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Old 08-10-2020, 02:19 PM   #821
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Whoa,

I was gonna wait to post more poll info. But this is a doozy.

RMG Research has Biden +8 nationally. That's cool, falls in line with his average.

State poll of Maine

Biden +11 (no surprise)

But the Senate Race!!

RMG has Gideon at +7!!!

Her average lead over the last month is now 4.7
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Old 08-10-2020, 04:40 PM   #822
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US Politics XXIV: Your Country Sucks

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Originally Posted by womanfish View Post

He's gonna get these questions soon at the debate anyway. Hopefully it's well rehearsed.




Thank you for disagreeing with me without taking it personally.

This is what I’m saying: I don’t think Biden needs to make a statement TODAY about what happened in Chicago, but he needs to be aware that this is exactly the sort of thing that must not be allowed to be conflated with the protests/BLM. He needs to stay ahead of this, so if/when this continues and if/when it nationalizes, he’s prepared to make clear distinctions and effectively criticize one thing and defend the other.

There may well have to be a Sister Souljah moment when it comes to what are clearly rising crime rates in *some* cities (overall crime in the US is still much, much lower than it was in the 80s and 90s). The middle is what counts here. Suburban women. The gender gap is enormous and in Biden’s favor. He needs to keep it there.
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Old 08-10-2020, 04:51 PM   #823
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https://twitter.com/brandyzadrozny/s...334364166?s=21

A complete failure at the federal (and most state level) is biggest reason for our struggle

But close behind is a society that refuses to believe in facts or reality.

You can’t govern this mentality.
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Old 08-10-2020, 05:04 PM   #824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by womanfish View Post

State poll of Maine

Biden +11 (no surprise)

But the Senate Race!!

RMG has Gideon at +7!!!

Her average lead over the last month is now 4.7


the Dems will pick up AZ, NC, CO. They will lose AL.

control of the Senate may very well come down to Maine. anything beyond Maine is bonus.
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Old 08-10-2020, 05:04 PM   #825
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Her average lead over the last month is now 4.7

apparently her private polling says something different. but i hope this is correct.
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Old 08-10-2020, 06:13 PM   #826
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https://twitter.com/jackholmes0/stat...472196609?s=21
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Old 08-10-2020, 06:29 PM   #827
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Thank you for disagreeing with me without taking it personally.

This is what I’m saying: I don’t think Biden needs to make a statement TODAY about what happened in Chicago, but he needs to be aware that this is exactly the sort of thing that must not be allowed to be conflated with the protests/BLM. He needs to stay ahead of this, so if/when this continues and if/when it nationalizes, he’s prepared to make clear distinctions and effectively criticize one thing and defend the other.

There may well have to be a Sister Souljah moment when it comes to what are clearly rising crime rates in *some* cities (overall crime in the US is still much, much lower than it was in the 80s and 90s). The middle is what counts here. Suburban women. The gender gap is enormous and in Biden’s favor. He needs to keep it there.


I didn’t take it personally. I’m giving you shit for suggesting that there’s somehow a racist undertone in my post, where ironically my position is clearly that Joe Biden should be focused primarily on how pro-minority audiences might perceive him.
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Old 08-10-2020, 07:02 PM   #828
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Just to show how completely corrupt this president is, when I saw the news that he abruptly ended his lie dispens... sorry, corona briefing, because the secret service shot someone outside the White House, my very first thought was - who did Trump pay to create some false threat and claim to be Antifa or some shit.
God that’s sad.
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Old 08-10-2020, 07:23 PM   #829
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US Politics XXIV: Your Country Sucks

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I didn’t take it personally. I’m giving you shit for suggesting that there’s somehow a racist undertone in my post, where ironically my position is clearly that Joe Biden should be focused primarily on how pro-minority audiences might perceive him.


It read to me that you were presenting the riots as a part of, or inevitable effect of, BLM, and I think it’s critically important to make these distinctions to a wider audience who agree with the phrase “Black Lives Matter” but aren’t familiar with the specifics of their highly specific platform — the suburban moms.

You’ve clarified, but that’s what I was seeking. The force with which you came at me suggested it had been taken in a far more personal manner than I had intended.

Tone is always an issue on line. I’m sorry if mine came off badly.
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:53 AM   #830
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Interesting stat.

There are about 16 million Gen zr’s that came to voting age after Trump was elected. Right now, polling says they support Biden 94-6.

Now, I’m not a big fan of TikTok, but my experience with it has shown me how influential it is with young people and what they want to participate in. Right now it’s a hotbed if anti-Trumpism. I think it could have some real effects on young turnout.

Yes, I’m the first to bash young voter turnout, but even if they turnout in normal 15-20% fashion. That’s about 3 million fresh votes out there.

Trumps will be a death by a thousand cuts.
Movement away from him by women, by white voters, by veterans, by active military, by suburbanites, younger voters, by evangelicals, etc... it will be a collective shift that will doom Trump. And one that he alone is responsible for.

Just a caveat on an earlier post. The National poll with Biden +13 did not weight for education and was way over sampled on college grads.
Most likely the poll if weighted would be more in the +9 range. But I guess it evens out the Rasmussen’s.
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Old 08-11-2020, 06:14 AM   #831
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Interesting stat.

There are about 16 million Gen zr’s that came to voting age after Trump was elected. Right now, polling says they support Biden 94-6.

Now, I’m not a big fan of TikTok, but my experience with it has shown me how influential it is with young people and what they want to participate in. Right now it’s a hotbed if anti-Trumpism. I think it could have some real effects on young turnout.

Yes, I’m the first to bash young voter turnout, but even if they turnout in normal 15-20% fashion. That’s about 3 million fresh votes out there.

I hope so. I thought similar things regarding the last UK election, it had been 3 years since the Brexit vote and pretty much every university student was a new voter since then. But the Tories were elected in a landslide on a Get Brexit Done platform.

Luckily, Biden is far less divisive than Corbyn and polling much better.
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Old 08-11-2020, 06:45 AM   #832
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I hope so. I thought similar things regarding the last UK election, it had been 3 years since the Brexit vote and pretty much every university student was a new voter since then. But the Tories were elected in a landslide on a Get Brexit Done platform.

Luckily, Biden is far less divisive than Corbyn and polling much better.

Probably helps that Biden's in a party quite (rightfully) desperate to unseat the Republicans, unlike the Labour right who preferred to see the Tories win than their own party under a social democratic platform.
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Old 08-11-2020, 07:32 AM   #833
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Probably helps that Biden's in a party quite (rightfully) desperate to unseat the Republicans, unlike the Labour right who preferred to see the Tories win than their own party under a social democratic platform.


Very true, Corbyn was divisive with both the public and his own party. Shame, his manifesto was a huge step in the right direction for the UK. Thankfully, the Dems have a wholesome American powdered toast man as their candidate and it’s the GOP who are more torn with their leader’s platform (even if they fall in line with the majority).
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:00 AM   #834
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So, it might just be something to throw people off, but speaker schedule for the DNC was released.

Listed speakers included Warren, Whitmer and Harris. Also listed separately "VP nominee"

hmmmmm...

I really was hoping it would be Harris and not Rice. sigh. But again, it might just be something to keep us guessing.
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:30 AM   #835
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so you're telling me my +1600 bet on Stacey Abrams is still alive?
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Old 08-11-2020, 11:00 AM   #836
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so you're telling me my +1600 bet on Stacey Abrams is still alive?
That was first thought!

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Old 08-11-2020, 11:32 AM   #837
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coughvaldemingscough
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Old 08-11-2020, 11:40 AM   #838
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Hahahahaha

https://twitter.com/django/status/1292987703806525440
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Old 08-11-2020, 11:43 AM   #839
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coughvaldemingscough
I would REALLY have to hand it to the Biden team if this was the case. To think that maybe they purposefully "leaked" that Rice, Bass and Harris were the final three the last couple weeks, only to come out with Demings, would be something. But alas, I doubt it.

Further thought on the DNC schedule, I kinda forgot that literally nobody but Biden and maybe one or two other people know the pick. Which means whoever was in charge of putting together a schedule, most likely had no information to work with. So probably not a tell of any kind.
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:09 PM   #840
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For your entertainment

https://mobile.twitter.com/RawStory/...97477789794305
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