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Old 06-05-2020, 08:48 AM   #141
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If anyone wants a good laugh, or possibly throw your laptop against the wall..

https://twitter.com/ComplexSports/st...51040074383361
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Old 06-05-2020, 08:50 AM   #142
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That man is elderly with a serious head injury, left lifeless and bleeding out of his ear.

Revolting.
I saw that video on Instagram this morning. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. I read that he's in critical condition.

I bet some white people (especially older) who are critical of these protests (on that other forum I post on they called it covid privilege and even criticized the George Floyd service yesterday for lack of masks and distancing. Forum has lots of older white female Trump supporters, thankfully balanced out by those with views like mine) would be all up in arms about the horrific treatment of this white elderly man.

Obviously I'm not saying they shouldn't be, we all should be. But white privilege be like. ..
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:04 AM   #143
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Ok, these new unemployment numbers are complete bullshit.

10 million people lost their jobs in 2008 - unemployment 10%

30 million people were out of a job at the end of April 2020 - unemployment 14.7% (seemed low then)

40 million people out of work at end of May 2020 - unemployment rate 13.3%?????
Experts were estimating 8 million lost jobs and it ends up 2.5 million gained? WTF is going on here.
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:07 AM   #144
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I've always been an admirer of Drew Brees as an athlete and person. What he said was so tone deaf and obviously so poorly timed right now. I posted on his Instagram page that my father is an Army Purple Heart recipient, and he didn't fight for a country that is systemically racist and unequal. I highly doubt he ever has felt or feels disrespected by kneeling athletes. Even with dementia, I bet he'd understand why they're doing it.

My belief is that a flag is a completely meaningless piece of cloth unless it truly represents the ideals that it claims to represent. Same for anthem. What disrespects our troops and our country is to pretend otherwise, keep sticking our heads in the sand, and focus on symbols instead of human beings.

It's just like when Trump was doing that weird flag hugging. With all the crap that comes out of his mouth, and what he tweets, his flag hugging is repulsive. But it works for people who like things to be simple and spoon fed.
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:10 AM   #145
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New Fox News polls out today

Arizona:
Biden. 46%
Trump 42

Kelly (D) 50%
McSally (R) 37

Ohio:
Biden 45%
Trump 43

Wisconsin:
Biden 49%
Trump 40
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:40 AM   #146
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Ok, these new unemployment numbers are complete bullshit.

10 million people lost their jobs in 2008 - unemployment 10%

30 million people were out of a job at the end of April 2020 - unemployment 14.7% (seemed low then)

40 million people out of work at end of May 2020 - unemployment rate 13.3%?????
Experts were estimating 8 million lost jobs and it ends up 2.5 million gained? WTF is going on here.
The loans were working to allow small businesses to keep more people employed and there have been a lot of reopenings and near reopenings... so of course there will be a bump on the other direction.

This is not a real depression/recession (for now at least). It's entirely connected to COVID. As COVID eases, the numbers will to back up.

The issue is what happens when the funds dry up if we aren't fully out of this yet? And when the inevitable bump that comes from a COVID recovery happens, do we respond stupidly in an attempt to "supercharge" the recovery that will ultimately lead to a crash a few years down the road (yes) or will we take a more measured, cautious approach (nah).
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:56 AM   #147
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The loans were working to allow small businesses to keep more people employed and there have been a lot of reopenings and near reopenings... so of course there will be a bump on the other direction.

This is not a real depression/recession (for now at least). It's entirely connected to COVID. As COVID eases, the numbers will to back up.

The issue is what happens when the funds dry up if we aren't fully out of this yet? And when the inevitable bump that comes from a COVID recovery happens, do we respond stupidly in an attempt to "supercharge" the recovery that will ultimately lead to a crash a few years down the road (yes) or will we take a more measured, cautious approach (nah).
I guess my question is. If 10 million people filed for unemployment in May, how does the number come out to 2.5 million jobs added? Is that saying that 12.5 million people went back to work? 12.5 - 10 = 2.5?

I just don't see how these numbers add up. I can see there being 2.5 million jobs coming back, but that would also be in the midst of 10 million more losing their jobs.
Obviously I wouldn't normally doubt these types of numbers but Trump has managed to infiltrate and corrupt pretty much every department of the government, so I think skepticism is warranted.
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:59 AM   #148
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At this point i trust nothing that comes out of our government. I agree that there is to be an expected bump with some reopenings but it’s hard to really know what the actual numbers are or could be when these people lie about everything.

I expect come October we’ll be at 0% unemployment, all time record highs in the stock, and Hunter Biden before Congress to confess to starting WWII
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:23 AM   #149
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yes you can. upon what authority or knowledge do you make such a sweeping statement?
What makes you think this system can be tweaked into working for everyone?
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:23 AM   #150
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Govt says partial reopenings led to rehiring and new hiring in restaurants, hospitality, medical, and other areas.

What also needs to be factored in one day is jobs that will be lost in public education, state and local governments due to future budget cuts. Unless they think they can raise taxes sky high -that won't go over well. Plus they've lost sales tax revenue, lottery proceeds, and other sources of revenue.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:25 AM   #151
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I guess my question is. If 10 million people filed for unemployment in May, how does the number come out to 2.5 million jobs added? Is that saying that 12.5 million people went back to work? 12.5 - 10 = 2.5?

I just don't see how these numbers add up. I can see there being 2.5 million jobs coming back, but that would also be in the midst of 10 million more losing their jobs.
Obviously I wouldn't normally doubt these types of numbers but Trump has managed to infiltrate and corrupt pretty much every department of the government, so I think skepticism is warranted.
Because it's month-to-month. There were 2.5 million more jobs this month than last month. The jobs numbers are intentionally meant to obfuscate what's going on. One of the great successes for the GOP over the last 40-50 years was making employment numbers (along with stock market performance) the indicators of economic success instead of spending power.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:25 AM   #152
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I don't trust the numbers either. Trump will do anything to get reelected, and the GOP will do anything to make that happen.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:26 AM   #153
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Ok, these new unemployment numbers are complete bullshit.

10 million people lost their jobs in 2008 - unemployment 10%

30 million people were out of a job at the end of April 2020 - unemployment 14.7% (seemed low then)

40 million people out of work at end of May 2020 - unemployment rate 13.3%?????
Experts were estimating 8 million lost jobs and it ends up 2.5 million gained? WTF is going on here.
It's because the way you look at unemployment numbers includes three groups - employed, unemployed, and not in the labour force (i.e. unemployed but NOT currently looking for work).

The people not in the labour force were not counted in the unemployment rate in April but they were counted in May because states started to open meaning that those unemployed but not looking for work in April were employed in May.

The unemployment rate formula does not factor in those not in the labour force. Typically the numbers are not that skewed from month to month but there isn't any funny business - it's how it's always been calculated.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:27 AM   #154
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:28 AM   #155
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New Fox News polls out today

Arizona:
Biden. 46%
Trump 42

Kelly (D) 50%
McSally (R) 37
Arizona would be particularly satisfying.

Leave it to the GOP to force a woman who already lost a general state election into the second Senate seat to hopefully lose that one as well. Brilliant.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:33 AM   #156
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Something different is happening this time. Hopeful

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/...53689784786944
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:37 AM   #157
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It's because the way you look at unemployment numbers includes three groups - employed, unemployed, and not in the labour force (i.e. unemployed but NOT currently looking for work).

The people not in the labour force were not counted in the unemployment rate in April but they were counted in May because states started to open meaning that those unemployed but not looking for work in April were employed in May.

The unemployment rate formula does not factor in those not in the labour force. Typically the numbers are not that skewed from month to month but there isn't any funny business - it's how it's always been calculated.
I'm not questioning your explanation here. But if this is the case, why would experts that make these predictions and calculations for a living and should know most about what is happening in the job market, predict 8 million jobs lost? The experts outside of the government are off by 10.5 million?

Are the experts including the people that "should" be counted as unemployed and the government leaving out huge swaths of people by categorizing them in a way to fudge the numbers?
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Old 06-05-2020, 11:14 AM   #158
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What makes you think this system can be tweaked into working for everyone?


You need to define “revolution,” first. What is that? What does it look like? It’s difficult to respond directly until you offer more specifics.


As for me, I believe in democracy and I believe in procedure. You can’t blow up a system by attacking it frontally. There are real and intended constraints that have been put there to guard against “revolution” — and they are there to protect both sides (what’s to stop a right wing “revolution”?) In order to be successful, you must accept and understand these restraints and work within them.

I do think things continue to get better, despite setbacks, like the setback we’re living in now. Life is, by every measure and metric better than it was in 1968, let alone 1938 or 1888. And change sticks when it’s achieved legitimately. Social movements like BLM or same-sex marriage have more success in shorter amounts of time than any of the social movements of the past. And I expect them to continue. Same-sex marriage is very nearly settled law — barring some kind of religious right “revolution” — because it is legitimate. It’s safe. It’s a battle that was won over the course of about a decade (although it’s roots are in the AIDS crisis) and it was won thriguh hearts & minds as well as court cases and legislation. No one imposed it by fiat, and you’ll recall that when Gavin Newsome tried to do as much — “whether you like it or not” — we got Prop 8.

These are tactical disagreements — again, I can only assume, because you’re often short on specifics. We likely share 90%+ of the same end goals. I find the tactics you advocate to be much more likely to end in failure and reversal of progress.
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Old 06-05-2020, 11:16 AM   #159
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I'm not questioning your explanation here. But if this is the case, why would experts that make these predictions and calculations for a living and should know most about what is happening in the job market, predict 8 million jobs lost? The experts outside of the government are off by 10.5 million?
I should clarify, I was strictly talking about the way they calculate numbers, not about whether they are being truthful about the numbers included.

The consensus was definitely far worse than the numbers. But there are a few reasons why I don't think they are necessarily cooking the books. First, if you look at the subcategories, the positive growth is in areas that you'd expect. Second, economic forecasts are basically broken right now. Consensus was also considerably off in March and April, in the other direction - i.e. economists didn't think that the numbers would be as bad as they were. Third, on a per capita basis, the numbers are almost exactly mirroring those in Canada, suggesting that they are reflecting reality.

There are also reasons to doubt - the payroll losses and other weekly data throughout the month of May are at odds with the final numbers. But taken on the whole I think the numbers are probably not as shocking as some people are making them out to be.

The problem is that it really might look like a V-curve recovery through the summer/fall, helping the Orange Menace (undeservedly).
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Old 06-05-2020, 11:19 AM   #160
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And immediately there’s a Trump press conference / rally stating this may be the greatest day ever!!! All because of him!!

The truth is Trump and a lot of red State Governments forced people back into work during a pandemic. Without knowing the full effect it would have on their communities. The virus may appear to have weakened with summer time coming into focus, but we are still losing over 1,000 people per day to this.

But their lives don’t matter to Trump and GOP, only getting out of paying unemployment benefits and creating the illusion of a prosperous economy (despite the reality of 14% unemployment and 20-35 million job losses)

This will give them even more reason to loosen restrictions as we head into the fall. We have seen other countries like South Korea and Germany deal with outbreaks for schools and businesses opening up too soon or opening without knowing how to keep the virus in check. But these countries are also doing so much more in regards to their preparation and diligence with the virus. We are not. And we will see a repeat of Spanish flu if this virus comes back hard in the fall.

Trump congratulating himself and bringing Floyd’s name into his rally was wrong but what do we expect. George is looking down today from heaven and smiling because of the equality that now exists because of Trump

All of this said from his new fortress (White House).

The media will play these sound bites over and over, and people will think things are OK! Masks, we don’t need not stinking masks!! Protesters !!! Why protest, Trump said things are ok! Now you’re just doing it because you’re ANTIFA.

Biden will give remarks on the economic numbers later and i wonder how much coverage itll get. Will it be carried live ?

It’s so difficult to watch all of this unfold again like 2016.

I do have a question that maybe someone we’ll versed in history of democracy can answer

Has a country ever descended towards authoritarian rule like we are, and stopped it before it was too late ?

We still hold the assumption that November election will be fair. That there won’t be national guard + militia standing out front of polling places to scare minorities. That cops won’t issue mass arrests the week or day of the election to curb turnout

I see everything that is going on and i ask how does it stop? How do we win in a rigged game ?
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