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Old 08-06-2020, 11:41 PM   #761
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US Politics XXIV: Your Country Sucks

Poll averages are stupid and statistically meaningless, let’s not.
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Old 08-06-2020, 11:56 PM   #762
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-at-her-peak/
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:00 AM   #763
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Oh ok cool I'll just shut the fuck up then
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:00 AM   #764
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Polling averages are valid to indicate trends but they do not indicate any form of static instantaneous value so it’s really irrelevant where Clinton and trump were “at this point.”
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:32 AM   #765
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Also, at this point Clinton was also enjoying her convention bump.

The undecided broke hard for Trump after the Comey letter in the final hours of the campaign.
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:33 AM   #766
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In the meantime feel free to enjoy the best nature our country has to offer at Yo, Semites National Park.


Got some takeout tonight. Delicious Pad Thigh.
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Old 08-07-2020, 01:41 AM   #767
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I think Headaches point is that a 2.5% squeeze over the last couple weeks is the trend, but I also agree that you can’t really compare to Clinton on the same date because that’s apples and oranges.

Couple of reasons here for the Biden decline.
The last week and a half has had poorer quality online polling.

Also, RCP seems to include far fewer polls than 538.
The dip for Biden today was due to two right leaning pollsters, Rasmussen and The Hill. For example, Rasmussen had Trumps approval at +4 a couple days ago when the average is around -17.
538 includes a lot more polls, and there can be some wild swings between pollsters, but I think it usually provides a better overall picture.

I think we are on the verge of an upswing for Biden with the VP pick and convention. But the bigger point is that unless Biden can keep his lead up over 7 or 8, then its getting too close. You can bet Trump can scrape a few points up with dirty tricks and voter suppression. Who knows what other news could hit or other unexpected things could shift things. Gotta get our asses donating and volunteering so we don’t have to regret not doing more on Nov 4th.
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Old 08-07-2020, 01:42 AM   #768
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Fucking idiot. :

https://mobile.twitter.com/ddale8/st...70848612868096
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:12 AM   #769
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https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...69973119393793

Several sources tell me that Joe Biden has chosen his VP running mate.

Hope they are smart enough to wait and announce early next week.
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Old 08-07-2020, 11:20 AM   #770
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Nate Cohn weighs in this morning on what I was talking about last night with the RCP poll average. A good lengthy thread about recent polling. In summary, little high quality live polling in the last few weeks, RCP does include some polls and doesn't include some with little reason why, probably going to get a ton of polls coming out in the next week and a half before the DNC, and even with all that, there does seem to be tightening in the polls, but still not sure if that will get turned around when the new round of polls comes out or not.

I can say that we are definitely seeing less Biden +12's from the good pollsters and more Biden around +8 and +9. So we will see when these higher quality polls come out, if they stay at that number or if they inch back up to double digits.


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...29758871588865
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Old 08-07-2020, 02:13 PM   #771
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Just a follow up. In the last week, the polling average for Biden on 538 without Rasmussen and The Hill is 9.0. Add those two and it's 7.8
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Old 08-07-2020, 02:37 PM   #772
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Susan Rice just dumped her Netflix stock.
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Old 08-07-2020, 02:40 PM   #773
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Maybe she’s a Hulu girl ?
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Old 08-07-2020, 02:45 PM   #774
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I love how all of our politicians are wealthy enough to have A noticeable amount of stock in Netflix.
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Old 08-07-2020, 03:18 PM   #775
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Susan Rice just dumped her Netflix stock.
Conflict of interest concerns as Veep candidate?
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Old 08-07-2020, 03:19 PM   #776
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politi...iffs-1.5055241

Is it November yet?
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Old 08-08-2020, 12:39 AM   #777
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So, Jerry Falwell Jr and his unbuttoned pants could be the case in point that could explain a lot of the Trump fealty. It seems likely that he and his wife swing, are both probably bisexual, and Trump/Cohen/National Enquirer have at least nude photos and likely more (possibly involving the pool boy) and that’s how they negotiated a big endorsement and kept him so intensely loyal. One would imagine Trump has the same on Lady G, very possibly others. Certainly these folks don’t want to be primaried by rabid Trumpers, but with a long history of “catch and kill,” the blackmail is probably even more persuasive.

Imagine the hell all these lives must be.
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Old 08-08-2020, 09:05 AM   #778
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August 8, 2020 | 7:49 AM
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer traveled to Delaware last weekend to meet with Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee’s first known in-person session with a potential running mate as he nears a decision.

Whitmer visited Biden Sunday, according to two high-ranking Michigan Democrats who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The first-term governor of the battleground state has long been on his short list of possible running mates.

Flight records show a chartered plane left Lansing’s Capital Region International Airport for Delaware Coastal Airport at 5:33 p.m. and returned at 11:16 p.m.

The governor’s office declined to confirm or deny the trip.

“We don’t discuss her personal schedule,” spokeswoman Tiffany Brown said.

Biden’s campaign declined to comment.

He has spent months weighing who would serve alongside him if he wins in November. Biden has pledged to select a woman and has conducted an expansive search, including Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, California Rep. Karen Bass and former Obama national security adviser Susan Rice.

Biden is facing calls to select a Black woman to acknowledge their crucial role in Democratic politics and in response to the nation’s reckoning with systemic racism.

Whitmer has sought to address racism and racial inequity. In April, she created a task force to address the pandemic’s racial disparities and later proposed police reforms in the wake of George Floyd’s death. On Wednesday — days after visiting Biden — she declared racism a public health crisis, created an advisory council of Black leaders and required implicit bias training for all state employees.

If Whitmer is chosen to join the ticket and Biden wins, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II would become the country’s only Black governor.

Biden and Whitmer formed a bond after he campaigned for her in the 2018 gubernatorial election. She is a co-chair on his campaign.
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Old 08-08-2020, 09:33 AM   #779
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That would be a very Tim Kaine type pick i think. Tho i think she’s done a masterful job with Covid. My thoughts are Biden picks her as VP to run a National covid response. But not the most inspiring pick.

We need to get Biden in there first and each day Trump is making it more difficult


https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/sta...828259331?s=21

He’s going to say FL Mail is good, OH/PA/WI etc mail is bad!!!
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Old 08-08-2020, 09:41 AM   #780
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https://twitter.com/crampell/status/...988065794?s=21
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