Dave is a Canadian and young people don’t vote. I think it’s safe to assume that Donald Trump’s shoestring victory was based upon the middle not making a decision. Honestly, nothing has changed and 2020 will be the exact same thing. The middle making a decision. Their decision to vote against Hillary Clinton had nothing to do with Bernie Sanders supporters who expressed negative views of Hillary.
I agree that 2020 is different than 2016. Trump doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt anymore. You are right that independents don’t seem likely to break for him at the last minute.
What I do think happened (and many things happened), and what I worry about repeating in 2020, is a lack of enthusiasm for HRC, that came from many places — the candidate’s relative lack of charisma, a 25-year long hate campaign against her, Russians, misogyny, and a left wing that repeatedly complained that she was no better/different than Trump. The lack of enthusiasm was most electorally salient in underperforming Rust Belt cities where 77,000 votes could have easily be found in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia with just a hair more enthusiasm.
I think it is important, as we head into the final 4 months, to not just vote for Biden but to actively support him. Turnout will be critical. There are very good things about Biden and his platform. In order to defeat Trump, I believe it will be important to focus on the good and not get bogged down in stories that only gain traction amongst the dissatisfied left — haven’t seen a whisper of this on any right wing website I’ve been to today, and I’m not that worried about charges of senility due to “PERSON WOMAN MAN CAMERA TV” being a thing right now.
So I am going to try to actively make a pro-Biden case in whatever political discussions I do have, because 77,000 votes is so small that tiny voices could make a difference.
I would do the same for any D nominee.