsin. Others are not.