US Politics XXIII: Law & Order SOU (Stupid Orange Unit)

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And Joe is running a near perfect campaign right now which is “stay out of the way while Trump hangs himself”. He’ll have to come out in the open soon though and hopefully he’s been preparing, role playing debates, etc.
 
mikal said:
And Joe is running a near perfect campaign right now which is “stay out of the way while Trump hangs himself”. He’ll have to come out in the open soon though and hopefully he’s been preparing, role playing debates, etc.
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He certainly needs to have well rehearsed, replies to the obvious accusations that Trump will make and stupid questions that moderators will make.
Gotta have all that at the ready to hit back with.

I do think Biden is missing a moment here that could give him command of one news cycle. The total stupidity of the protesters in Madison WI. My old town and Alma Mater, pissed me off so much. I think Biden should have come out and made a video statement or gone on Maddow or something and he should demand that the statues be retrieved, repaired and put back, and make a statement that he supports the protests, and for all removal of confederate and slave owner statues, but that tearing down statues of women's rights activists, and abolitionists will not be tolerated and it weakens the voice of real protesters fighting for justice and reform.

I think that he needs to recognize that he is winning in large part because of college educated women/suburbanites.
But you will start to lose some if they see this sort of shit happening. You have them because they want safety, stability, and leadership.
I think it would be a safe, strong show of leadership, that would both voice support for protesters, call out confederate bullshit and show the voters that he will step in when needed.
 
Simple for Biden, no debates unless Trump releases his taxes.

No need to debate Trump. Biden has so much to lose and little to gain.

All Trump has to do is not sniffle 300 billion times and the media will proclaim “A new, more presidential Trump!!??”

If Biden has any gaffe, he’ll be torn to shreds.
 
Let's be honest here, this is a referendum on Trump. If Joe Biden spends the next 4 months holed up in his basement, it wouldn't make much of a difference. People aren't going to be turning out in droves to vote for Biden - he basically inspires nobody. His constituency are (i) people who may be politically agnostic or in the middle or don't care but DO want a return to some sort of normalcy/civility and (ii) people who hate Trump's guts and would vote for a household pet before him. That's it. Biden doesn't have to convince anyone, doesn't have to run on a policy, questionable whether he even needs a policy - not in the long term, obviously, but between now and November.

I'd lay low if I were him. Trump is all to happy to do the job for him.
 
anitram said:
Let's be honest here, this is a referendum on Trump. If Joe Biden spends the next 4 months holed up in his basement, it wouldn't make much of a difference. People aren't going to be turning out in droves to vote for Biden - he basically inspires nobody. His constituency are (i) people who may be politically agnostic or in the middle or don't care but DO want a return to some sort of normalcy/civility and (ii) people who hate Trump's guts and would vote for a household pet before him. That's it. Biden doesn't have to convince anyone, doesn't have to run on a policy, questionable whether he even needs a policy - not in the long term, obviously, but between now and November.

I'd lay low if I were him. Trump is all to happy to do the job for him.
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Agreed entirely. Just don’t do anything stupid. Leave that to agent orange.
 
the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas
 
DaveC said:
the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas
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That’s what a lot of people think. But I disagree somewhat.
Here’s what people aren’t really thinking through.
What worked for Trump to draw a larger base than he has now? He attacked Obama, a black guy, and Clinton, a woman.
This worked because sadly, racism, fear and unease of blackness, and sexism and misogyny are real and more potent than we might like to admit.
That puts Booker, Harris, Warren, Amy at a disadvantage.
Bloomberg might have been ok because of his money, but to have him as the candidate with a public awakening on racism in policing... oy. Could be a tough one.

Then you have Bernie. He would have faired pretty well I think. But we have to remember why Biden is winning big right now.
Women, African Americans, suburbanites, Seniors and independents.
Bernie was fairly weak with all these, except independents, and extremely weak with seniors. He would have made up some ground with younger voters.
He also had a ready made attack from Trump. It would have been non-stop socialism, communism, no more America as we know it, etc... And yes, he might try say those things about Biden. But for Bernie it would be believable to many, and with Biden it has shown that it is not.

Biden, in the NYT poll has a 39 point lead with women with a degree. All women by 22, And winning independents by 29 points.

I think again like I’ve said before, any of the candidates could win. I just don’t think any could win by a lot and have the down ballot effect that Biden will.

Again, it’s all about the EC.

Bernie probably would be able to pick up WI, MI and PA and win by a whopping 20 points, and probably enter the White House with a minority in the Senate.
I don’t think he would have a chance in FL or NC. He certainly wouldn’t be making OH, TX and GA possible pickups.
AZ might be the only other state that I could see in the mix.

Polls will tighten, changes will happen, and Biden might be the only one that would be able to win decisively in the end.
 
DaveC said:
the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas
Click to expand...



There’s the Senate. Winning the Senate is almost as important if you want any health care reform. Voters in states with vulnerable GOP incumbents aren’t pining for the revolution.
 
Irvine511 said:
Latest NYTimes poll:


MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
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Wow is about all I can say.

A couple of views on this. One, these have a small sample size and 4 point margin of error. But they are still an A+ pollster. So even if you give 2 points to Trump on these, they are still crushing numbers.

Also, these polls were taken well before Tulsa, well before Az, well before the public has seen record numbers of new cases, well before racist rants.

These numbers could be just the beginning of even worse numbers for Trump.
 
womanfish said:
Even with everything that has gone on over the past few months, and yes along with the previous 3 years. You still have media and "journalists" straining to make this another 2016. The both-sideism, the using terms about Trump like "unprecedented" or unconventional, and making sure to note that Biden is also a flawed candidate. Yes idiots. EVERY candidate is flawed candidate. But it would be like two cars. One has a broken headlight and scratch on the door, and the other one is on fire.

Since Joe is playing rope-a-dope with Trump, the media and NYT in particular, can't stand it. They need to have this be a close race with bad stories on both sides to feel like they are doing something i guess.

anyway. Great quote from one of my favorite authors.

EbN7tUNXgAArvaA
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To be clear, in this analogy, Joe Biden would be a plate of a shit that you've been assured has had the glass picked out of it.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
Sanders stans will say he'd be in the same spot, non Sanders stans will say nah bro, and there's zero chance of proving that either one is correct.

Alas
Click to expand...
If you don't think a global pandemic that serves as a referendum for a fragile economy and completely broken healthcare system wouldn't make Bernie Sanders look good in comparison to Donald Trump, you're out of your mind. I know this proves your point because I'm a "Sanders stan" (despite the fact that I'm pretty bitterly pissed at him for how much he's fallen in line AND his refusal to call to defund the police), but it should be stated anyway.
 
[TWEET]1276154794915377154[/TWEET]

Thank you, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, for ... [checking notes] ... voting with the 7-2 majority to ruin the lives of immigrants.
 
Just a shit load of polls today. Here are the NON-NYT Sienna polls that were listed before.

National

CNBC (A- Rated) - Biden +9

WI -
Biden +9
Biden +17 (Partisan Poll)

MI -
Biden +11
Biden +18 (Partisan Poll)

PA -
Biden +10
Biden +12 (Partisan Poll)

NC -
Biden +6

AZ -
Biden +4

FL -
Biden +4


Also

Kelly +15 in AZ
and
Cunningham +9 in NC

Really wish they would get IA, OH, GA and TX in on these...
 
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