US Politics XXIII: Law & Order SOU (Stupid Orange Unit)

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Welcome to the resistance, Mad Dog.

“Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people — does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us,” Mattis wrote in a message published by the Atlantic.

“We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership," he continued. "We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.”
 
from The Atlantic...

James Mattis, the esteemed Marine general who resigned as secretary of defense in December 2018 to protest Donald Trump’s Syria policy, has, ever since, kept studiously silent about Trump’s performance as president. But he has now broken his silence, writing an extraordinary broadside in which he denounces the president for dividing the nation, and accuses him of ordering the U.S. military to violate the constitutional rights of American citizens.

A little late are we.....
Still, kind of extrodinary.
Let's see if it makes a difference somehow.
 
Last edited:
The words “Equal Justice Under Law” are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.

Mattis
 
Far right extremists arrested in both Las Vegas and Colorado for causing violence at protests, weapons, etc..

Also today, FBI concluded that Antifa is not the cause of any of the problems during the protests so far.
 
The reason that people remember the 2008 Obama victory as easier is because after the near collapse of the financial industry, McCain basically toppled over and never recovered. So yes, polls were close in June 2008 but not in October.

You never want to feel overly optimistic but it’s hard to see where Trump finds new votes. That has always been the issue.
 
You never want to feel overly optimistic but it’s hard to see where Trump finds new votes. That has always been the issue.

He has basically one hope and that is the economy rebounding at an unprecedented rate by October, hence his push for reopening everything.
 
This is the only priority. Nothing else matters.

I think the underlying polling data is pointing out some clear reasons for Biden having such a large lead nationally at the moment.

1. Biden is polling slightly better with younger voters than Clinton

2. Independents leaners and "soft" repubs vs. "soft" dems. - the indy leaners are leaning much harder for Biden on the Dem side than the indy leaners are leaning toward trump on the rep. side.
Also, same story with soft rep and soft dems. Soft Dems are going for Biden at almost the same rate as regular/solid Dem voters. Trump loses almost 20% from solid Rep to soft Rep.

3. The ones that don't like either candidate. Yes this encompasses a lot of the numbers in the last section. But this is where we see the real, very large shift.
This encompasses about 20% of the electorate. This is from the Cook Political report on May 20th (So BEFORE the protests began):

What I find very interesting is when you go back and you look at the exit polls in 2016, 60% of voters had an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. 60. 54% had an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton. And you had 19% had an unfavorable view of both of them. And then they voted, though, for Trump by a 20-point margin.

I asked the Quinnipiac people -- they're terrific, by the way -- I asked them today if they could run something to see, okay, of the people that have an unfavorable view of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, how do they break? And Biden is ahead 49-18 among the people that dislike both of them while they cut by a 20-point margin against Hillary Clinton.


So this group of 20% of the electorate, right now, has swung from Trump to Biden by FIFTY POINTS.

4. Probably the most concerning shift for the Trump campaign is the movement of older voters.
From Vox:

If the (Biden) campaign can win or at least significantly cut into the president’s margins with older voters, a traditionally more conservative and reliable bloc that suddenly seems to be turning away from the president. A recent Fox News poll found voters aged 65 and older said they preferred Biden to Trump by 17 points.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll also showed Biden 22 points ahead with women 65 and older (and Trump leading men in the same age group). These polls could certainly change, but they’re worrying sign for Trump, who won older voters by 7 points in 2016.

“Even if Joe Biden cuts the margin of what Trump won [with older voters], because they’re the largest single age group, it is a huge, huge game changer,” said Biden adviser and pollster John Anzalone.


This group is almost 23% of the electorate. Right now we are looking at a 20+ point shift from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020.

5. Suburban women. I don't have any solid numbers here. But it was a big factor for the 2018 midterm wins. So I'm guessing a decent shift in these numbers. Just overall women of all backgrounds - Trump won in 2016 by about 3-5 points. The latest YouGov poll, Biden was up with women over Trump by about 14 points.
 
I think the long term implications of a sustained uprising of the masses has more import than the presidential election. Certainly not to say the president doesn't have a great deal of power and influence, but you can't trickle down revolution. And revolution is the only way to bring real change. This system will not stand for real upheaval of the social order, and fundamentally altering the social order is the only way to get justice.
 
Most Americans aren’t looking for a revolution. But they do want competent government and real progress, as well as the sense that their lives are on the right track and the future will be better than the past, and they’d like to think that their country is using its night to make the world better, albeit imperfectly.

Removing the Orange Man is the most important thing that can happen in 2020. If he is not removed, you better believe that the battle space will be dominated in ways that make this week look like a vacation to Disneyland.
 
supposedly Murkowski has said she's going to have a difficult time supporting Trump in the fall.

i'm sure Collins -- especially if she knows what's good for her -- should start expressing her trademarked "concern" about the same thing, soon.
 
Most Americans aren’t looking for a revolution. But they do want competent government and real progress, as well as the sense that their lives are on the right track and the future will be better than the past, and they’d like to think that their country is using its night to make the world better, albeit imperfectly.

Removing the Orange Man is the most important thing that can happen in 2020. If he is not removed, you better believe that the battle space will be dominated in ways that make this week look like a vacation to Disneyland.
You cannot square the circle of wanting justice and opposing revolution. My hope is that this week and future weeks open people's eyes to that fact. The racial oppression of this system is a feature, not a bug.

I don't mean to say that I think it's more important to focus on toppling capitalism in 2020. Rather, I mean to say that we need real changes that start us on the path to that eventual realization of justice. Government budgets are going to be a huge issue at the local and state levels after all of the resources they had to pour into responding to COVID. The books are open and cuts are being made. Let's start with massive cuts to police budgets. Let's get rid of cash bail. Let's plant these seeds, get people running campaigns on these ideas, and force the issue.

That's what I'm talking about. Attacking the institutions from the ground up with mass protest and public outrage. If we don't do that, I'm afraid the results of the 2020 election are not going to have very much long term impact.
 
Last edited:
You know what would help right wing conspiracy theorists? If they weren't so fucking stupid.

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1268564137610747905
It's entirely an echo chamber. No one outside of the online right takes James O'Keefe seriously any longer. He's the same as Ben Shapiro, Benny Johnson, Candace Owens, and Charlie Kirk. He had his one big success, duping a terrified Democratic Party into killing ACORN. Even his attempt to take down Planned Parenthood ended up having little impact; the attacks on Planned Parenthood at the state level were always part of the plan, as part of the larger hole in the ACA that allows it to be drained dry slowly by a thousand cuts. At this point, all he's doing is revving up people about the same things they would have gotten revved up about anyway.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom