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Old 07-15-2020, 11:09 AM   #281
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US Politics XXIV: Your Country Sucks

Yeah, with the wealth of legitimate things to mock her over, I don’t think photoshopping a woman so she’s holding a dildo is a good move.

Let’s be better than that, please.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:34 AM   #282
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Really don’t like this. Would prefer not to see. No political value detected. Seems sexist.


Agreed
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Old 07-15-2020, 12:25 PM   #283
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https://twitter.com/markknoller/stat...539317251?s=19



The slope... it's so slippery.
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Old 07-15-2020, 12:34 PM   #284
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he wants a war.
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Old 07-15-2020, 12:35 PM   #285
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Oh boya


one-eyed beans?
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Old 07-15-2020, 05:55 PM   #286
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Sorry, I was trying to point out that with all the fails that she's had, presenting social media with the easiest photoshop setup other than a white sign is probably not a great idea.

I apologize! sorry guys.
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Old 07-15-2020, 06:02 PM   #287
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some major polling out today

General Election:

6 polls range from +3 Biden from Rasmussen to +15 from Quinnipiac. Average is Biden +9.2

Monmouth has
Biden +10 In PA.

Change Research has Biden

PA +8
WI +6
NC +1
MI +6
FL +7
AZ +6

Also, a late Gravis poll yesterday had Biden +10 in FL
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Old 07-15-2020, 06:22 PM   #288
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+1 NC makes me feel like I’m not trusting their polling at all. By all means, NC is catching blue fever from Virginia, and is a safer bet for Biden than Florida or Texas or Georgia.

With that being said, I’m being my own fool here and buying into what I would normally criticize.
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Old 07-15-2020, 06:26 PM   #289
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+1 NC makes me feel like I’m not trusting their polling at all. By all means, NC is catching blue fever from Virginia, and is a safer bet for Biden than Florida or Texas or Georgia.
what makes you say that?

fivethirtyeight has had biden polling around +2 or +3 pretty much since mid-june.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/
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Old 07-15-2020, 08:13 PM   #290
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what makes you say that?



fivethirtyeight has had biden polling around +2 or +3 pretty much since mid-june.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/

I’m not concerned with North Carolina’s numbers being legit. I’m concerned that North Carolina, compared to other current purplish states, is the one that looks normal while they all look pretty blue.

Florida? I could believe my home taste would abandon Trump as quickly as they hopped on his bandwagon. Florida is, in fact, the king bandwagon state, and follows momentum like it’s nobody’s business. Texas? No. Georgia? No. North Carolina? Yes.

North Carolina, for the last three presidential elections, has exhibited a tendency to not liking who is in power. Going into Bush, Democrats saw their spread worsen each election (all general elections, not just presidential). Bush came, and then at each election, republican spread worsened. Obama came, and thought his presidency did in fact show the same inflection (Democrats lost ground in 2010), they were able to ride the obama national train in 2012 to some recovery, only to continue the trend in 2014 and 2016.

So Trump has already started that trend, becoming the inflection point where NC voters have bluened up and spread is in their favor.

So if North Carolina exhibits such a trend and we wish to believe that trend as true, then these polling numbers are right on par for where we would expect North Carolina to go. But why is North Carolina the odd one out? Why is every swing state getting some big blue wave, but North Carolina (and Arizona) seem to be immune to it? Suspect. One of these things probably isn’t true, IMO.

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Old 07-15-2020, 08:19 PM   #291
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oh yes i can see it quite clearly now.

 
what you said makes sense. it's weird.
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Old 07-15-2020, 08:23 PM   #292
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Idk why that picture compressed to like six pixels but I was too lazy to either sign on on my web browse or email it to my phone.
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Old 07-15-2020, 08:40 PM   #293
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+1 NC makes me feel like I’m not trusting their polling at all. By all means, NC is catching blue fever from Virginia, and is a safer bet for Biden than Florida or Texas or Georgia.

With that being said, I’m being my own fool here and buying into what I would normally criticize.
Yeah, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more movement on NC. It seems like one day it will be Biden up 4 and the next Trump up 2. Yet it seems that Cunningham has opened up a real lead there. I can’t see people shifting to Cunningham and not Biden. Kind of odd.
So I would still group it in the super tight group of swing states along with OH, IA, TX GA and unfortunately AZ has slipped into tight category recently. And strangely since Rep Governor Duecy has fallen by like 30 points on approval. But all these are within margin of error. But I do feel like it has the potential to swing harder toward Biden On Election Day, than polls are showing. This has been true in NC and SC in recent years.

Next level that I think is sliding to safe Biden (for now) would be FL. It has now been a solid 6.5 points up for a little over a month.

And looking like the next level up is WI, MI and PA. Looking much more like a typical non-2016 election year. 7 to 9 points up in each.

So a great result would be winning the 3 Midwest states, FL, and half of the tight ones.
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Old 07-15-2020, 08:50 PM   #294
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Regardless of polls, I would never call Florida “safe.”

How many times has Florida’s population of twenty gazillion came within 10,000 votes? How many times has it come within 1,000?
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Old 07-15-2020, 09:50 PM   #295
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I'm buying champagne on election day so I can get wasted no matter who wins, but I'll buy a second bottle if Biden takes Florida.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:27 PM   #296
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If on election night, Biden starts out with a Florida win, I might even do a line of coke!

PS. I wonder when Bloomberg is going to spend all that money to help Biden.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:51 PM   #297
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I'm buying champagne on election day so I can get wasted no matter who wins, but I'll buy a second bottle if Biden takes Florida.
If Biden wins and we take the Senate I’ll buy 2 more. If Mitch and Lindsay lose I’ll buy a case!
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:42 AM   #298
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If Mitch loses it’s not a party, it’s a somber nod.

If Graham loses, we party and don’t stop laughing.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:50 AM   #299
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This is NOT 2016, exhibit 47:

I believe in the Monmouth poll of PA,
Biden is up in the swing counties by 17%
Hillary won the same counties by 1 point.

Just a note on Florida. I lived there for 11 years til 2018. Yes it can be maddening at times. But I do think it has some things going for it this time that make it different. Biden is killing it with older voters, Puerto Rican’s want nothing to do with Trump this time, there are numerous, large suburban areas, and very importantly, it has been a very heavy vote by mail state for a long time. So I actually trust the ballots here more than places like WI, where I grew up. It’s full of dirty trickster state legislators.

And last, not to get too ahead, but looking at the Senate right now

Solid Dem
AZ/CO/NC

Lean Dem
IA/ME

Tied
MT/SC/KY

Lean R
KS/AL

Solid R
TX

And I don’t think that GA is settled enough yet to know what to expect.

My best guess would be Dems flip 6 but lose one in AL, ending up with the majority. Possibly net 6 if they pick up one GA seat.
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Old 07-16-2020, 01:54 AM   #300
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If Mitch loses it’s not a party, it’s a somber nod.

If Graham loses, we party and don’t stop laughing.
If I had to make a wager, my bet would be that Mitch squeaks by and Lindsey loses by a couple points. Harrison is a much greater threat than McGrath in my opinion.
It would be so sweet to see him lose after hitching onto Trump. Thinking back to his own words.
“If we chose Trump, we will lose, and we’ll deserve it”
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