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Old 06-24-2020, 10:49 PM   #881
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the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:26 AM   #882
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the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas
That’s what a lot of people think. But I disagree somewhat.
Here’s what people aren’t really thinking through.
What worked for Trump to draw a larger base than he has now? He attacked Obama, a black guy, and Clinton, a woman.
This worked because sadly, racism, fear and unease of blackness, and sexism and misogyny are real and more potent than we might like to admit.
That puts Booker, Harris, Warren, Amy at a disadvantage.
Bloomberg might have been ok because of his money, but to have him as the candidate with a public awakening on racism in policing... oy. Could be a tough one.

Then you have Bernie. He would have faired pretty well I think. But we have to remember why Biden is winning big right now.
Women, African Americans, suburbanites, Seniors and independents.
Bernie was fairly weak with all these, except independents, and extremely weak with seniors. He would have made up some ground with younger voters.
He also had a ready made attack from Trump. It would have been non-stop socialism, communism, no more America as we know it, etc... And yes, he might try say those things about Biden. But for Bernie it would be believable to many, and with Biden it has shown that it is not.

Biden, in the NYT poll has a 39 point lead with women with a degree. All women by 22, And winning independents by 29 points.

I think again like I’ve said before, any of the candidates could win. I just don’t think any could win by a lot and have the down ballot effect that Biden will.

Again, it’s all about the EC.

Bernie probably would be able to pick up WI, MI and PA and win by a whopping 20 points, and probably enter the White House with a minority in the Senate.
I don’t think he would have a chance in FL or NC. He certainly wouldn’t be making OH, TX and GA possible pickups.
AZ might be the only other state that I could see in the mix.

Polls will tighten, changes will happen, and Biden might be the only one that would be able to win decisively in the end.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:31 AM   #883
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Latest NYTimes poll:


MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:49 AM   #884
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the democrats could nominate an inanimate carbon rod and i'm not really sure it would matter very much at this point. bloomberg or sanders would be putting up poll numbers like this too. if only the guy who promised to work on universal health care had been nominated. alas


There’s the Senate. Winning the Senate is almost as important if you want any health care reform. Voters in states with vulnerable GOP incumbents aren’t pining for the revolution.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:51 AM   #885
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Latest NYTimes poll:


MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
We're going to see Trump ramp up racism to 100.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:06 AM   #886
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Sanders stans will say he'd be in the same spot, non Sanders stans will say nah bro, and there's zero chance of proving that either one is correct.

Alas
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:09 AM   #887
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
Latest NYTimes poll:


MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
Wow is about all I can say.

A couple of views on this. One, these have a small sample size and 4 point margin of error. But they are still an A+ pollster. So even if you give 2 points to Trump on these, they are still crushing numbers.

Also, these polls were taken well before Tulsa, well before Az, well before the public has seen record numbers of new cases, well before racist rants.

These numbers could be just the beginning of even worse numbers for Trump.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:49 AM   #888
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
Sanders stans will say he'd be in the same spot, non Sanders stans will say nah bro, and there's zero chance of proving that either one is correct.

Alas


Sounds like a familiar story...
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:52 AM   #889
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Even with everything that has gone on over the past few months, and yes along with the previous 3 years. You still have media and "journalists" straining to make this another 2016. The both-sideism, the using terms about Trump like "unprecedented" or unconventional, and making sure to note that Biden is also a flawed candidate. Yes idiots. EVERY candidate is flawed candidate. But it would be like two cars. One has a broken headlight and scratch on the door, and the other one is on fire.

Since Joe is playing rope-a-dope with Trump, the media and NYT in particular, can't stand it. They need to have this be a close race with bad stories on both sides to feel like they are doing something i guess.

anyway. Great quote from one of my favorite authors.

To be clear, in this analogy, Joe Biden would be a plate of a shit that you've been assured has had the glass picked out of it.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:53 AM   #890
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Sanders stans will say he'd be in the same spot, non Sanders stans will say nah bro, and there's zero chance of proving that either one is correct.

Alas
If you don't think a global pandemic that serves as a referendum for a fragile economy and completely broken healthcare system wouldn't make Bernie Sanders look good in comparison to Donald Trump, you're out of your mind. I know this proves your point because I'm a "Sanders stan" (despite the fact that I'm pretty bitterly pissed at him for how much he's fallen in line AND his refusal to call to defund the police), but it should be stated anyway.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:15 AM   #891
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:18 AM   #892
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Sounds to me like there were some back room Supreme Court deals trading votes lol
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:21 AM   #893
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Could also be judges following the rules of law, regardless of their personal viewpoints.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:22 AM   #894
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Could also being judges following the rules of law, regardless of their personal viewpoints.
Couldn't be! (insert sarcasm emoji here)
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Old 06-25-2020, 11:00 AM   #895
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https://twitter.com/theintercept/sta...014928384?s=21

I’d argue the % should be higher
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Old 06-25-2020, 11:29 AM   #896
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Could also be judges following the rules of law, regardless of their personal viewpoints.


No. RBG is cancelled now. She might as well be Alito.
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Old 06-25-2020, 11:50 AM   #897
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Where’s her statue so we can pull it down???
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Old 06-25-2020, 02:04 PM   #898
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I'm gonna buy this and knock it over:

https://shop.fctry.com/products/ruth...-action-figure
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:40 PM   #899
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https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/st...500109312?s=21

I think they did too and we’ll find out years from now
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:43 PM   #900
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Just a shit load of polls today. Here are the NON-NYT Sienna polls that were listed before.

National

CNBC (A- Rated) - Biden +9

WI -
Biden +9
Biden +17 (Partisan Poll)

MI -
Biden +11
Biden +18 (Partisan Poll)

PA -
Biden +10
Biden +12 (Partisan Poll)

NC -
Biden +6

AZ -
Biden +4

FL -
Biden +4


Also

Kelly +15 in AZ
and
Cunningham +9 in NC

Really wish they would get IA, OH, GA and TX in on these...
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