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Old 06-16-2020, 10:27 AM   #541
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You never want to be sure too early in the game but the consensus seems to be moving in the direction of Michigan no longer being a battleground state. Trump has a million different problems there and my gut feeling tells me he's cooked in that state.

I don't trust Florida for one second to do the right thing so in my view they are deep red until proven otherwise.
No question that all of these polls, both national and state will tighten. Trump is trying to get a 2T bill passed. He knows that the first bill is the reason for the jobs number and he will do anything to get that higher. Then of course the usual. All of the voter suppression tactics.

And to be honest. With these poll numbers, I have little doubt that Trump campaign is in contact with foreign entities about interference.

The only good I take from these is that the larger the lead now, the more Trump has to eat into along the way. The plus is that there are far fewer undecideds this time around. He has fewer voters to pull from than he did in 2016 to climb back up the polls.

If you look back at 2016, There were wild swings in 538 projections over 5 months time. So we will see a swing back at some point. I'm guessing if we see another large jobs number, there will be some sliding back.

Just a side note. Still puzzled that the myth of the polls being totally wrong in 2016 still persists. In November, Clinton was +3.1 over Trump. That's within the standard margin of error. So looking at how the result came out, If Biden can make it to November north of +4 nationally, and +4 or greater in pivotal swing states, he should be ok. My hope is that he is more around +6 but that will be a tall order.
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:44 AM   #542
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Polls really weren't wrong in 2016 - on a national level they were almost bang on. It was the state level that was the issue. Some states were not polled often enough, and pollsters did not amend their approach to reach people who had never been polled and who were neither likely nor registered voters.

The bigger the lead in states and nationally, the better because it will cause massive headaches for downticket races. There are now more than just a couple of Republican Senators chewing their nails. Trump doesn't care about anyone but himself and will absolutely not direct ANY campaign funds to save Susan Collins or Martha McSally or anyone else. So the Republicans have to raise massive amounts of $ for Senate and Congressional races and with each new state that becomes a toss up, those funds have to be spread out over a larger number of people. This is a real problem for McConnell primarily because I think the GOP has given up on the House.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:22 AM   #543
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This is interesting. I was expecting a big fight back and forth in the comments about progressives needing this and Warren is the best fighter, etc...

But reading through, I don't know if I saw one comment that backed Warren. Many, I love Warren, but... Warren was my vote in the primary but...
It was pretty much solidified that Harris is the pick for this moment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...19308561412096

After thinking about it these last couple weeks. There really are only two choices. Warren and Harris.
Biden's number one was having someone ready to be pres on day one. Of all the names, these two are the only ones that fit that bill. I am one of those people. I love Warren very much. But like I said before, to not go with a woman of color right now would be a big misstep in my opinion. But almost two months to decide, may bring a different perspective.
I do think Biden will pass the torch after one term.

Does anyone know how that works if Biden does one term? Does Biden serve out the term and then endorse the VP, and then the VP has to go through the whole primary process again? Could Biden effectively "step down" in the last week or month of the his term and literally make his VP pres??

Anyone smarter than me have any answers on this??
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:23 AM   #544
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And to be honest. With these poll numbers, I have little doubt that Trump campaign is in contact with foreign entities about Interference.
Putin will be paying a visit to Diemen.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:43 AM   #545
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Now that Manafort is in jail, who will give the Russians polling data for MI, WI, and PA?
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:50 AM   #546
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Now that Manafort is in jail, who will give the Russians polling data for MI, WI, and PA?
Gzus
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:51 AM   #547
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Gzus
I think you may be right. He has been suspiciously absent from here. Lots of work for him to do.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:54 AM   #548
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This is interesting. I was expecting a big fight back and forth in the comments about progressives needing this and Warren is the best fighter, etc...

But reading through, I don't know if I saw one comment that backed Warren. Many, I love Warren, but... Warren was my vote in the primary but...
It was pretty much solidified that Harris is the pick for this moment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...19308561412096

After thinking about it these last couple weeks. There really are only two choices. Warren and Harris.
Biden's number one was having someone ready to be pres on day one. Of all the names, these two are the only ones that fit that bill. I am one of those people. I love Warren very much. But like I said before, to not go with a woman of color right now would be a big misstep in my opinion. But almost two months to decide, may bring a different perspective.
I do think Biden will pass the torch after one term.

Does anyone know how that works if Biden does one term? Does Biden serve out the term and then endorse the VP, and then the VP has to go through the whole primary process again? Could Biden effectively "step down" in the last week or month of the his term and literally make his VP pres??

Anyone smarter than me have any answers on this??
I think that Warren would be more useful in a different role than VP. Like I said Senate Majority Leader (this is a dream b/c of Chuck Schumer) or Treasury Secretary. The VP role is not that important BUT let's not forget that Biden is old and may not serve a second term. If he were to die (not to be morbid), Warren would be a far, far better president than Kamala Harris in my view. That's just about the only reason to keep her on the list.

Nobody can tell you how Biden will exit if he decides to serve only one term. He could leave early and "gift" the VP with the power of incumbency, but he'd have to do this fairly early on, like no later than 3 years in. The VP would then participate in the same primary process as an incumbent - obviously though you'd have far more people tossing their hat in should it play out this way so it's not a guaranteed path to nomination.

I don't know what the rules are about stepping down in the month or so before (at some point, ballots are finalized) but that is a terrible idea because even if possible it's ultimately undemocratic.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:04 PM   #549
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I think you may be right. He has been suspiciously absent from here. Lots of work for him to do.
He grew tired of being reminded about the Ordinary Spring
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:09 PM   #550
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This is interesting. I was expecting a big fight back and forth in the comments about progressives needing this and Warren is the best fighter, etc...

But reading through, I don't know if I saw one comment that backed Warren. Many, I love Warren, but... Warren was my vote in the primary but...
It was pretty much solidified that Harris is the pick for this moment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...19308561412096

After thinking about it these last couple weeks. There really are only two choices. Warren and Harris.
Biden's number one was having someone ready to be pres on day one. Of all the names, these two are the only ones that fit that bill. I am one of those people. I love Warren very much. But like I said before, to not go with a woman of color right now would be a big misstep in my opinion. But almost two months to decide, may bring a different perspective.
I do think Biden will pass the torch after one term.

Does anyone know how that works if Biden does one term? Does Biden serve out the term and then endorse the VP, and then the VP has to go through the whole primary process again? Could Biden effectively "step down" in the last week or month of the his term and literally make his VP pres??

Anyone smarter than me have any answers on this??
I've been told by a reporter friend that it's Warren and Harris and any other name being tossed around is merely that person's team trying to promote themselves by making it seem as if they might be a possibilty. And that Kamala is in the lead.

He writes for a periodical or note, so I tend to believe him - even if it means my +1600 bet on Abrams is down the shitter now.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:31 PM   #551
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LOL. You gotta see this asshole talking about his "police reform"

No specifics.
"I'll tell you. We are working on it" We are going to find new powerful non-lethal weapons, cost is no option"
Law Enforcement has told me that we need a tracking system for officers with problems. They say, anything you can do would be great. And I can tell you, we're working on that, in a big way. LOL

Nobody has ever delivered results like we have delivered. Not even close folks. We got it done powerfully.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:38 PM   #552
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This is really good to see. Even with the most blatant voter suppression so far.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1272648445443166210

“Democratic turnout in Georgia has surpassed 1,060,851 – the previous high-mark set during the 2008 presidential primary.”
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Old 06-16-2020, 01:04 PM   #553
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I've been told by a reporter friend that it's Warren and Harris and any other name being tossed around is merely that person's team trying to promote themselves by making it seem as if they might be a possibilty. And that Kamala is in the lead.


congratulations. with this post, you've officially become a credible resident of Washington DC, where we get (usually correct) political info from our friends, neighbors, and hairdressers before anyone else.
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Old 06-16-2020, 01:05 PM   #554
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congratulations. with this post, you've officially become a credible resident of Washington DC, where we get (usually correct) political info from our friends, neighbors, and hairdressers before anyone else.
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Old 06-16-2020, 02:06 PM   #555
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Larry Kudlow thinks systemic racism doesn't exist because white people voted for Obama, twice. The rest of the interview is just as ignorant.

Typical white privilege guy
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Old 06-16-2020, 02:47 PM   #556
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Larry Kudlow thinks systemic racism doesn't exist because white people voted for Obama, twice. The rest of the interview is just as ignorant.

Typical white privilege guy
That was embarrassing to watch. white privilege at its highest and most ignorant.

p.s. - Can we all agree that we dodged a bullet with Bloomberg not getting the nomination.
I believe he would have been.. how do you say??? Fucked.
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:28 PM   #557
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And that Kamala is in the lead.
my +1600 bet on Abrams is down the shitter now.
The House always wins in the end.
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Old 06-16-2020, 03:29 PM   #558
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The House always wins in the end.
Ain't that the truth
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Old 06-16-2020, 04:27 PM   #559
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Does anyone know how that works if Biden does one term? Does Biden serve out the term and then endorse the VP, and then the VP has to go through the whole primary process again? Could Biden effectively "step down" in the last week or month of the his term and literally make his VP pres??

Anyone smarter than me have any answers on this??
Biden would serve out the term, but most definitely would announce early enough that he wouldn't run for re-election and throw his support behind his VP, thereby making the primary process a moot point - it would essentially be the same as an incumbent running for re-election.

Of course, if there was a universal dislike for the VP that fractured the Democratic party, then all bets are off. The last time a sitting President decided not to run (Johnson in 1968), it was wide open as the country had turned on LBJ and his VP, Hubert Humphrey, especially when Robert Kennedy joined the fray.
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Old 06-16-2020, 05:07 PM   #560
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People were hinting yesterday that today was going to be a bad day for Trump.

I was guessing it was the FL and MI polling.
Which I’m sure it was.

But I just saw Georgia- Biden +2

And just for a kicker. Mississippi - Trump is up just 9.
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