US Politics XXIV: Your Country Sucks

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Hewson said:
And therefore the first domino to fall in Trump's re-election if he selects her or any white person.
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I totally agree.

If he's not going with a black woman, then Elizabeth Warren would be head and shoulders above the rest.

But he really can't go there.
 
Polls also show a overwhelming difference between political parties on who’s willing to vote in person

Last one i saw showed over 65% of GOP voters will go to polls despite covid.

About the same % of Dems plant to vote by mail

I’m afraid we will need to risk our health to get him out
 
It's a bit bleak that Biden has chosen a Republican apologist for the Contras as his campaign's Latino outreach but at the same time it's wholly predictable.
 
https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/1292177352475246592?s=21

Sometimes i think i should unfollow Seth because he blows up my timeline with 1000 post threads but he occasionally has some worthwhile nuggets thrown out there (in between his book plugs)

I think Obama didn’t push too hard on the Russia meddling because he and everyone else were convinced Clinton would win.

Nancy is doing the same thing. The Dems should be holding hearing after hearing and speaking out in public every single day about what’s happening.

But her position has been the same since 2017, let the voters decide. He’s not worth it all the trouble.

Look at where we are now because of inaction
 
As we await a slew of new polling this coming week, including higher quality live polls, I went back to see not the national number, but Biden's lead in swing states and how that has changed over the last month or so.

I found that it almost mirrors the national narrowing. Change from mid to late June highs during the Floyd protests to today range from a decrease of .5 to 3%, with the majority falling solidly around a 2 point decrease in Biden's lead.

Now to be fair, a lot of the state polls these past few weeks has also been lower quality online polling, and includes some of the more questionable pollsters. But it will be interesting to see if the polls remain steady like this for a while, or if Bidens numbers go back up a bit both pre and post VP/convention.

Obviously the convention will not give the same bounce as usual because of it being virtual. So I'm guessing we see a 1 to 1.5 point uptick when polls come out the week after the convention. But it might very well be erased with the GOP convention following close behind.

Important things to remember is that now, some of this rides on Senate making a deal for Covid relief, and then also, by September 1st, it will be about 20 to 30 days before a good amount of states start mailing in their ballots.
 
I’m concerned the polls are meaningless if the election is tampered with.
 
Irvine511 said:
This has always been my thing. His taste is so objectively gaudy and disgusting, an aspirational brand for assholes. Who finds him inspiring or aspirational? Other than assholes?
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It's definitely something he can bond over with his friends in the Middle East.
 
BEAL said:
I’m concerned the polls are meaningless if the election is tampered with.
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Depends on the type of tampering. If it is just Russia doing misinformation, and the mail being slowed down, then I think if Biden heads into November with a 4-5 point lead or higher in MI, WI, and PA, and hopefully FL, or AZ or NC, then it should fine. If it's closer to 3 or less, then we may be in trouble. Or if the interference is something just outrageous, that we haven't even thought of yet, then well, all bets are off.

I'm actually someone that thinks Biden will actually outperform the polls this time around. I think that Trumps 36% immovable base will be there. But I think that the very large majority of those that are leaning away from him, will either stay home or go for Biden. I don't think anyone that has doubts about voting for Trump again, are really going to proactively vote for four more years (that will be much much worse) with Trump.
 
I think it’s a certainty that Trump will get fewer votes than he did in 2016. It just depends on how much he can suppress the vote as well as lean in to the preposterous rural bias built into our 18th century political system. It’s delivering minorty rule.

Everyone should keep in mind that only one Republican has gotten more votes than his opponent since 1988. And that was in 2004, and that was a squeaker.
 
BEAL said:
I’m concerned the polls are meaningless if the election is tampered with.
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This is why Biden desperately needs huge margins, everywhere.

The tightening in the polls doesn't really worry me regarding the ultimate (true) outcome, but it's incredibly concerning from the point of view that it's one thing to steal a close election and another to steal one where the other guy's actual lead and votes received are in the double digits.
 
A majority of swing stated don’t count mail ballots if they arrive after Election Day, despite having post mark before.

Reports are coming in from all over the country that mail is already falling behind. Vets not getting their meds, people not receiving paychecks on time.

Trump always tells us what he’s doing by accusing his opponent of doing the same thing
 
anitram said:
This is why Biden desperately needs huge margins, everywhere.

The tightening in the polls doesn't really worry me regarding the ultimate (true) outcome, but it's incredibly concerning from the point of view that it's one thing to steal a close election and another to steal one where the other guy's actual lead and votes received are in the double digits.
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I think that we can definitely expect ANY state that Trump loses by less than 3 points to be held up in court for weeks or more. Right now that possible list is fairly long. NC, OH, FL, GA, AZ, (88 total Electoral Votes) and possibly TX and Alaska (another 41 Electoral Votes)
 
BEAL said:
A majority of swing stated don’t count mail ballots if they arrive after Election Day, despite having post mark before.

Reports are coming in from all over the country that mail is already falling behind. Vets not getting their meds, people not receiving paychecks on time.

Trump always tells us what he’s doing by accusing his opponent of doing the same thing
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I totally am infuriated by the Post Office thing. But I do think that for the most part early voting is now a long period in almost every state. That helps. Mail in ballots can be sent weeks in advance as well. 95% of those ballots will be traveling locally, so even if a 2 day trip is now 4 or 6, most should be ok.

The biggest trouble we will have are these states:

If a voter's mail-in ballot arrives after Election Day in the following states, it will not be accepted by officials: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Of these, WI and AZ probably scare me the most. But funny enough. My old home state of FL, could be savior here. HUGE amounts of people have been voting by mail in FL for years and years. I voted by mail every year, even though i didn't have to.
The system is longstanding and I think even the corrupt Gov. and Senator there want it to go smoothly, since they think that it could actually hurt Trump for it not to.
FL will also count ballots if they are postmarked by Election day.

I will be going in person in TN to vote for sure. I don't even trust the mailman with my ballot around here.
 
womanfish said:
But funny enough. My old home state of FL, could be savior here. HUGE amounts of people have been voting by mail in FL for years and years. I voted by mail every year, even though i didn't have to.
The system is longstanding and I think even the corrupt Gov. and Senator there want it to go smoothly, since they think that it could actually hurt Trump for it not to.
FL will also count ballots if they are postmarked by Election day.
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There was a story a while back about how Florida's getting a lot more registered Democrats, and then recently there was the whole thing of Trump trying to sue Nevada over its mail-in voting, but was okay with leaving Florida be.

If that leads to Florida going blue, I'm going to fucking laugh.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
I see no reason to believe Trump is worried about his DeSantis or Kemp mail votes - a luxury he doesn’t have in Nevada.
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Yeah Nevada is safe territory. I also think that MI has their shit on lock with a good Sec of State and Governor that is going to making sure it will run well. Probably the biggest doubt that GA or TX will go blue are the governors and state legislatures there.
 
Some polling starting to roll in.

National

A/B rated pollster - Biden +13

State

WI - Biden +6
PA - Biden +9
Mi - Biden +4
AZ - Biden +4

Expecting a lot of polls today through Wednesday or Thursday. Will be interesting to see how things shake out especially with some of the larger pollsters.
 
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