US Politics XXIII: Law & Order SOU (Stupid Orange Unit)

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I guess my question is. If 10 million people filed for unemployment in May, how does the number come out to 2.5 million jobs added? Is that saying that 12.5 million people went back to work? 12.5 - 10 = 2.5?

I just don't see how these numbers add up. I can see there being 2.5 million jobs coming back, but that would also be in the midst of 10 million more losing their jobs.
Obviously I wouldn't normally doubt these types of numbers but Trump has managed to infiltrate and corrupt pretty much every department of the government, so I think skepticism is warranted.
Because it's month-to-month. There were 2.5 million more jobs this month than last month. The jobs numbers are intentionally meant to obfuscate what's going on. One of the great successes for the GOP over the last 40-50 years was making employment numbers (along with stock market performance) the indicators of economic success instead of spending power.
 
Ok, these new unemployment numbers are complete bullshit.

10 million people lost their jobs in 2008 - unemployment 10%

30 million people were out of a job at the end of April 2020 - unemployment 14.7% (seemed low then)

40 million people out of work at end of May 2020 - unemployment rate 13.3%?????
Experts were estimating 8 million lost jobs and it ends up 2.5 million gained? WTF is going on here.

It's because the way you look at unemployment numbers includes three groups - employed, unemployed, and not in the labour force (i.e. unemployed but NOT currently looking for work).

The people not in the labour force were not counted in the unemployment rate in April but they were counted in May because states started to open meaning that those unemployed but not looking for work in April were employed in May.

The unemployment rate formula does not factor in those not in the labour force. Typically the numbers are not that skewed from month to month but there isn't any funny business - it's how it's always been calculated.
 
New Fox News polls out today

Arizona:
Biden. 46%
Trump 42

Kelly (D) 50%
McSally (R) 37

Arizona would be particularly satisfying.

Leave it to the GOP to force a woman who already lost a general state election into the second Senate seat to hopefully lose that one as well. Brilliant.
 
It's because the way you look at unemployment numbers includes three groups - employed, unemployed, and not in the labour force (i.e. unemployed but NOT currently looking for work).

The people not in the labour force were not counted in the unemployment rate in April but they were counted in May because states started to open meaning that those unemployed but not looking for work in April were employed in May.

The unemployment rate formula does not factor in those not in the labour force. Typically the numbers are not that skewed from month to month but there isn't any funny business - it's how it's always been calculated.

I'm not questioning your explanation here. But if this is the case, why would experts that make these predictions and calculations for a living and should know most about what is happening in the job market, predict 8 million jobs lost? The experts outside of the government are off by 10.5 million?

Are the experts including the people that "should" be counted as unemployed and the government leaving out huge swaths of people by categorizing them in a way to fudge the numbers?
 
What makes you think this system can be tweaked into working for everyone?



You need to define “revolution,” first. What is that? What does it look like? It’s difficult to respond directly until you offer more specifics.


As for me, I believe in democracy and I believe in procedure. You can’t blow up a system by attacking it frontally. There are real and intended constraints that have been put there to guard against “revolution” — and they are there to protect both sides (what’s to stop a right wing “revolution”?) In order to be successful, you must accept and understand these restraints and work within them.

I do think things continue to get better, despite setbacks, like the setback we’re living in now. Life is, by every measure and metric better than it was in 1968, let alone 1938 or 1888. And change sticks when it’s achieved legitimately. Social movements like BLM or same-sex marriage have more success in shorter amounts of time than any of the social movements of the past. And I expect them to continue. Same-sex marriage is very nearly settled law — barring some kind of religious right “revolution” — because it is legitimate. It’s safe. It’s a battle that was won over the course of about a decade (although it’s roots are in the AIDS crisis) and it was won thriguh hearts & minds as well as court cases and legislation. No one imposed it by fiat, and you’ll recall that when Gavin Newsome tried to do as much — “whether you like it or not” — we got Prop 8.

These are tactical disagreements — again, I can only assume, because you’re often short on specifics. We likely share 90%+ of the same end goals. I find the tactics you advocate to be much more likely to end in failure and reversal of progress.
 
I'm not questioning your explanation here. But if this is the case, why would experts that make these predictions and calculations for a living and should know most about what is happening in the job market, predict 8 million jobs lost? The experts outside of the government are off by 10.5 million?

I should clarify, I was strictly talking about the way they calculate numbers, not about whether they are being truthful about the numbers included.

The consensus was definitely far worse than the numbers. But there are a few reasons why I don't think they are necessarily cooking the books. First, if you look at the subcategories, the positive growth is in areas that you'd expect. Second, economic forecasts are basically broken right now. Consensus was also considerably off in March and April, in the other direction - i.e. economists didn't think that the numbers would be as bad as they were. Third, on a per capita basis, the numbers are almost exactly mirroring those in Canada, suggesting that they are reflecting reality.

There are also reasons to doubt - the payroll losses and other weekly data throughout the month of May are at odds with the final numbers. But taken on the whole I think the numbers are probably not as shocking as some people are making them out to be.

The problem is that it really might look like a V-curve recovery through the summer/fall, helping the Orange Menace (undeservedly).
 
And immediately there’s a Trump press conference / rally stating this may be the greatest day ever!!! All because of him!!

The truth is Trump and a lot of red State Governments forced people back into work during a pandemic. Without knowing the full effect it would have on their communities. The virus may appear to have weakened with summer time coming into focus, but we are still losing over 1,000 people per day to this.

But their lives don’t matter to Trump and GOP, only getting out of paying unemployment benefits and creating the illusion of a prosperous economy (despite the reality of 14% unemployment and 20-35 million job losses)

This will give them even more reason to loosen restrictions as we head into the fall. We have seen other countries like South Korea and Germany deal with outbreaks for schools and businesses opening up too soon or opening without knowing how to keep the virus in check. But these countries are also doing so much more in regards to their preparation and diligence with the virus. We are not. And we will see a repeat of Spanish flu if this virus comes back hard in the fall.

Trump congratulating himself and bringing Floyd’s name into his rally was wrong but what do we expect. George is looking down today from heaven and smiling because of the equality that now exists because of Trump

All of this said from his new fortress (White House).

The media will play these sound bites over and over, and people will think things are OK! Masks, we don’t need not stinking masks!! Protesters !!! Why protest, Trump said things are ok! Now you’re just doing it because you’re ANTIFA.

Biden will give remarks on the economic numbers later and i wonder how much coverage itll get. Will it be carried live ?

It’s so difficult to watch all of this unfold again like 2016.

I do have a question that maybe someone we’ll versed in history of democracy can answer

Has a country ever descended towards authoritarian rule like we are, and stopped it before it was too late ?

We still hold the assumption that November election will be fair. That there won’t be national guard + militia standing out front of polling places to scare minorities. That cops won’t issue mass arrests the week or day of the election to curb turnout

I see everything that is going on and i ask how does it stop? How do we win in a rigged game ?
 
You can’t blow up a system by attacking it frontally.

"sostén mi cerveza."

pancho-villa-9518733-2-402.jpg
 
Absolute fucking delusional sociopath

“Hopefully George is looking down right now and is saying this is a great thing that’s happening for our country. This is a great day for him. This is a great day for everybody. This is a great, great day in terms of equality,” Trump says, referring to George Floyd at WH event
 
I'm not questioning your explanation here. But if this is the case, why would experts that make these predictions and calculations for a living and should know most about what is happening in the job market, predict 8 million jobs lost? The experts outside of the government are off by 10.5 million?

Are the experts including the people that "should" be counted as unemployed and the government leaving out huge swaths of people by categorizing them in a way to fudge the numbers?
I'm not all in on the specifics as I read about this discrepancy a while ago. Basically, the jobless rate in the monthly employment reports do not accurately reflect reality due to how it is being calculated. In regular times it might be a good indicator, but these are not regular times. As already stated, the unemployment rate does not include people who do not have a job but are not looking for one. And it seems that in these times many who were furloughed during the crisis fit this category as they expect to be employed again once their (previous) company opens again. But they are counted when filing for jobless claims.

So it is not that the government is fudging the numbers, it is that the model used to calculate the numbers is a mismatch right now.
 
Absolute fucking delusional sociopath

“Hopefully George is looking down right now and is saying this is a great thing that’s happening for our country. This is a great day for him. This is a great day for everybody. This is a great, great day in terms of equality,” Trump says, referring to George Floyd at WH event

God I'm so glad I didn't see that. What a sick thing to say.
 
You need to define “revolution,” first. What is that? What does it look like? It’s difficult to respond directly until you offer more specifics.


As for me, I believe in democracy and I believe in procedure. You can’t blow up a system by attacking it frontally. There are real and intended constraints that have been put there to guard against “revolution” — and they are there to protect both sides (what’s to stop a right wing “revolution”?) In order to be successful, you must accept and understand these restraints and work within them.

I do think things continue to get better, despite setbacks, like the setback we’re living in now. Life is, by every measure and metric better than it was in 1968, let alone 1938 or 1888. And change sticks when it’s achieved legitimately. Social movements like BLM or same-sex marriage have more success in shorter amounts of time than any of the social movements of the past. And I expect them to continue. Same-sex marriage is very nearly settled law — barring some kind of religious right “revolution” — because it is legitimate. It’s safe. It’s a battle that was won over the course of about a decade (although it’s roots are in the AIDS crisis) and it was won thriguh hearts & minds as well as court cases and legislation. No one imposed it by fiat, and you’ll recall that when Gavin Newsome tried to do as much — “whether you like it or not” — we got Prop 8.

These are tactical disagreements — again, I can only assume, because you’re often short on specifics. We likely share 90%+ of the same end goals. I find the tactics you advocate to be much more likely to end in failure and reversal of progress.
I think we've seen that there isn't much there to stop a right wing revolution beyond the simple fact that right wing ideas are not that popular overall. If over half of this country was truly united behind the ideas espoused by the GOP, big business, and military industrial complex, we'd be an explicitly fascist state already.

Things are only improving if you look at things through a narrow lens. Civil rights have improved in the sense that it is now illegal to discriminate in certain ways against minority groups. They find ways around that, most of them economic. And things have unquestionably gotten worse economically since the 1960s. Social issues and technology are the places where we've seen progress and improvement, and even with the latter, that's only if your sole goal is discovery, unmoored from any sort of morality.

I think same-sex marriage is an exception to the rule in some sense. It didn't threaten anyone's pocket book at the end of the day. And it had the unique situation of being made the law of the land once in a sweeping fashion, which allowed people to realize how much it failed to actually threaten their day-to-day lives and give up their fervent opposition. It was unquestionably a good thing to have same-sex marriage become the law of the land. But the opposition was pretty content to give up the ghost when push came to shove. That energy has simply moved elsewhere. For example: by targeting trans people. But it's also moved other, somewhat unrelated places.

Anyway, moving on to some specifics.

My end goal on healthcare is universal healthcare through a single-payer system with the elimination of private insurance companies. And I would strongly argue, with lots of evidence, that the tactic of incrementalism there ends in failure and a reversal of progress.

My end goal on housing and poverty is a revitalized social safety net, guaranteed housing, the elimination of private and charter schools. Housing is healthcare, and a failure to acknowledge that is a failure to understand and attack the problem.

My end goal on foreign policy is an end to interventionist policies and a drastic scaledown of the military. I would strongly argue, with lots of evidence, that the move to proxy wars and drone strikes has been at minimum net neutral, but very likely worse, a failure, and a reversal of progress.

My end goal on labor is the breakup of monopolies and the nationalization of major corporations. A jobs guarantee, a reduction of the work week, a major increase in paid time off, child care, maternity and paternity leave, and ultimately the preparation for a society not built around work, as automation continues to move our society beyond the need to have everyone spend the bulk of their time on their jobs.

My end goal on policing is the abolition of the police. That includes the FBI and the CIA.

My end goal on racial justice is all of the things outlined above, as well as reparations. It's removing our support from Israel so long as they continue their unconscionable and illegal treatment of the Palestinian people.

And my end goal is to state unequivocally those as goals, and not hedge on them and start in compromise positions because they're big and bold compared to the current immoral and unjust system in place. I want to see candidates for office stating all of these things, from the local levels all the way on up. I want people to make the case for them with full confidence and voice and not apologize or play games. I want to see the half-measures called out for being failures and support for them eroded.

So no, I don't think Democrats share the same end goals.
 
Disarmament of the police is a great motion that will institutionalize change.

The FBI doesn’t need to be dismantled. I’m not sure why that’s on your radar.

The CIA has absolutely nothing to do with this.
 
Disarmament of the police is a great motion that will institutionalize change.

The FBI doesn’t need to be dismantled. I’m not sure why that’s on your radar.

The CIA has absolutely nothing to do with this.
I'm in favor of disarmament of police on the condition that it's directly tied to massive gun reform. Short of that? It's a step too far.

Demilitarizing our police? 100% on board, right here right now.

But I don't see how we can have a police force like they do in the UK without also addressing our nation's gun problem.
 
Anyway, moving on to some specifics.

My end goal on healthcare is universal healthcare through a single-payer system with the elimination of private insurance companies. And I would strongly argue, with lots of evidence, that the tactic of incrementalism there ends in failure and a reversal of progress.

My end goal on housing and poverty is a revitalized social safety net, guaranteed housing, the elimination of private and charter schools. Housing is healthcare, and a failure to acknowledge that is a failure to understand and attack the problem.

My end goal on foreign policy is an end to interventionist policies and a drastic scaledown of the military. I would strongly argue, with lots of evidence, that the move to proxy wars and drone strikes has been at minimum net neutral, but very likely worse, a failure, and a reversal of progress.

My end goal on labor is the breakup of monopolies and the nationalization of major corporations. A jobs guarantee, a reduction of the work week, a major increase in paid time off, child care, maternity and paternity leave, and ultimately the preparation for a society not built around work, as automation continues to move our society beyond the need to have everyone spend the bulk of their time on their jobs.

My end goal on policing is the abolition of the police. That includes the FBI and the CIA.

My end goal on racial justice is all of the things outlined above, as well as reparations. It's removing our support from Israel so long as they continue their unconscionable and illegal treatment of the Palestinian people.


i've gone through, without having seen your lots of evidence, what i can agree with and what i don't. there's a lot of agreement, but there's also little nuance here, not that this is a good forum for nuance right now. i would imagine there's common ground on many of the strikeout issues. maybe this is helpful. i'm also pretty sure that i would dispute a lot of your evidence, but, again, too much to get into at the moment.





And my end goal is to state unequivocally those as goals, and not hedge on them and start in compromise positions because they're big and bold compared to the current immoral and unjust system in place. I want to see candidates for office stating all of these things, from the local levels all the way on up. I want people to make the case for them with full confidence and voice and not apologize or play games. I want to see the half-measures called out for being failures and support for them eroded.

So no, I don't think Democrats share the same end goals.


how do you propose to win elections by only supporting politicians who would openly advocate for the objectively unpopular policies you describe?

it seems to me you dislike democracy.

also, i still don't have a definition from you of a "revolution."
 
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I'm in favor of disarmament of police on the condition that it's directly tied to massive gun reform. Short of that? It's a step too far.

Demilitarizing our police? 100% on board, right here right now.

But I don't see how we can have a police force like they do in the UK without also addressing our nation's gun problem.

And there's the sticking point. We have gone so far down certain roads, it is hard to rectify.
You have a nation with more guns than people. To completely disarm the police would be a dangerous prospect. There's no actual way that guns are banned here in the US, no way they could remove guns from the public.
So I just don't think there is any scenario where the police could not have weapons.

The difference to me is a police officer having a gun, and the police being turned into para-military the last decade or so.
There is sweeping change that needs to happen, much stricter guidelines on what weapons the police can have and how many, and when used, etc... and solid consequences if those guidelines are ever broken.

it's would be an immense undertaking, and one that hopefully would be paired with much much stricter gun laws in the country overall.
 
I'm in favor of disarmament of police on the condition that it's directly tied to massive gun reform. Short of that? It's a step too far.

Demilitarizing our police? 100% on board, right here right now.

But I don't see how we can have a police force like they do in the UK without also addressing our nation's gun problem.

The gun problem is an issue, not just in the sense that there are millions of guns and gun owners. Through the overt politicization of the SCOTUS (as well as lower and appeals courts), there are many extreme "stand your ground" laws on the books which exist nowhere else in the common law world.
 
If we make any additions to police budgets, it should involve developing curricula for prospective officers. They should be educated in history, anthropology, social work, and humanitarian and racial studies. If you're serving the people, you should learn a thing or two about them.

Prospective teachers have that content embedded into their coursework so their lesson plans will be effective for kids from all socioeconomic backgrounds (my program referred to this as the universal design for learning). If you're carrying a gun and intervening in volatile situations, imagine how much more important your responsibility is.
 
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I'm in favor of disarmament of police on the condition that it's directly tied to massive gun reform. Short of that? It's a step too far.

Demilitarizing our police? 100% on board, right here right now.

But I don't see how we can have a police force like they do in the UK without also addressing our nation's gun problem.



Agreed.

This solution doesn’t end racism, but it cuts off the oppression associated with imbalanced power and police brutality.

But yes, ultimately everyone needs to disarm. With that being said, police in the UK still have the ability to arm themselves. They don’t have side arms, and if police didn’t have standard arms like that, it’s more likely that they would police by consent and only commit actions that the public approves of.
 
If we make any additions to police budgets, it should involve developing curricula for prospective officers. They should be educated in history, anthropology, social work, and humanitarian and racial studies. If you're serving the people, you should learn a thing or two about them.

Prospective teachers have that content embedded into their coursework so their lesson plans will be effective for kids from all socioeconomic backgrounds (my program referred to this as the universal design for learning). If you're carrying a gun and intervening in volatile situations, imagine how much more important your responsibility is.



i applaud this approach. it's exactly what needs to start to happen.

i realize this isn't a popular thing to say this week, and i don't want this to be a "not all cops" post, but i have worked a lot with police departments in the past. sure, there's a few power-tripping assholes who were likely bullies in high school. but most of them are middle class guys (usually, some women) who are just trying to do their job, and want to do it well. some of them are very smart. and the really do see awful, awful things on a daily basis, and are plagued with their own set of social/health issues even long after retirement. no, it isn't an easy job. yes, they often do wonderful work and many times solve actual crimes through good work and bring some sense of closure to the families of victims.

you've suggested a great reframe that can effectively harnessing the good impulses that inspire people to go into law enforcement.
 
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